A Look at Estimated and Historical March 31 Canola Stocks
It will be a different season with both the April 24 Principal field crop areas report and the May 7 Stocks of principal field crop areas report not on the list of upcoming releases by Statistics Canada due to the adjusted schedule linked to COVID-19.
Based on past Statistics Canada data, canola disappearance in the January-through-March period of the 2018-19 crop year is calculated at 4.438 million metric tons, the lowest in four years. This compares to the five-year average of 4.7426 mmt, which is shown by the horizontal black line on the chart.
Canadian Grain Commission data from weeks 22 to 34 provides a rough idea of total disappearance over this period, which totals 4.613 mmt, consisting of 2.611 mt of exports and 2.002 mmt of domestic disappearance. This would result in March 31 stocks of 9.658 mmt, a forward projection based on Statistics Canada's December 31 estimate. This would be down 522,000 metric tons or 5% from March 2019.
In 2018-19, April-through-July disappearance is calculated at 6.349 mmt, a pace that would lead to a current year carryout of 3.3 mmt, which is exactly equal to the March AAFC forecast. At the same time, the most recent week 35 report from the CGC shows the current year demand running 1.028 mmt ahead of last year for this week, with both domestic disappearance and now exports running ahead of the year-ago pace.
The remaining wildcard is the spring harvest, with an estimated 1 million to 2 million acres to come off.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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