Technically Speaking

Rhett Montgomery
DTN Lead Analyst

What goes up must come down -- it's a tale as old as time, and the soybean market in late 2026 is no exception to the rule. After an incredible late-summer rally in which most active soybean futures moved over the $13.00 level for the first time since 2023, improved yield prospects and rapid profit-taking on what was near-record futures length have sent prices crashing back to Earth through the fall of 2026.

Short-term market momentum remains bearish, with January 2027 futures headed for an eighth straight lower day, barring a midweek reversal. Looking at the longer-term charts, however, reveals a surprisingly supportive setup for soybean futures heading into the final weeks of 2026.

First and foremost, January futures have thus far responded well to Wednesday's drop below the $12.00 mark for the first time since mid-August, quickly recovering back above the level through overnight trade. Just below $12.00, long-term trendline support -- dating back to the second half of 2025 -- awaits as well.

This will be a significant technical test for the market in the coming days, as a break below this immediate trend would likely set the June lows below $11.50 as the market's next target. A footing here, combined with oversold technical conditions, could inspire the start of a post-harvest price rally.

To the upside, however, the soybean market faces a challenging path. Noncommercial traders have looked to significantly reduce their long-side exposure over the past month, and Friday's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data could very well show net length roughly half of the near-record held in mid-September. Formerly bullish traders are looking for some sort of spark to regain confidence, with very strong export sales to China through October doing little in that regard.

However, over the past two years, speculator selloffs have proved to be limited, and the overall trend has been one of length building. Now, with the U.S. soybean harvest in its final stages with a record-large crop expected, yield prospects for the 2027 Brazilian crop will likely be the pivotal decision point for traders and the market's next chance at a significantly bullish (or bearish) price move.

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Comments above are for educational purposes only and are not meant as specific trade recommendations. The buying and selling of commodities, futures or options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone.

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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