Canada Markets

2020-21 Wheat Ending Stocks Based on a Planted Acre-Yield Matrix

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows prospective change in Canada's wheat (excluding durum) stocks for 2020/21 as seeded acres vary by 500,000 acres across the x-axis and average yield varies by 1 bushel per acre on the y-axis. Assumptions include 97.2% of acres harvested, while demand remains constant at the 27.4 mmt forecast by AAFC. The green shaded square is close to the current AAFC forecast. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Over the past 10 years (2010-2019), Statistics Canada reports Canada's wheat acreage (excluding durum) to range from a low of 17.346 million acres in 2017 to a high of 21.287 million acres in 2013. This acreage increased by 7.8% in 2018 and a further 7.6% in 2019 to 20.128, the highest wheat acreage planted in six years. In 2019-20, a 1.4 million acre increase in spring wheat offset a decline in winter wheat acres.

Over this same period, average yield has been estimated to range from 42.8 bushels per acre (bpa) in 2010 to an average of 54.8 bpa in 2017, while the previous five-year average is 52.1 bpa (2015-2019).

The attached chart shows the prospective change in 2020-21 ending stocks of wheat as seeded acres and yield vary. The white shaded area shows combinations of yield and acres that would result in a year-over-year decline in stocks in 2020-21, with the current AAFC forecast for 2019-20 stocks at 5 million metric tons (mmt).

The yellow-shaded area represents combinations of seeded area and yield that would result in a year-over-year increase in ending stocks. The assumptions made are that the harvested acre relationship remains unchanged from the current AAFC forecast of 97.18%, while demand remains equal to the February AAFC forecast of 19.3 mmt of exports and 8.1 mmt of domestic use, or 27.4 mmt in total.

The green-shaded box marks the closest combination of yield and seeded acres to the current AAFC forecast. The February forecast includes a fractional increase in seeded acres to 20.139 million acres, which would be the highest acreage planted in seven years. Yield is estimated at 52.6 bpa, or .5 bpa higher than the previous five-year average.

The current AAFC forecast includes a 14% or 700,000 metric ton increase in ending stocks to 5.7 mmt, which would be the largest stocks in six years, representing a stocks/use ratio of 20.8% which would be the most bearish ratio calculated in four years.

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