Week 43 Canadian Grain Commission statistics, covering the week ending May 29, shows deliveries of the principal field crops rose from 300,700 metric tons in week 42 to 340,300 mt. As seen on the attached chart, weekly deliveries in 2020-21 reached a low in week 41, following spring seeding, trended higher for three consecutive weeks, to week 44, while then drifted lower during the balance of the crop year.
Recent 2021-22 data shows a potential short-term low of 300,700 mt delivered in week 42, while time will tell if a short-term surge will see increased volumes delivered. A stretch of drier weather forecast for the eastern Prairies may allow increased access to bins and facilitate movement.
A quick study of cumulative volumes delivered to date by select crops shows cumulative volumes of wheat delivered into licensed elevators over 43 weeks equal to 60% of the available farm stocks, defined as Statistics Canada's estimated farm stocks as of July 31 added to Statistics Canada's estimated production for 2022. This is in line with the three-year average of 60.5% delivered during this period.
When this study is switched to durum, an estimated 76.5% of the durum has been delivered during the 43 weeks, which is ahead of the three-year average of 67.7% although close to the calculation for week 43 in 2020-21 which shows 76.9% delivered. An estimated 91.6% of the estimated canola farm supplies have been delivered during the 43 weeks, which bears watching. If we peg July 31 farm stocks at 168,000 mt, the lowest number reported by Statistics Canada during the past 20 years, less than 108,000 mt/week of producer deliveries are needed to achieve the current forecasts based on official estimates.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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