Ag Weather Forum

The USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress report resumed publication on Nov. 17 after six weeks off. Without those publications, one could only assume the conditions of the winter wheat crop. But because of large dry patches across much of winter wheat territory, it was assumed to be poor. NASS confirmed that with a good-to-excellent rating of just 45%, behind last year's 49%.

Part of that was boosted from fair rainfall and soil moisture over Kansas, which has a 56% good-to-excellent rating.

But there are some significant areas that are in poor condition as the crop edges toward dormancy. Montana yet again has poor ratings with 29% poor to very poor. Oklahoma is rated 29% and Texas stands out at 27% with 12% at very poor. Seven of the 18 reporting states have at least 15% poor-to-very-poor ratings including Colorado, Illinois, Montana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas and Washington.

Washington is the only state where the poor conditions may not be entirely because of recent weather, as both 30- and 60-day anomalies are near-to-slightly above normal. But the state is mired in deep drought, with coverage over agricultural areas generally in the D2-D3 range. Drought also covers large portions of Montana, and from Texas and Oklahoma up through Michigan.

Some help is on the way, though. A system is currently moving through the Midwest on Nov. 18 with scattered showers. Some primary areas in southern Illinois and Indiana are receiving some fair rainfall out of this system.

Another system is currently in the Southwest today and will move into the Southern Plains for Nov. 19. Precipitation should be widespread as the system brings rain from Kansas and Colorado southward through Texas through Nov. 21. It may not be heavy enough to reduce drought significantly, but 0.50 to 1 inch of rainfall is generally expected. Some thunderstorms could push amounts over an inch, especially as the system moves through southern Missouri and the Ohio Valley where amounts over an inch will be more likely.

Yet one more large storm system will move into the Southwest for Thursday and Friday. It will be slower to move into the Southern Plains and models have it starting up precipitation on Nov. 23. It may take until Nov. 25 to push northeastward, which may mean more heavy precipitation over the southern half of the Plains. Currently, Texas is forecast to be the big winner with widespread amounts over an inch expected for almost all of the state outside of the southwest corner. And thunderstorms being forecast are pushing totals up over 3-4 inches.

Models are having a tough time with the track of this system, so the timing and amounts are subject to change. But it appears that the storm should push up through the Midwest for Nov. 25-26 with areas of meaningful rainfall or possibly some snow as well.

Temperatures continue to be quite warm east of the Rockies going into next week, delaying dormancy. Therefore, this precipitation will help to increase soil moisture and root growth, especially for those in the Southern Plains and Texas in particular. Areas across the north will not see nearly the amount of precipitation as those across the south and east, and temperatures there have been teetering on the edge of pushing the crop toward dormancy anyway.

Mixed conditions appear likely for this crop as winter temperatures may settle in behind that midweek system. Models are still trying to decide the strength and expanse of that cold air, but the ingredients are there to bring in an arctic blast to begin December and shut down root development for a lot of territory.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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