Canada Markets

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 47 Grain Statistics Weekly, covering activity for the week ending June 25, shows Canada's all-wheat (wheat plus durum) exports through licensed facilities at 424,400 metric tons, down from the previous week while above the four-week average of 388,050 mt.

Cumulative all-wheat exports for 2022-23 are reported at 22.5858 million metric tons as of week 47, up 82% from one year ago and 19.8% higher than the three-year average for this week, shown by the blue line which is compared to the green shaded area on the attached chart.

The question remains whether Canadian exports are on track to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimate of 24.450 mmt, an estimate which also includes unlicensed exports and the export of flour, a volume that is up 62.3% from 2021-22. It is interesting to note that as of week 48, durum exports have already reached the 4.8 mmt export forecast released by AAFC.

Over the past three years, licensed exports from Canadian terminals as of week 47 averaged 89.2% of total licensed exports for the crop year. This remains close to the 89.8% average over the past five years. This ratio would suggest licensed exports could reach over 25 mmt through the end of July 31, or the end of the crop year. Note that the week 47 Weekly Performance Update from the AG Transport Coalition shows the demand for hopper cars for all crops by prairie shippers at 7,109 hopper cars, the highest demand seen in eight weeks signaling a late-crop year push to move grain.

In addition, over the past five years, licensed all-wheat exports have accounted for an average of 95% of total wheat exports, which includes unlicensed exports and the export of flour. This would push crop year exports even higher above the current 24.450 mmt forecast. Note that the USDA's June WASDE includes a forecast of Canadian wheat of 26 mmt.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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