Canada Markets

The Model-Based Approach Yields Higher Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart shows the three-year average percent change (2015-2017) in Statistics Canada's production estimates from the July survey-based results to the model-based estimates reported in September for selected crops. On average, the size of the barley and oat crop has declined in the September report, while the size of the durum and canola crops have shown the largest increase on average. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The second of two back-to-back production estimates for Canada's crop production is due to be released on Wednesday, September 19, the model-based estimates, that take into account satellite data from Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment Program, and data from previous Statistics Canada reports, while incorporating agroclimatic data.

Over the past three years (2015 through 2017), the size of the oat and barley crops were estimated lower than reported in earlier survey-based results in the September model-based approach in two of the three years. This was seen in 2015 and 2016 estimates, while on average over the three-year period, the September report estimated the barley crop down 2.1% and the oat crop down 1.4% from the survey-based approach in the month of July.

As seen on the attached chart, the size of the other selected crops (other than oats and barley) were reported larger in the model-based approach than reported from the survey-based estimates. Estimates for these grains (spring wheat, durum, canola, corn and soybeans) were increased with the release of the model-based results in all three years, ranging from an average of 3.5% for spring wheat to an average of 8.3% for durum. The estimate for canola was also revised significantly higher, with the three-year average percent change noted at 7.9%.

While past results would indicate the possibility of a hike in the production potential for many crops when compared to the survey-based results released on August 31, focus will quickly shift to the challenging weather conditions that are delaying harvest in much of the west.

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