Canadian crushers processed 785,725 metric tons of canola seed in September, the lowest volume reported in 12 months but still the largest September crush on record. This volume is 2.4% or 18,059 mt higher than September 2019, and 6.4% or 47,501 mt higher than the three-year average.
As seen on the chart, this volume is below the steady pace needed to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimate of 9.8 million metric tons for the crop year, as indicated by the horizontal green line at 816,667 mt, although activity tends to dip in September as well as February.
Over the first two months of the crop year, 1.616 mmt has been crushed, up 1.7% from 2019-20 and 9.8% higher than the three-year average.
It is interesting to note that AAFC's October estimates included an upward revision for 2020-21 canola exports of 350,000 mt to 10.2 mmt, equal to 2019-20, while the crush demand forecast was left unchanged from the September estimate at 9.8 mmt, which represents a 329,000 mt decline in crush from 2019-20 to 2020-21.
During the month of September, 339,884 mt of canola oil was produced, which represents 43.3% of the volume crushed, down slightly from the 43.7% achieved in September 2019. The Canadian Grain Commission's preliminary data based on submitted harvest samples shows an average across all grades at 44.1% as of Oct. 22.
Today's report also included 139,438 mt of soybeans crushed in Canada in September, the first month of the row crop crop year. This volume is up 17% from the same month in 2019 and 4.3% higher than the three-year average. AAFC has forecast 1.9 mmt to be crushed in 2020-21, up 9.1% from 2019-20.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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