Canada Markets

When 2021-22 data is omitted, estimated crop year supplies of canola for 2022-23 is the lowest seen in the previous six years or since 2014-15.

Today's September Statistics Canada production estimates, based on August model data, saw little change overall to the forecast for Canadian production. The largest changes included a 400,000 mt lower revision for canola and a 488,036 mt upward revision for spring wheat.

The USDA revised global wheat production higher this month to a record volume of close to 784 mmt, while global use is forecast to exceed production for a third year.

The USDA's rapeseed/canola estimates are bearish, including a record global production estimate. This week's Statistics Canada production estimates will play a major role in this forecast, while market watchers will be looking for signals of Chinese demand.

During the first five weeks of the 2022-23 crop year, demand for hopper cars, terminal unloads and terminal stocks are well-below average for this period, which will pressure railways to perform to meet Canada's forecast rebound in exports.

Canola broke through support along with palm oil. Rapeseed broke through support although losses were pared for a close above support. Soybeans, soybean oil and crude oil closed higher.

July 31 grain stocks were reported at significantly tighter levels, which may eventually add to the uncertainty surrounding crop year supplies.

Australia's ABARES revised higher its forecasts for 2022-23 production estimates, pointing to a big crop on the way along with more competition in export markets.

Statistics Canada has forecast larger crops this week, while combines are rolling across much of the Prairies. Despite this, Saskatchewan bids for several pulse and special crops were reported higher this week as prices attempted to stabilize.

The Canadian dollar reached its weakest trade since November 2020 on Sept. 1, while a breach of retracement support could result in a continued slide.

The Durum/HRS spread is historically weak for this time of year. Focus lies on the prairie production potential, while we know that Europe will look to Canada for durum despite a slow start to their imports.

This week's Statistics Canada production estimate is the first of two back-to-back estimates, while we calculate potential crop year supplies for comparison against historical supplies based on government estimates to-date.

Statistics Canada's crop production estimates, based on July model data, point to sharply higher crop production. At the same time, August conditions will be taken into account when the next report is released on Sept. 14.

The July canola crush reached the highest volume seen in eight months.

Rapid progress on the west side of Saskatchewan has the overall current harvest progress equal to the five-year average at 16%. When the average is calculated using the 2016-20 data, the current pace of harvest is ahead of average. Warm, dry weather in the forecast will...

Statistics Canada reported the Canadian cattle herd falling to the lowest level seen since July 1, 1988.

In advance of official Statistics Canada production and stocks estimates, AAFC's August supply and demand estimates include upward revisions in estimated production for a few crops, with the upward revision for durum standing out from other crops.

Aug. 22 saw canola's largest one day move realized in August, ending $24.80/mt, while today's close is just $0.95/mt from the mid-point of the range traded over the past eight weeks.

In advance of two Statistics Canada model-based production estimates, due for release late August and again in mid-September, we look at historic yields based on averages that include and exclude 2021 data, along with the 20-year trend.

Early harvest activity has led to a week-over-week increase in primary elevator grain stocks, the first increase in six weeks. Elevators have significant space as we move into harvest.