Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported that Canadian processors crushed 864,559 metric tons of seed in the month of June, the highest volume reported in three months and the fourth-highest reported so far this crop year. This volume is 17.8% higher than the same month in 2018-19 and 17% higher than the three-year average.

Year-to-date, 9.322 million metric tons has been crushed, up 881,234 mt or 10.4% higher than the same period of 2018-19. This cumulative volume is already higher than the 9.295 mmt crushed over the 12 months of the 2018-19 crop year (August through July).

In their July supply and demand tables, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada increased its estimate for canola crush by 100,000 mt from 9.750 mmt to 9.850 mmt, one of the few changes seen in demand across all crops, although likely falls short of capturing the current pace of activity. The average crush over the first 11 months of this crop year is roughly 847,500 mt, a volume that when added to the year-to-date volume would see the crop year crush exceed 10 mmt. By my calculations, crush will be neck-and-neck with the export volume. Over the past two years, the July crush has exceeded the June crush by an average of 108,127 mt, so we could perhaps look for increased activity when July data is released.

Looking back through historic data, Canada's crush exceeded 7 mmt for the first time in 2014-15, exceeded 8 mmt for the first time in 2015-16 and exceeded 9 mmt for the first time in 2016-17. It will take another three years to 2019-20 to add the next million metric tons, or exceed 10 mmt, while such a volume would reflect roughly 93.5% of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association estimate of 10.7 mmt of capacity.

It is unclear where the reported $300 million will come from for the next million metric tons of crush; hopefully 2019-20 data will signal the urgency.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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