Ag Weather Forum

Some areas of the Mid-South and Midwest continue to deal with flooding and excessive wetness after two weeks of relatively dry weather. The Lower Mississippi and Ohio rivers, as well as some other local rivers that feed them, are still in flood stage. Water levels are forecast to fall over the next week, but those forecasts do not include rainfall beyond the next 48 hours. You can find those forecasts from the National Weather Service here: https://water.noaa.gov/…. And unfortunately, there is more rain forecast beyond that timeframe that could exacerbate the flooding.

Though it has been quiet lately, the weather pattern is about to get more active, with several systems forecast to move through the middle of the country through the end of April. One moving through April 17-18 will not produce much rainfall in those wetter areas, but some thunderstorms are forecast to move through Missouri and Illinois on April 17 and could produce some limited areas of heavy rainfall and hail. The issue with this system is that it will cause a cold front to stall out from the Southern Plains through the Midwest for a couple of days before another system wipes it out April 20-21. Widespread and nearly continuous rainfall is forecast April 18-20 generally from eastern Oklahoma through central Indiana during that time frame. Models are forecasting between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall during that time frame. But with training thunderstorms, those that build and pass over the same areas for long periods of time, some streaks of heavier rainfall will be possible in these areas.

These areas saw moderate rainfall in early April, but the heaviest rain fell to the south of the current forecast area. Large areas of Arkansas through Kentucky saw 10 to 15 inches of rainfall and caused the catastrophic flooding that the Mississippi and Ohio rivers are still busy trying to drain. While the current forecast is slightly north of this region, all that water will need to flow through the Lower Mississippi and Ohio rivers at some point, prolonging or worsening the flooding as well as causing some flooding of its own.

Other systems are also forecast to move through next week into the end of April. They may or may not hit these overly wet areas. Models are not certain about which areas are likely to be hit from them, but they will be moving through and could add to the water burden that will need to be worked through.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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