Sort & Cull

Autumn 2024 has been a season of flash drought across much of the United States. Some weather experts are predicting that October will be record-dry in much of the contiguous U.S.

In an article about the dry October, Associated Press reporter Seth Borenstein wrote: "More than 100 different long-term weather stations in 26 states, including Alaska, are having their driest October on record, through Sunday (Oct. 27), according to records by the Southern Regional Climate Center and Midwest Regional Climate Center. Cities that have had no measurable rain for October include New York, Houston, Dallas, Philadelphia, San Francisco and Sioux City, Iowa, along with normal dry spots such as Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix, National Weather Service records show."

NOAA summarizes flash drought this way: "Flash drought is the rapid onset or intensification of drought conditions, unlike conventional droughts which evolve more slowly. Flash droughts are driven by prolonged periods of reduced precipitation, abnormally high temperatures, winds, and/or incoming radiation that leads to abnormally high evapotranspiration (ET) rates."

Grain harvest benefit, increased fire risk and low water levels for river transportation have been widely discussed as ramifications of this fall dryness. But the livestock industry is also feeling the effects of this parched autumn. Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel noted in the OSU Cow-Calf Newsletter that the USDA Cattle on Feed Report issued Oct. 25 shows that ranchers have sold more calves than usual at this point in the season, largely because of poor pasture conditions.

"Reemerging drought is changing the timing of feeder cattle marketing again in Oklahoma. September feedlot placements were down 2% year over year but were likely somewhat higher than otherwise due to a fall run of calves that started earlier than usual," Peel wrote.

Another and longer-term feature of this season's flash drought as it relates to the cattle industry is that a resupply of the U.S. beef cow herd is not happening -- again, in part due to minimal grazing conditions. The percentage of heifers in U.S. feedlots is now pegged at 39.7%, well above the long-term average of just under 37%. Peel does not see this changing for a while. "I have not seen any real push by producers to begin herd rebuilding and with drought rebuilding in many regions, I don't think heifer retention is in the cards until sometime next year at the earliest," he told DTN in an email.

DTN Livestock Market Analyst ShayLe Stewart is also well aware that dry pastures add to profitability concern for ranchers and helps to keep a lid on beef cow herd rebuilding.

"The two biggest determining factors as to whether or not the U.S. beef cow herd will be in a growth or liquidation phase are green grass and profitability," Stewart said in an email. "Couple the current drought situation with the thin margins currently being seen throughout the cow-calf sector, and I personally don't foresee the cow herd build back happening like it did in 2014-2015."

Rain during the end of October into early November is welcome. However, any pasture recharge is coming too late to help restock the U.S. beef cow herd until -- possibly -- sometime in 2025. The 2024 fall flash drought has indeed left its mark on the cattle industry.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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