Ag Weather Forum

The past four weeks, with the final days of October and the month of November, have seen a dramatic turn in rainfall and soil moisture fortunes in most of the central U.S. Estimated rainfall totals in the southwestern Plains run as much as eight times the normal amount. The Central Plains and the western Midwest have taken in an estimated two to four times the normal amounts of precipitation. Portions of the Northern Plains have logged up to twice the normal amount of precipitation.

The rain fell on winter wheat fields with warm soils for soaking up the moisture, and crop conditions responded. "Recent precipitation has been able to reduce drought significantly over the last few weeks, favorable for winter wheat that is starting to go dormant," DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick noted in a weather commentary Friday, Nov. 22. Indeed, winter wheat ratings as compiled by USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey show a condition index that is the highest in this decade of the 2020s. That is a sharp departure from the value in the week of Oct. 26, when winter wheat ratings were the second lowest of this decade, with only 2022 showing lower ratings.

Drought improvement in the Central and Southern Plains is especially noteworthy. Portions of southwestern Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas have seen up to four categories of drought easing since mid-October according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This improvement meant a move all the way from Extreme Drought (D3) to no drought in some areas. The latest winter wheat good-to-excellent crop ratings for these states as of Sunday, Nov. 23, were Kansas 55%, Oklahoma 48% and Texas 52%.

Rainfall in the past 30 days has been more variable in the Northern Plains, with corresponding mixed assessments on the moisture situation ahead of winter. "Poor emergence in winter wheat and cover crops and other fall-planted crops has been significant. Also of concern is what this dry fall soil means for spring forage and range production, as those deep roots rely on stored soil moisture ... Behind April precipitation, fall moisture the year before is the second most important factor in forage production," South Dakota State Climatologist Laura Edwards said in an email. The latest South Dakota good-to-excellent rating for winter wheat was 24%.

Further north, North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritchison is pleased with how recent rains have improved the moisture profile in that state's primary crop sector. "Eastern North Dakota had enough rain in November to saturate the top 4-8 inches of soil," Ritchison said in an email. "Eastern North Dakota is now fine and set up well for spring planting. Western North Dakota is going into 'stasis' -- no inputs or outputs until next March. If they get a good rain in the spring, they will recover ... I see no need for concern at this time as nothing will change until next spring," he said.

The late fall rain is especially timely as forecasts call for a surge of cold air across much of the central U.S. during the next week. Precipitation monitoring will now focus on snowfall occurrences and amounts as we move into the meteorological winter season Sunday, Dec. 1.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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