Ag Policy Blog

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- President Donald Trump said Wednesday he would issue a $5,000 dividend to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate in the November midterm elections.

The "Trump Dividend," announced during the Republican Party's midterm convention in Dallas, serves as a play to increase support in a midterm election in which Republicans are seeking to retain control of both chambers.

The proposed payment comes as the federal government is also expected to provide $47.4 billion in direct payments to farmers and ranchers in 2026, as USDA forecasts lower farm income and higher government assistance.

USDA's latest Farm Sector Income and Finances forecast, released Sept. 3, projects net farm income will fall 5.5% from 2025 to $158.4 billion in 2026, in inflation-adjusted dollars. At the same time, direct government farm payments are forecast to be $19.5 billion higher than in 2025.

The almost 50 billion dollars figure does not include Federal Crop Insurance Corporation indemnity payments or USDA loans.

Farm bill commodity payments, primarily through Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage, are forecast to account for $15.6 billion of the payouts. Conservation payments are forecasted to account for $5.3 billion, while supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance is projected at $26.5 billion, up $5.3 billion from 2025.

The newly proposed $5,000 payment would represent a payout of more than $1.35 trillion dollars in potential federal spending. According to a Focaldata/Financial Times poll from Labor Day weekend, the president's approval rating sits at 32%.

"If the republicans win the House of Representatives and the U.S, Senate, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for 5,000," he said at the convention.

The proposed dividend is not the first time Trump has floated direct payments to Americans.

In February 2025, Trump expressed interest in a proposed $5,000 "DOGE dividend" funded through savings generated by the Department of Government Efficiency. He also proposed a $2,000 "tariff dividend" in 2025, saying the payments would be funded by tariff revenue.

The proposals were never enacted. However, ad hoc agriculture aid has been more consistent than the promised stimulus checks. A new $12 billion tranche of farm aid has now passed the House and awaits Senate approval before reaching farmers.

FARM EXPENDITURES IN 2026

Overall, farm cash receipts from crops and livestock are expected to decrease in 2026.

Crop receipts are forecast to increase $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, to $253 billion, but that increase is more than offset by lower livestock receipts. Total animal and animal product receipts are expected to decrease $16.4 billion, or 5.4%, to $287.3 billion, associated with falling costs of egg production.

Among individual crops, corn receipts are forecast to increase $6.8 billion (11.3%) in 2026, and soybean receipts to increase $4.3 billion (10.0%), due to a higher quantity sold.

-- Cotton receipts are forecast to increase $0.7 billion (12.5%).

-- Wheat receipts are forecast to decrease $0.3 billion (2.5%).

-- Rice receipts are forecast to decrease $0.6 billion (19.6%).

-- Sugarbeet receipts are forecast to decrease $1.2 billion (43.9%).

-- Sugarcane receipts are forecast to decrease $0.4 billion (17.3%).

For farm expenses, livestock/poultry purchases, feed and cash labor are expected to remain the three largest production expense categories on the farm.

Notably, fuel and oil expenses saw the largest increase of 28.8% to $4.8 billion spent, reflecting the increased farm diesel cost due to the war in Iran.

-- Livestock/poultry purchases are pegged at $71.9 billion, an increase of $7.4 billion (11.4%).

-- Feed spending is pegged at $69.5 billion, a decrease of $1.5 billion (2.1%).

-- Cash labor expenses are forecast at $44.3 billion, a decrease of $0.4 billion (0.8%).

-- Fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner expenses are expected to increase $5.3 billion (15.3%).

-- Pesticide expenses are expected to decrease $1.4 billion (6.6%).

AGRICULTURE AND THE MIDTERMS

The midyear convention included a reception with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn "GT" Thompson, R-Pa., who is seeking continued support as he works to retain his position leading the committee.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, also told reporters at the convention he would not continue in his role as chairman, potentially now eyeing leadership.

His committee has jurisdiction over immigration and the farm labor legislation, Securing Agriculture's Workforce Act of 2026.

New faces could bring new hope for H-2A reform. Rep. Laurel Lee, R-Fla., the next-ranking Republican on the committee, has expressed interest in the role and is among the ag labor bill's cosponsors.

More interested parties are expected to throw their hats in the ring for the job. If the Republican chair holds strict immigration views against "amnesty" or a provision some desire in farm labor reform that would allow a pathway to stay in the country to work for those who were illegally present, Thompson's bill could remain held up without Republican support, just as it was this summer.

USDA's Farm Sector Income Forecast: https://www.ers.usda.gov/…

Jake Zajkowski can be reached at jake.zajkowski@dtn.com

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