Ag Weather Forum

The spring season is here in meteorological records with the calendar now in the month of March. The seasonal arrival of spring in the Northern Hemisphere will be Thursday, March 20. Corn planting is either underway in the southern U.S. or will be soon, depending on moisture. The Texas crop progress report for the week of Feb. 24 to March 3, released on March 3, 2025, noted, "In the Edwards Plateau, some producers were waiting for rain before planting row crops." (The Edwards Plateau is the geographic crossroads of central, south and west Texas.)

Ahead of the full-on fieldwork activity, a look at the top five weather analog years in DTN's long-range weather assessment shows how corn yields may perform. The top five weather analog years identified are 2001, 2012, 2013, 2018 and 2021. These years mostly had yields which were at or above the long-term trendline, with 2012 a notable exception.

Here are the adjusted corn yields for those weather analog years.

-- In 2021, the yield came in at 176.7 bushels per acre (bpa), 5.3 bpa above the previous year and slightly above trendline.

-- 2018's yield of 176.4 bpa was 0.2 bpa below the previous year but well above trendline.

-- 2012 was a harsh exception with a yield of 123.1 bpa, 23.7 bpa lower than the previous year and the lowest yield since 1995.

-- 2001's yield at 138.2 bpa was slightly above trendline and 1.3 bpa more than the previous year.

-- 2013, at 158.1 bpa, was slightly lower than trendline but surpassed 2012 by 35 bushels per acre.

It's interesting to look at highlights in or around these analog years. Here's a quick rundown.

-- 2021 followed 2020, which featured the extreme Midwest derecho.

-- 2018 was a favorable year for both moisture and temperature in many respects.

-- 2012 served as the exclamation point of a calamitous drought stretch.

-- 2001 followed a harsh drought year, particularly in the western Corn Belt.

-- 2013 brought a recovery from the bone-dry 2012, punctuated by heavy rains and flooding during the spring season.

This summary is another reminder that volatile events are an essential part of the U.S. crop weather scene over the next six months.

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick offers details on the outlook for this upcoming growing season here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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