Canada Markets

There were few changes in Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) latest supply and demand estimate as seen in the November Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops.

Two estimate changes affecting trade that did appear are a 200,000 metric ton (mt) reduction in corn imports and 200,000 mt lower for barley exports. This month's report is released just days ahead of the Dec. 4 Statistics Canada production estimates.

Canada's barley exports for 2023-24 have been revised from 2.930 million metric tons (mmt) to 2.730 mmt, down 1.152 mmt from the volume exported in 2022-23. This comes as the International Grains Council estimates global barley production to be the lowest in five years at 143 mmt. Global consumption is estimated to be the lowest in five years at 145.9 mmt with global consumption exceeding global production for the second time in three years and the fifth time in 10 years.

Global trade in barley is forecast to reach a four-year low at 28.7 mmt, with Australia expected to export less but gaining share in China due to repaired trade relations. Russia's exports are forecast to increase by 8% year-over-year. Global stocks are forecast to potentially fall to the lowest since 1995-96, or 28 years.

For Canada, the lower revision in exports has led to an upward revision of 200,000 mt in forecast feed use to 4.9 mmt, with ending stocks to remain near historic lows at 550,000 mt. Note the 628,400 mt of licensed exports as of week 15 remains behind the steady pace needed to reach the revised forecast of 2.730 mmt, which may lead to increasing availability for domestic feed markets.

AAFC also revised lower it forecast corn imports by 200,000 mt to 2.8 mmt. As of Nov. 9, USDA reports open sales of 535,500 mt of corn to Canada and 249,400 mt of accumulative exports since Sept. 1. Total commitments are seen at 784,900 mt (open sales plus actual exports) or 225% higher than the same period last crop year. At the same time, the 249,400 mt of U.S. exports from Sept. 1-Nov. 9 remains behind the steady pace needed to reach the 2.8 mmt forecast released this month.

AAFC reduced its forecast for Canada's feed use of corn by 200,000 mt to 10.093 mmt, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 2 mmt.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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