Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported a return to a trade surplus in the month of June of $3.2 billion, viewed as a surprise overall, the fourth trade surplus reported in 2021 and the largest surplus seen since September 2008. Canada's exports were reported at a record $53.8 billion for the month, up 8.7% month from the previous month, while imports fell 1% month-over-month to $50.5 billion. Statistics Canada commentary points to a surge in energy exports of 22.9% for the month to the highest level since March 2019.

The broad farm, fishing and intermediate food products was reported at $3.9575 billion in June, up 2% from the previous month but still the second-lowest monthly dollar value reported in 2021. When compared to June 2020, the dollar value is up 9.3%, due to the higher value of grains.

Here is a look at miscellaneous trade data as it applies to Canada's grain and grain products shipments.

Canada's lentil exports totaled 195,354 metric tons, down from the previous month, but still the second largest volume shipped in seven months and at the same time the smallest June volume shipped in three years. Of this volume, 41.3% or 80,635 mt was shipped to India, the largest volume shipped to this country in seven months. Year-to-date, 2.169 million metric tons of lentils has been exported, 84.7% of the volume shipped in this 11-month period of 2019-20 while 5.1% higher than the five-year average. Cumulative exports account for 80.3% of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's 2.7 mmt export target, behind the pace needed to reach this forecast as supplies dwindle.

Dry pea exports were reported at 142,566 mt in June, the smallest volume shipped in 10 months and the smallest volume shipped in June in nine years. Bangladesh was the largest buyer at 60,151 mt, while the 42,169 mt shipped to China was the smallest volume shipped since July 2017. Year-to-date exports total 3.498 mmt, down 3.1% from the same period in 2019-20 and 10.6% higher than the five-year average. To-date, 94.5% of the current 3.7 mmt AAFC forecast has been achieved, with exports on track to reach or exceed this forecast.

Chickpea exports totaled 13,991 mt in June, the smallest volume shipped in five months. The largest volume continues to be shipped to Pakistan, close to 42% of the total volume. Cumulative exports total 140,901 mt, up 48% from the same 11-month period in 2019-20 and 20.3% higher than the five-year average. This volume accounts for 91% of the current 155,000 mt AAFC forecast, just slightly behind the pace needed to reach this forecast that was increased by 20,000 mt in the July AAFC forecast.

Canada exported 9,173 mt of mustard in June, the smallest volume shipped in four months, while the 102,865 mt shipped in the first 11 months of this crop year is 0.1% higher than the same period last crop year and 4.9% behind the five-year average. So far, 91.8% of the current 112,000 mt export forecast has been reached, on track to reach the current forecast.

Canary seed exports totaled 12,664 mt in June, the smallest volume shipped in five months while the largest June shipments achieved in seven years. Cumulative exports of 148,051 mt are down 1.7% from last crop year while 3.6% higher than the three-year average. To-date, 92.5% of the current 160,000 mt AAFC forecast has been realized, with exports on track to reach this forecast.

Barley exports totaled 124,450 mt in June, the smallest volume shipped in 14 months as supplies dwindle. China continues to dominate this movement with 93% of the volume shipped in this direction. Exports of 3.471 mmt in the first 11 months of 2020-21 are up 92% from last year and 112% higher than the five-year average. In July, AAFC increased its export forecast by 200,000 mt to 4.5 mmt, which includes the export of malt.

At the same time, Canada imported 33,016 mt of barley in June, the largest volume in three months. Cumulative imports total 261,929 mt, easily on track to meet or exceed AAFC's 270,000 mt forecast that was left unchanged in July. While AAFC has lowered its forecast for 2021-22 imports to just 60,000 mt, this will face an upward revision in the months to come.

Corn exports totaled 203,137 mt, the smallest monthly volume shipped in three months, but the largest June shipments realized in three years. Cumulative exports are 148.6% higher than the same period last crop year and 14% higher than the five-year average. Of this volume, 89% was destined for Western Europe, or Spain, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. With two months left in the corn crop year, exports are close to exceeding the current AAFC forecast of 1.4 mmt.

Corn imports were reported at 136,036 mt, the smallest volume imported in four months as supplies tighten in the northern draw area. Imports over the 10 months of the 2020-21 row crop crop year total 1.343 mmt, while AAFC has forecast total imports of 1.5 mmt in 2020-21 and 1.3 mmt in 2021-22, a forecast that will likely be revised higher.

Soybean exports for June were reported at 121,107 mt, down from last month and the lowest volume shipped in the month of June for four years. Japan was the largest destination with 26,937 mt shipped, while the U.S. was the next largest at 18,010 mt. Cumulative exports of soybeans are shown at 4.218 mmt, up 32.7% from last year and 3.9% higher than the five-year average, with big shipping months needed in July and August to achieve AAFC's 4.6 mmt forecast.

Canola oil exports totaled 259,491 mt, the smallest volume shipped in four months. Cumulative exports total 3.105 mmt, slightly less than the same period in 2019-20 and 5% higher than the three-year average.

Canola meal exports were shown at 496,394 mt, the largest volume shipped in three months. Over the first 11 months of the crop year, shipments have totaled 4.911 mmt, up 9% from last year and 14.8% higher than the three-year average.

Canada imported 118 million litres of ethanol during June, the largest monthly volume imported in seven months. Over the first six months of 2021, imports have totaled 542 million litres, up 4.6% from the same period in 2020 but 3.2% below the three-year average.

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