While grain futures faced a risk-off session on Jan. 22 with markets closing sharply lower following a round of noncommercial long liquidation across the grains, durum bids on the prairies moved quietly higher while posting modest gains over the course of the past week.
Across the regions of the prairies, as reported by pdqinfo.ca, Jan. 25 bids were reported from $0.93 per metric ton (mt) to $2.07/mt higher. Across the three regions on the attached chart, the southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan bids of $312/mt and $305.09/mt, respectively, are close to crop-year highs, which were the highest reached since November 2016. The $308.78/mt reported for southeast Saskatchewan is the highest reported for the region since August 2017.
While global all-wheat stocks forecasts are pointing to record highs for 2020-21, the International Grains Council has forecast global stocks of durum to fall to 7.6 million metric tons, or the lowest seen since 2014-15. The International Grains Council views Canada as the only major exporter to see stocks increase this crop year.
This outlook is consistent with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's January supply and demand estimates, released on Jan. 25, which show exports for 2020-21 revised higher to a record 5.4 million metric tons (mmt), with ending stocks revised lower to 950,000 mt, up 213,000 mt or 29% from the previous crop year.
Uncertainty remains looming with Statistics Canada's Dec. 31 stocks estimates to be released on Feb. 5. As well, cumulative exports as of week 24 show 2.554 mmt exported, up 10.8% or 249,100 mt from the same period last year and 636,820 mt or 33.2% higher than the five-year average. Over the past two years, close to an additional 3 mmt of exports were realized in the week 25 through 52 period, which would result in exports even higher than the most recent 5.4 mmt estimate.
Commercial stocks of durum as of week 24 are reported at 928,800 mt, the highest reported for this week in five years and up 38% from last crop year.
DTN 360 POLL
This week's poll asks what you think of the change in U.S. administrations. You can weigh in with your thoughts on this poll, which is found at the lower-right of your DTN Homepage.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @CliffJamieson
(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.