Sort & Cull

Before the steamy month of July fades completely out of sight in the rearview mirror, I feel the need to pay tribute to a fallen statistical soldier of midsummer, a lonely and oft-maligned data series cut down in its prime by budget-bailing bureaucrats.

Of course, I'm talking about the recently terminated midyear cattle inventory.

When it became clear earlier this year that the sequester would necessitate significant belt-tightening throughout Washington, the USDA got busy cleaning closets and planning rummage sales.

Although I can't believe the elimination of various commodity reports actually saved much money, it's easy to imagine how the July 1 cattle count (along with potato stocks, the mink report, hops estimates and chickpea assessment) was perceived as low-hanging fruit by would-be government cost-cutters.

Almost since this data series began in 1976, it was a favorite target for market analysts and beef producers hurling insults. Anytime government enumerators admit that survey methods are done on the cheap (i.e., the July 1 sampling was much smaller and more limited than the January 1 inventory) they're just asking for brickbats and rotten tomatoes.

Indeed, given the rich tradition of derisive catcalls following the midyear herd assessment (e.g., "the calf crop can't be that big," "bred heifers have been counted twice," "the balance sheet through the first of the year is now just insane"), you might think the USDA's tough cattle audience wouldn't lament the report's demise any more than an old dog misses fleas.

Yet often we never appreciate things until they're gone.

Furthermore, this summer's explosive combination of plunging corn prices and rocketing feeder cattle sales makes me especially lonesome for the July 1 inventory.

Stetson's off to Derrell Peel, agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University, and LMIC analysts Jim Robb and Katelyn McCullock for recognizing the new black hole in herd size assessment and searching for an alternative flashlight. Seizing the statistical day, they took the initiative to canvass top analysts for best estimates of midyear cattle numbers.

On average, here's what the private survey found: all cows, off 1%-2%; beef cows, off 2%; dairy cows, off 0.5%; heifers kept for replacement, unchanged; and feeder cattle outsides of feedlots on July 1, off 2%.

As long as we're reduced to throwing private darts on the board, my own estimate of the 2013 calf crop is 33.5 million head, roughly 2.5% smaller than last year. If I'm right, the fact that big lot placement in the first half of the year was near even with Jan-Jun 2012, coupled with 20% drop in feeder imports during the same period, could mean that the July 1 feeder pool was more like 3%-4% smaller than the previous year.

To be sure, a survey of spreadsheet estimates is not the same as a scientific collection of real-life information from actual calf-pulling ranchers. But sometimes you're just forced to make lemonade from whatever yellow fruit you can find.

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(AG)