Canada Markets

A Look at Hypothetical 2018/19 Canadian Crop Supplies

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart points to the hypothetical year-over-year change in supplies of various Canadian grains given the most recent Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada supply and demand data while updated with the most recent Statistics Canada seeded acre estimates. Blue bars represent a year-over-year increase in supplies, as calculated for durum, canola, lentils and mustard, while the orange bars represent crops that could show a year-over year decline in supplies. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson).

The attached chart points to the hypothetical year-over-year percent change in total crop supplies for selected grains given the most recent June Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada supply and demand estimates, while updating seeded acres with the June 29 Statistics Canada seeded acre estimates.

While not shown on the attached chart, the elephant in the room is an estimated 136% year-over-year increase in chickpea supplies, given estimated supplies of 358,400 metric tons in 2018/19, tied to a 193% increase in estimated seeded acres to 469,000 acres, the largest area seeded since 2002.

Of the larger crops, year-over-year increases may be expected in supplies of both durum and lentils. Given a number of assumptions in the current supply and demand tables, the forecast 18.8% increase in durum acres seeded in 2018 suggests an 8.3% increase in total supplies to 7.413 million metric tons, the largest supplies since the 2016/17 crop year. Despite a forecast cut in lentil acres of 14.5% to 3.767 million acres, an expected 154% increase in 2017/18 ending stocks to 800,000 mt are adding to 2018/19 crop year supplies, estimated at 3.2 mmt, up 9% from 2017/18. This would also lead to the largest supplies seen since the 2016/17 crop year. In the case for both durum and lentils, increased supplies could prove problematic due to trade restrictions seen in durum to Italy and lentils to India.

The year-over-year percent change in canola supplies is set to grow by 1.9% to a record 23.2 mmt, with a current government estimates pointing to a slightly lower seeded acreage, a slightly lower yield, with a massive 2.7 mmt carry-in from the 2017/18 crop year boosting supplies overall.

The estimated year-over-year change in wheat supplies (excluding durum) suggests a 4.5% drop in 2018/19 to 28.8 mmt, with a higher seeded acre estimate offset by a smaller carry-in from 2017/18 and a lower estimated yield for the crop year ahead. This volume would be 8.6% below the five-year average.

The largest year-over-year decline in supplies is seen in flax, with a drop of 9.1% to 732,000 mt. In the case of flax, a lower carry-in along with 14.9% drop in estimated seeded acres is expected to trump the higher estimated yield for 2018. This would result in the lowest supplies of flaxseed seen since the 2012/13 crop year and 19.5% below the five-year average.

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