Fundamentally Speaking

The USDA's August U.S. soybean yield estimate for 2026 at 52.7 bushels per acre (bpa) was just below the average trade guess and off a mere 0.3 bpa from the year ago record as this crop appears to have handled this summer's stressful weather far better than corn.

With weather this month more favorable than seen in July, especially in regards to precipitation, beyond some very wet spots there is hope that subsequent USDA soybean yield estimates may creep higher.

Like we did with corn in a blog last week, this chart shows this year's week 34 (or about the fourth week of August) rating and the 25-year average for the top soybean producing states and the U.S. on the right-hand axis.

Reported on the left-hand axis is the change in the 2026 week 34 rating vs. the rating one month ago and the week 34 2025 rating.

We use our usual ratings system where we weigh the percent of the crop excellent 10 points, that in good condition 8 points, fair 6 points, poor 4 and very poor 2 and sum the results.

Similar to corn, those Plains states that are significant producers of soybeans have taken quite a hit on yield prospects this year due to record heat and limited rainfall in many areas.

North Dakota is the worst rated state at 580, down 18% from its 25-year average at 706 as its 2026-week 34 rating is 84 points lower from the prior month and down 128 points from a year ago.

South Dakota rated at 638 is down 148 points from a year ago and down 28 points over the past month while KS at 670 is down 11% from its 713 average, down 60 points over past month, and 66 points lower from its year ago rating.

All these states and Nebraska, whose bean rating is down 72 points from a year ago, had very good soybean and corn yields in 2025 helping boost both crops to record national yields but that is not the case this year.

The best rated states are further south such as KY, MS and TN though Iowa is also doing well.

The U.S. crop rating at 714 is the lowest in three years but just slightly below its 25-year average of 720, though the national crop is down 12 points from last month and off 34 points from its 2025-week 34 rating.

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