Ag Weather Forum

Though my friends in Canada and the Northeast will probably disagree, we have not seen a large storm system produce heavy snow yet this winter. We are not very deep into it though, and I'm sure we'll see a few of them this winter season, but nothing major has occurred yet. Light snow and lake-effect events have dominated so far. However, a clipper system currently moving through the eastern Pacific Ocean will change that up a little bit.

Like most clippers do, this one will move quickly, getting into the Canadian Prairies on Wednesday, Dec. 18, moving through the northern U.S. on Thursday, Dec. 19, and exiting into the Atlantic on Friday, Dec. 20. Several impacts from the storm are expected, which could cause issues for travel and cleanup.

Snowfall is usually the first topic of concern with these clippers. They are usually shorter duration, but have intense rates, making for quick hitters of heavy snow. Clippers tend to produce a broad band of light snow with a focused band of heavier snow in the middle, about 50 to 100 miles wide. This clipper will put down a band of snow from east-central Alberta through southern Saskatchewan, crossing through North Dakota and through Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Generally, 2 to 5 inches (5 to 13 centimeters) of snow can be expected within this band. However, the most intense part of the snow will be along the western end of the snow band, where the low will be the strongest and still carry some of the moisture that it picked up from the Pacific. Peak accumulations of 6 to 10 inches (15 to 25 centimeters) will be possible in Saskatchewan and North Dakota, dwindling down to 4 to 7 inches in Minnesota and 3 to 6 inches in Wisconsin and Michigan. Additional snow may come from lake-effect that lingers behind the system across the Great Lakes over the weekend, and another small clipper that moves through the same general areas on Friday across the southern Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains.

Temperatures on the southern edge of the snow band may be warm enough in the air to produce rain, but still too cold at the surface that could cause a mix of precipitation types and freezing rain. South Dakota looks like the state most at risk of this occurring.

Like most clippers, winds will be quite breezy, especially across the Northern Plains, where wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are likely. As the storm weakens going across the Midwest on Thursday, wind gusts will fall more into the 20 to 30 mph range. That should be similar for the northern side of the storm in the Canadian Prairies as well.

But those winds will send colder air that has been building in the Canadian Prairies southeastward through the U.S. following the low passage. Though not as intense as some of the previous arctic blasts over the last couple of weeks, temperatures will fall 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit (about 10 to 15 degrees Celsius) from where they are now in the Plains and Midwest, with highs in the single digits F (minus 12 to minus 18 C) in the eastern Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains, to the 20s and 30s F for the Midwest. The cold shot will not last long, only a span of about 2 to 3 days, and warmer air will flood these regions again before Christmas. This clipper could give these areas the white Christmas some folks would enjoy, if it doesn't all melt beforehand.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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