Canada's ending grain stocks for all crops other than corn and soybeans, as of July 31, will be released on Sept. 7.
From the week 52 Canadian Grain Statistics Weekly, we see that the commercial stocks of both flax, 46,800 metric tons (mt) and canola (566,600 mt) are already higher than Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's total estimated ending stocks for 2021-22. Of the select crops on the attached graphic, we also see that the week 52 commercial stocks of durum are only 4,100 mt below the estimated carryout of 450,000 mt for the crop year, which indicates that durum stocks are likely well above AAFC's current estimated volume.
Based on the three-year average relationship between the CGC's reported commercial stocks as of July 31 to the total ending stocks for the crop year, ending stocks for select crops for 2021-22 are estimated, as seen by the blue bars on the attached chart.
This study would indicate stocks of the select crops will come in higher than estimated by AAFC, with all but canola relatively close to the existing government forecast, as indicated by the brown bars.
The model simply does not work for canola, estimating stocks at 2.1 million metric tons (mmt). Over the past three crop years, commercial stocks of canola in licensed facilities averaged 26.4% of total canola ending stocks, which ranged from 1.7 mmt to a significant 4.4 mmt. A combination of tighter supplies and record prices in 2021-22 will have pulled both commercial and farm stocks sharply lower, significantly diverging from the historical relationship between commercial stocks and total stocks.
A further test of stocks will be seen in activity leading up to harvest. With limited harvest activity expected on the Prairies in the next few weeks, grain deliveries into the handling system ahead of harvest will be a test of what is expected to be already tight farm stocks.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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