Ag Weather Forum

Slow and Cold Harvest

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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Southeastern Plains and northern Delta crop areas are in line for heavy precipitation in the next week. The rest of the Midwest and the Plains are drier. (DTN graphic)

Latest crop progress numbers show corn and soybean harvest running at least 10-14 days behind normal. The lack of maturity in the crop is reflected in moisture content of corn and soybeans higher than usual for this time of the year with some producers looking at artificial drying.

The weather pattern during the next seven days will allow for some harvest progress, but minimal drying. The pattern will feature frequent episodes of light precipitation favoring northern areas. Temperatures will vary; milder out ahead of systems, colder behind them. We do begin to run into some model disagreement in the 8-10-day period, with the European model showing more trough developing over the Rockies and Plains, while the U.S. model maintains more trough over the eastern U.S. If the U.S. model verifies, it would mean a continuation of the current pattern. If the European model verifies, it could be mean an increase in precipitation.

Southern Plains winter wheat planting is nearly complete. Soil moisture supplies are much lower than they were a year ago when they were adequate to surplus in the major producing areas, but not dry enough to put any significant stress on the crop. Some beneficial rain is expected over southern areas during midweek.

In Brazil, rainfall in the past week was varied. The far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul had heavy rainfall, including possible flooding. South-central crop areas in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul had little to no appreciable rain. Farther north, Mato Grosso and Goias had light to moderate rain, with some heavy amounts in far western Mato Grosso. The seven-day forecast offers a daily chance for shower and thunderstorm activity, which offers timely and beneficial rain. Brazil soybean planting is reported at 46 percent finished, slightly ahead of average.

Central Argentina had rain during the past week, offering favorable soil moisture. A dry pattern in the next seven days will allow for corn-planting progress, which is running behind average.

Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperature departure in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for the month of October was 0.6 degree Celsius above normal. This is a full 1.0 degree Celsius change, rising from a minus 0.4 degree C value during the month of September. The rapid warming trend continues, with the greatest warming showing up over western portions of the eastern Pacific.

Mike Palmerino

(ES/CZ)

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