Ag Weather Forum

What was a wet and drought-reducing spring and early summer has become a hot and stressful end to the 2024 campaign. A very hot and largely dry July was a killer for a lot of the cropland in the Canadian Prairies. Though the region needed some warmth after very cool and wet conditions in May and June, the complete lack of meaningful rainfall quickly forced shallow-rooted crops to use up the available soil moisture in July.

The worst conditions have been in the southwestern quadrant of the region, as southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan have faced the most intense heat. During July, much of the region has seen less than 50 millimeters (2 inches) of precipitation. In southern Alberta, it has been mostly less than 15 mm (0.60 inches) and some areas haven't seen a drop. Large swaths of Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba have also seen less than 25 mm (about 1 inch). Areas to see more than 50 mm and thus near or slightly above normal rainfall were in eastern Manitoba and in parts of the Peace region in Alberta. But for a lot of the countryside, July 2024 ranks in the Top 10 driest Julys on record.

Crop reports from the region are a telling story. Though crop conditions in Manitoba are still labelled fair or good on the whole, the concern going forward is for soil moisture during filling. In Saskatchewan, the combination of hot and dry has rapidly advanced crop development and significantly reduced soil moisture. After being ahead of normal for the early part of the season, topsoil moisture is now rated 59% short or very short and stress and yield loss are being noted. In Alberta, the combination of hot and dry led to further declines in crop conditions, falling from 73% good to excellent down to just 55% as of July 23. The July 30 report was not yet published as of this article being written, but it should be safe to say that conditions have fallen for yet another week.

There is some relief coming this weekend through next week. A front will drop south into the region Aug. 2-3. Mild temperatures will fill in behind the front. A low-pressure center will develop along the tail of that front in Alberta or northwest Montana Aug. 4 and then spread showers throughout the southwest corner of the region into Aug. 5. Rainfall amounts up to 50 mm may be possible, though most areas should see somewhere in the range of 10-25 mm (0.4-1.0 inch).

Another burst of mild or even cool air will drop down into the region with another front Aug. 6-7 and scattered showers will follow that system through as well. Temperatures could be 3-8 degrees Celsius (5-15 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal on a couple of days next week. And showers may be scattered in the region going into that weekend of Aug. 10-11.

But the damage has likely been done. After a month of hot conditions and stress, much of the crop has reached or is reaching maturity. The relief that is coming is too late for any of the crop that was planted early or even on-time. Small portions of the crop that were planted late will be able to take advantage, and some of the longer-season corn and soybean crops in the east may benefit from easier conditions.

But for many in the region, this year's production has already been locked in. The more active conditions moving in this weekend and throughout next week may be more of a hindrance to the harvest than a benefit to a filling crop.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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