Ag Policy Blog

Rebuilding Ukraine's ability to export grain is a key component of President Donald Trump's proposed peace framework for ending the war with Russia, U.S. officials said Monday to foreign reporters.

The Kyiv Post reported on a briefing organized by the Foreign Press Center on the Ukraine negotiations.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Waltz told reporters Monday that Ukraine must remain "economically viable" in any deal. That includes protecting shipping in the Black Sea, ensuring Ukraine can move goods down the Dnipro River and maintaining operations at the Port of Odesa, the Kyiv Post reported.

"These elements are factored into the negotiations taking place right now," Waltz said.

USDA Undersecretary for Trade Luke Lindberg also said, "the long-term stability of Ukraine" remains a priority for USDA and the U.S. government wants "Ukrainian farmers to be successful" even as the Trump administration presses to increase U.S. commodity exports. Lindberg said those positions are not at odds with each other.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country backs much of the peace deal, though more work is needed to complete the plan, and he would like to meet in person again with President Donald Trump to reach a deal. Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders see the 28-point plan proposed by the Trump administration as forcing Ukraine to give up territory to Russia.

The Trump administration's framework also has drawn some congressional critics, including Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who said on social media the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians polled earlier this fall reject plans that would forfeit territory to Russia.

"The most basic reality on the ground is that the price of peace matters. A deal that rewards aggression wouldn't be worth the paper it's written on. America isn't a neutral arbiter, and we shouldn't act like one," McConnell stated on X.

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., also said on X that "Congress must be more proactive on Ukraine." Bacon called the 28-point plan one that "would have been disastrous to our nation's honor and undermined European and our national security. We cannot sit on the sidelines any longer."

Russia has continued to ramp up drone and missile strikes in Ukraine, primarily targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. A drone strike hit Kyiv on Tuesday, killing at least seven people, the New York Times reported.

An update from World to Rebuild Rural Ukraine (WRR Ukraine) this week highlighted that Russia continues to occupy about 42,850 square miles of Ukraine -- just slightly smaller than the state of Tennessee, and roughly 10% of Ukraine's total territory.

As of Nov. 20, Ukraine's exports of grains and oilseeds reached 11.15 million metric tons (mmt), which is down 6 mmt from the same period last year. At 6.9 mmt, wheat exports are down 20% from last year. Corn exports are 2.9 mmt, less than half of last year's exports, WRR Ukraine reported.

Typically, about 93% of Ukraine's exports were sent to seaports for shipping, but Ukraine is relying more heavily on rail shipments, which are 30% higher than a year ago.

Ukrainian farmers have harvested 50.9 mmt of grain crops this fall, of which wheat makes up 22.9 mmt and corn accounts for 20.8 mmt. Barley comes in third at 5.4 mmt. Farmers also harvested 9 mmt of sunflowers and 4.7 mmt of soybeans.

The U.S. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) pegs Ukraine's wheat production at 23 mmt with exports at 15 mmt for the 2025-26 crop year. Ukraine's corn production is projected at 32 mmt with exports at 24.5 mmt, according to the WASDE.

Farmers also have planted 6.39 million hectares (15.8 million acres) of winter crops, which is about 97.5% of what was forecast. The vast majority of those acres were planted into winter wheat.

Ukrainians continue clearing mines from more than 106,000 acres that have been surveyed since the beginning of year as well.

Also see World to Rebuild Rural Ukraine: https://www.wrru.org/…

Kyiv Post: https://www.kyivpost.com/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

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