Ag Weather Forum

OMAHA (DTN) -- The state of Missouri is not technically part of the Plains hard red winter wheat belt. But an upper-atmosphere pattern change in February that broke the drought of 2012 in Missouri also brought some good moisture to an area from central Texas to north-central Kansas -- and improved winter wheat prospects as well.

"There were three major storms at the end of February with a lot of precipitation -- heavy snow, and not much of a frost line," said Missouri State Climatologist Pat Guinan.

Wheat harvest in the U.S. Southern Plains began late due to slow development caused by drought and a cold pattern during the spring. But the switch to heavier precipitation from late January onward has been notable. Harvest reports from south-central Kansas through northern and central Oklahoma, and earlier in Texas, noted better-than-expected yields. Yield monitor logs of more than 40 bushels per acre have been common, with some fields topping 60 bpa.

Farther west, however, the situation is much less favorable. Drought is still dominant from southwestern Kansas south through the Texas Panhandle and west across the southern Rockies and the Colorado Plateau. In these areas, wheat will either yield very poorly or in some cases has been abandoned because of drought.

"There's a surprising difference in just a 50-to-60-mile distance," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino. "Just looking at soil moisture profiles back on June 1, the southwest crop district was 98% short to very short on topsoil moisture, but south-central Kansas was only 26% short to very short. So, you went from almost none to mostly adequate."

Farther north, there's a much different situation in spring wheat areas of the U.S. and the Canadian Prairies. Since late winter, these sections of North America have had some of the wettest months on record. In North Dakota, private projections indicate that possibly 800,000 acres of hard red spring wheat acreage were not planted due to wet fields. The Prairies have seen similar heavy precipitation occurrences.

"In Alberta and Saskatchewan, rainfall has been as high as 200% of normal during the past month or so," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Doug Webster. "Saskatchewan appears to be bearing the brunt of problems where portions of the province have recorded the wettest April and May on record." Still, the Canadian spring wheat acreage is more than 12% higher than last year, according to Statistics Canada.

HIGHER PRODUCTION IN OTHER COUNTRIES

The international scope of wheat production is taking on a major role in determining the crop's market fortunes. Areas such as Ukraine, Russia, Europe and Australia are either harvesting better crops or are anticipating higher production than in the past year or two. Early harvest results in Russia, for example, are running 40% higher than 2012, when drought in eastern Europe and western Asia hit crop output hard.

"Western Europe had high-latitude blocking high pressure that kept sending in moisture during the spring, and even with cooler temperatures, the overall impact was for better production," said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Joel Burgio. "Ukraine and western Russia came into the spring with heavy snowpack moisture, and since then they've had a series of storm systems that brought more rain to that region."

Australia is also starting out its wheat cycle with better soil moisture due to a vacillating Pacific Ocean temperature and barometric pressure pattern.

"There have been some times this year when the Pacific acted like La Nina was going to go on, and that pattern was favorable for rainfall in the eastern Australia belt," Burgio said. "And then in West Australia, their rainfall usually depends on some El Nino type of pattern, and there's been that feature as well, so there's been something for everybody." USDA projects Australia wheat output in 2013-14 at 24.50 million metric tons versus just over 22 mmt production in 2012-13.

The larger supply prospect for wheat shows up in its market trend potential as well. Whereas as recently as three years ago wheat helped to light the fuse for a big rally in the grain markets, it's a completely different story in 2013. On June 25, Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures posted the lowest close in more than a year.

"I would say the July forecast is ... modestly bearish for wheat," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@telventdtn.com

(ES/SK/CZ)

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