The USDA's first estimate for 2023-24 global soybean production shows a 410.585 million metric ton (mmt) crop grown world-wide, up 11% or 40.164 mmt from the previous crop year, as indicated by the brown line on the attached chart. This is the largest year-over-year increase seen since 2009-10, or 14 years.
While the U.S. is expected to grow a larger crop, a huge rebound in production is forecast for Argentina as the weather shifts from a La Nina to El Nino pattern, while Brazil is expected to grow a second consecutive record crop. These forecasts are released well in advance of the planting of these crops and this bears watching over the balance of 2023.
Of the seven major oilseeds monitored by the USDA, global canola/rapeseed production is one of two crops where production is forecast to drop year-over-year. The USDA has forecast global rapeseed/canola production to fall by 234,000 mt to 87.061 mmt (blue line), below the global record achieved in the 2022-23 crop year.
The largest change is seen with a 3 mmt drop forecast from Australia due to lower-seeded acres and a more normalized yield potential. At the same time, increased potential is seen for both Canada and European Union. The USDA has pegged Canadian production at 20.3 mmt, well-above AAFC's most recent 18.5 mmt estimate, which bears watching.
It is interesting to note that canola's share of total global oilseed production based on USDA's May estimate is 13%, down from 13.9% last year. In nine of the past 20 years, or close to 50% of the time, canola's share was higher, ranging as high as 14.6% in 2008-09.
As well, the USDA has pegged the global canola/rapeseed stocks/use ratio at 8.1% from 2023-24, the highest in three years but still low when compared to the 31.7% calculated for global soybeans.
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