In advance of Statistics Canada's Grain Stocks report to be released on Feb. 5, this analysis projects Dec. 31 stocks for selected grains based on the historic ratio of the December stocks as a percentage of crop year supplies. This projection utilizes Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) January estimate of 2018/19 total supply.
Based on these projections, Dec. 31 stocks of canola, wheat and durum would rise year over year, while stocks of all other crops would fall year over year. It may be plausible for canola stocks and durum stocks to rise, based on current production estimates and the pace of movement. At the same time, wheat exports as of week 21/22 were reported to be 18.9% higher than the five-year average while domestic disappearance could prove larger than expected and should result in a year-over-year decline in wheat stocks.
Of the crops looked at, the projections point to stocks moving in the same direction as current AAFC crop-year carryout estimates, except for canola, dry peas and wheat.
For example, over the past 10 years, Dec. 31 canola stocks have represented an average of 62.7% of estimated crop-year supplies. Given AAFC's current estimate of 2018/19 crop year supplies of 22.948 million metric tons, this would point to a projected Dec. 18 stocks of roughly 14.4 mmt, or 449,300 metric tons higher than December 2017/18. This is not consistent with current AAFC tables that are projecting a year-over-year decline in ending stocks of 206,000 mt, although could be explained by the current pace of exports, which is trailing the pace needed to reach the current export target of 11 mmt.
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