Fundamentally Speaking

In a blog piece last week, we looked at week 38 soybean conditions for the top states and the U.S. over a 25-year period and noted conditions now not that far off from last year which saw a record yield.

Monday, the week 39 conditions now indicate that 8 of the 18 states have ratings above year ago numbers, though 13 have above average condition figures.

The U.S. is quite neutral with ratings down 18 from last year's week 39 figure but current 704 rating is just right at the 25-year average of 704, ranking number 13, right in middle of study period.

In this piece we take the analysis a step further as we look at the relation between week 39 soybean crop ratings and the percent that the final yield deviates from the 25-year trend.

Plotted on the right-hand axis is the predicted percent deviation from trend based on the regression between 25 years' worth of week 39 ratings and percent deviation figures from the 25-year trend.

Reported on the left-hand axis is the USDA Sep yield estimate, the 25-year trend yield and the week 39 predicted yield based on the percent deviation figure.

The number in the yellow rectangles is the R2 of the regression between 2002-2026 week 39 crop ratings and the % final soybean yield for the 18 states and the U.S.

We use our usual ratings system where we weigh the percent of the crop excellent 10 points, that in good condition 8 points, fair 6 points, poor 4 and very poor 2 and sum the results.

The week 39 predicted yield is within 1.1 bushels per acre (bpa) of the USDA's September yield estimate for 10 of the states and the U.S. where the yield is predicted at 53.6, higher than the current USDA figure of 52.8.

The week 39 predicted yield is much higher in KY 3.8, LA 4.0, MI 2.6, MO 2.8 and TN 3.4 and lower than the USDA Sep figures in just IN -0.4 and WI -2.7.

Note that the southern states such as KY and TN have higher R2 of the regression than MI so one could have greater confidence that the USDA is more likely to boost KY and TN bean yields in the October report as opposed to Michigan.

Note again that this year's yields are down hard in KS, ND and SD as opposed to very good yields a year ago in those states.

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