Fundamentally Speaking

Stiff export competition from South American producers and reduced Chinese interest in U.S. product are two of the main reasons why U.S. soybean export sales last year at 1.695 billion bushels (bb) were the second lowest figure since the 2013/14 season.

These negative influences continue to persist though lower U.S. prices this season seen as one of the reasons why USDA looks for some slight improvement in our overseas bean sales this season as they have exports pegged at 1.850 bb.

Similar to what we did with corn, this chart shows U.S. soybean export sales and shipments in million bushels (mb) as of the second week in October on the left-hand axis and those figures as a percent of the October WASDE projection on the right-hand axis.

The figures in the yellow rectangles are the percent final exports exceeded the October WASDE export projection.

This year through the second week of October, the U.S. has sold 802.3 mb of soybeans for the 2024/25 marketing year which began Sep 1, which is 5.0% better than the year ago 763.9 million and that is 43.7% of the October WASDE projection, about equal to the year ago 43.5% and below the 10-year average of 47.7% and below the 20-year average of 50.6%.

Note that the 43.7% of the October WASDE projection is the lowest percent sold since the 2008/09 season save for the period between 2017-2020 highlighted by trade tariff wars with China.

The pace of U.S. soybean exports has picked up in recent weeks after a very slow start though last year and all years between 2017-2020 saw the final USDA export figure below their October WASDE projection.

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