Ag Weather Forum

The 2025 wildfire season in Canada is off to an explosive start after a very warm and dry winter and spring. Published reports as of late Sunday, June 1 show more than 170 active wildfires in Canada, mainly in the provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan. More than 90 of those fires were assessed as "out of control" Thursday, May 29. Fires have also erupted in northern sectors of British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario provinces.

At least 1.5 million acres have been burned by the fires, according to Canada's Interagency Forest Fire Centre. That area is comparable in size to the U.S. state of Delaware. Fires have forced thousands of residents in the provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta to evacuate, including the entire populations of two towns, and reports point to two deaths from the fires. In addition, Manitoba has a state of emergency for the next 30 days due to the impact of the wildfires, and Metis Nation, Saskatchewan, has declared a state of emergency because of forced evacuations from the fires.

Away from the burning, smoke from the fires is affecting air quality in both Canada and the U.S. The weekend of May 30-June 1 featured hazardous air quality index values from North Dakota south to Georgia. The entire state of Minnesota was under an Air Quality Alert through the entire weekend. One resident of the Minneapolis-St. Paul area described the nighttime air as having "that campfire smell."

Fires in Canada's northern forests are not unusual. However, the areas where the wildfires are burning are tinder-ready because of heat and dryness. The latest world climate report from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) notes that temperatures in January-April 2025 were at least 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 deg Fahrenheit) higher than the 1991-2020 average. The report also finds "record-high January-April temperatures were present across northern parts of Canada and its surrounding ocean ...." The heat did not stop in April, either. Winnipeg, Manitoba, temperatures on Tuesday, May 15, soared to 37 degrees C (99 degrees F), breaking a 125-year record for the date and very close to setting a new all-time record for the month of May. Climate research has found Canada is warming at about twice the global average.

Precipitation is also lacking. NOAA's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) analysis finds, so far this year, precipitation in Manitoba and Saskatchewan has been mainly below normal. January was the only month so far with above-normal precipitation, featuring above-normal amounts in the northern sectors of the two provinces. Drying was accelerated by the heat, a possible signal of flash drought conditions in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

The months of May through September are the most active wildfire months in Canada. Canada's worst-ever wildfire season during these months occurred in 2023 when more than 6,500 fires burned an estimated 45.7 million acres across the country; the largest burn total in recorded North American history. Research on the carbon emissions of those fires found that only India, China and the U.S. released more carbon from fossil fuel emissions that year.

Details from DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick on a hot and dry forecast for the summer crop season are available here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.