South America Calling
Dry Central Brazil Forecast
September is the onset of the South America spring and the prospect for the wet season beginning in central Brazil is getting close attention.
Soybean planting in central Brazil has an official start date in mid-September due to soybean rust control protocol. Rainfall is crucial as soils are very dry from the lack of any sort of precipitation over the last several months and will require rain to even begin to plant.
However, forecast models are not promising at this time. A La Nina pattern typically produces a late start to the central Brazil rainy season. If delays occur with the start of the wet season as expected, that could be threatening for the later safrinha (second season) corn and cotton crops that follow in the Southern Hemisphere fall and winter.
Dryness is also going on in much of Argentina. The far north has had periodic showers, but most other areas have been relatively dry. Cold weather has also been noted over the last month or so with many areas falling below to well below freezing. This has caused some of the crop to go dormant.
Temperatures this week should allow some of that crop to wake up, but will need showers for development. Rain this week will be scattered outside of that northern band, providing only localized relief and more focused on the coast than the interior, which has been drier this winter.
John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com
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