Analysis on both sides of the Canada-United States border is pointing to the need for higher temperatures to promote crop development, while the Canadian Prairies also required widespread rain with almost all the Prairies having received below-normal precipitation. The driest area of south-central Saskatchewan and ranging into Alberta has received less than 40% of normal precipitation over Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's growing season analysis ranging from April 1 through June 18.
Over the next five days ending June 23, DTN's daytime highs shows prairie daytime highs ranging from zero to 3 degrees Celsius above normal in northern growing areas of Manitoba to as low as 4 to 6 degrees C below normal across areas of southern Saskatchewan and much of Alberta. This cool pattern extends well south into the U.S., with concerns of slowing crop development. DTN's daily weather commentary points to slow growing degree accumulations needed to aid corn crop development.
Manitoba's Crop Weather report for the week ending June 17 shows single-digit overnight lows reached each of the five regions of the province, while 13 of the numerous locations monitored for weather showed overnight lows dipping into negative territory. Coldest overnight temperatures were seen in the Interlakes Region, where eight of the 12 monitored locations showing overnight lows dipping into freezing temperatures, with the lowest reported at minus 4.9 C. The crop report points to the lowest temperature of minus 4 C in the Eastern Region.
As stated by Manitoba Agriculture, the basic concept of the corn heat unit calculation is similar to the degree day system; that is, the rate of growth is assumed to increase with increasing temperatures. However, day and night temperatures are treated separately. It is assumed that no growth occurs with night temperatures below 4.4 C or day temperatures below 10 C. In addition, maximum growth occurs at 30 C and decreases with higher temperatures, accounting for the detrimental effects of very high temperatures.
The attached chart compares the cumulative corn heat unit accumulation as a percentage of normal realized in the May 1 through through the third week of June period for 2019 along with the 2016-through-2018 data for the same period. This comparison is done using a frequency chart, which plots the occurrence or number of times that a certain data point is found within a set of data.
Of the locations monitored in the Central Region, as reported in the weekly Crop Weather report, the highest frequency is indicated by six locations reporting the cumulative CHU of 85% of the 30-year normal, with a range of 17 points, from 72% to 89% of normal. Data for the same week in 2018 points to the highest frequency of seven locations at 123% of normal CHU for the same week, with a range of 16 points from 110% to 126% of normal. The highest frequency for 2017 was found at six locations where cumulative CHU was calculated at 104% of normal and in 2016 was noted at three locations at 115% of normal.
DTN 360 Poll Results
A recent poll asks readers what they think of the current U.S.-China tariff situation. Results were spread widely across four of the five choices:
-- 40% of respondents were in favor of the U.S. tariffs, but stress that Canadian producers are innocent bystanders and our government must be prepared to support farm incomes;
-- 30% responded that the tariffs are hurting producers and governments must find other means of addressing trade inequities;
-- 20% were in favor of the U.S. approach to leveling the global playing field;
-- 10% responded that they were too busy to follow this issue.
This week's poll found at the lower-right side of your DTN Canada Home page asks if you will be making use of the enhanced Advanced Payments Program announced by the Canadian government.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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