Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported that Canada's overall exports increased by 0.8% and imports increased 0.5%, with Canada's trade deficit for all merchandise reported $100 million lower at $1.1 billion, the lowest reported in four months.

Noteworthy in Statistics Canada's report summary is a reported increase in Canada's trade surplus with the United States to $5.5 billion, the highest surplus reported since the global downturn in 2008.

As well, the largest decline in exports was reported for the farm, fishing products category that fell by 12.6% from last month, while pointing at a reduction in soybean exports to China. At a reported $2.3021 billion for the month, sales for this category are the lowest reported since February 2014, or almost six years.

The following is a summary of today's data for selected crops and products.

Lentil exports were reported at 131,308 metric tons in October, down sharply from the 272,684 mt shipped in September and the smallest October volume shipped in seven years. India and Turkey are reported as the top two destinations as has been the case for several months, with roughly 25% of the volume shipped to India. Cumulative exports over the first three months or one-quarter of the crop year total 518,533 mt, the largest cumulative volume for this period in three years, up 14.3% from 2018-19 while only 83.2% of the five-year average. Cumulative shipments total 24.7% of the current AAFC target of 2.1 million metric tons, indicating that exports remain on track to reach this forecast.

Dry pea exports were reported at 400,003 mt in October, down from the previous month but still the highest October exports reported in three years. Shipments to China backed off to 222,622 mt this month or 55.7% of total exports, down from the 477,539 mt shipped in the month prior. Cumulative exports for the first quarter total 1.068 mmt, up 22.6% from the same period last crop year while 92.3% of the five-year average. Cumulative shipments represent 31.4% of the current 3.4 mmt export target, ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this target.

October chickpea exports totaled 8,149 mt, the largest monthly volume shipped in four months. Year-to-date exports total 20,892 mt, representing 88% of the volume shipped in the same period of 2018-19 and 81.7% of the five-year average. The cumulative volume represents 14% of the current 150,000 mt export forecast set by AAFC, behind the steady pace needed to reach this target.

Canary seed exports were reported at 14,960 mt, the largest monthly volume shipped in five months while the largest October volume shipped in nine years. Cumulative exports total 40,195 mt, up 22.3% from the same period in 2018-19 and 25.6% higher than the five-year period. This pace of movement accounts for 44.7% of the current crop-year AAFC export forecast of 90,000 mt that is forecast to drive ending stocks to zero this crop year, making the Dec. 6 Statistics Canada production estimate of particular interest for those involved with this market.

Mustard exports in October were reported at 10,695 mt, the largest monthly volume moved in seven months but down from the same month in 2018. Year-to-date, 27,754 mt has been shipped, equal to the volume shipped in the same period of 2018-19 while also equal to the five-year average. Cumulative exports represent 23% of the current 120,000 mt AAFC export demand forecast, close to the steady pace needed to reach this target.

Flax exports were reported at 8,555 mt in October, up from the previous month while the lowest October volume shipped in data checked over the past eight years. Only 24% of this volume was shipped to China, although this volume was consistent with the volume shipped to China in October 2018. Cumulative exports total 30,051 mt, representing 36% of the volume shipped in the same period last crop year and 34% of the five-year average for this period. This volume represents only 6% of the current AAFC target of 500,000 mt, well behind the steady pace needed to reach this target.

Soybean exports in October were reported at 201,249 mt, well below the 974,356 mt shipped in the same month of 2018-19. The largest volume was shipped to Italy, with 89,312 mt shipped in this direction accounting for 44% of the total volume shipped. Over the first two months of the row-crop crop year, exports total 344,524 mt, just 30% of the volume shipped in the same period last crop year and 38.4% of the five-year average. Exports to China are reported at 19,432 mt in Sept/Oct, just 1.9% of the 1.015 mmt shipped in the same two months of 2018-19. Cumulative exports to all destinations represent 7.3% of the current AAFC forecast of 4.7 mmt, well behind the steady pace needed to reach this target.

Also of interest is Canada's soybean imports. Over the first two months of the crop year, imports have totaled 65,443 mt, 68% below the same period last crop year and 86% below the previous three-year average.

Corn exports in October totaled 21,508 mt, up from the previous month while the lowest October exports reported in five years. This volume was almost entirely shipped to the U.S. Crop year exports total 40,316 mt, just 32% of the volume shipped in the same period of 2018-19 while 54.3% of the five-year average. This volume accounts for just 2.7% of the current AAFC forecast of 1.5 mmt, well-behind the steady pace needed to reach this target.

Corn imports reported for the Sept-Oct period total 319,596 mt, reflecting 76.2% of the volume imported in the same period last crop year while close to equal to the five-year average for this period.

Canola oil exports for the month were reported at 301,340 mt, the highest monthly volume shipped in 11-months. Cumulative exports total 840,800 mt, 7.5% higher than the same month in 2018-19 and 12.2% higher than the three-year average.

Canola meal exports totaled 376,261 mt for the month, the lowest monthly movement in eight months. Cumulative exports at 1.178 mmt are 9% higher than the same period last crop year and 6% higher than the three-year average for this period.

Oat exports were reported at 254,046 mt, the largest monthly volume shipped this crop year and the largest October volume shipped in data checked over the past seven years. Year-to-date exports total 546,239 mt, down 6.8% from the same period last crop year while 7.8% higher than the five-year average. This volume accounts for 22.1% of the current AAFC forecast of 2.58 mmt, close to the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

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