Fundamentally Speaking

This graphic concludes our series looking at the amount of key crops that have been exported and shipped as of the third week of November from the start of the marketing year in aggregate terms, and also as a percent of the USDA's November WASDE export projection.

This time it is wheat and if the corn and soybean posts were hardly inspiring, the one for this grain is downright desultory.

The latest USDA U.S. wheat 2018/19 export projection was unchanged from the October 2018 WASDE figure of 1.025 billion bushels but this is still well above the year ago 901 million bushel final figure.

As of the third week of November, the U.S. had sold 533.3 million bushels of wheat since the marketing year started June 1.

The only years since the 1990/91 season where sales to that date were lower was in 2015/16 at 517.6 million bushels, 528.6 million bushels in the 2009/10 marketing year and 525.8 million bushels in 2006/07.

Meanwhile only 343.4 million bushels have been shipped as of the third week of November and that is the lowest figure we see going back at least to the 1990/91 marketing year.

These total exports are only 52.0% of the 2.015 billion bushel projection.

This is the lowest figure again going back to the 1990/91 season and well under the 65.7% ten-year average while the amount shipped as a percent of the November WASDA estimate is 33.5%, also the lowest figure again going back to the 1990/91 season and well under the 46.3% ten-year average.

There have been expectations that as the Russian exportable wheat supply diminishes this will result in enhanced U.S. wheat being sold overseas, but unless this happens in a hurry, we expect USDA to have some major downward revisions in its U.S. wheat export projection in subsequent WASDE reports.

(KA)