Ag Weather Forum

When I wrote about the weather situation on Nov. 13 regarding a big storm, I noted there was a lot of uncertainty as to how the storm would develop and what the specific details to the system would be. Precipitation timing, location, type, and amounts were all very uncertain as models described these things drastically differently with each model run. You can find the original blog here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Now writing on Nov. 15, that still remains the case regarding the broad pattern for the week. But I think models are starting to grab onto the most likely scenario, which I can outline here.

A trough currently in the West will split into two this weekend and the stronger piece will move down through the southwestern United States. This piece will move out into the Southern Plains on Nov. 17 and quickly develop into a strong storm system. It will push northeast toward Minnesota and Wisconsin early next week but weaken considerably as it does. Rainfall is likely to be moderate to heavy along the track of the storm, with amounts ranging from 1-3 inches, and likely heaviest across northern Texas into eastern Nebraska.

Another trough will be moving into the West at the same time and it will push out into the Plains on Nov. 19-20. This will bring a burst of colder air into and through the country, and probably cause a storm system of its own as it catches up to the previous system's cold front across the eastern Midwest Nov. 20-21. It may ball up across the Great Lakes or southeastern Canada and stick around into the weekend.

However, this scenario still comes with a lot of uncertainty. The timing of the colder air moving through and just how long it lasts is uncertain. A ridge will be pushing that colder air eastward and models have been picking up the speed at which it is doing so. Warmer air would then replace the colder air by next weekend. But even so, models disagree significantly on how long that cold air will sit over the eastern U.S. with the European model shoving the colder air out by the weekend and the GFS model lingering it into the following week.

They also disagree with which locations will get heavier precipitation with the European one farther west with the initial system, which allows whatever remnants remain from Tropical Storm Sara to move through the Gulf Coast states. The GFS model does not. They also treat the second system quite differently, which is to be expected at this range.

And all of that comes with some borderline temperatures across the Northern Plains, the eastern Canadian Prairies, and across the Great Lakes, which all may indicate potential for snow. The European is more generous than the GFS, though only slightly.

Though some parts of the pattern have come into more of an agreement, there is still plenty of uncertainty as we head into the weekend.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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