Canada Markets

Talk across North America remains focused on the potential for huge crops, with the caveat being the potential for frost which may reduce yield potential, given the late-planted crop and the cool weather that has recently slowed crop development.

An article released by Emerson Nafziger of the University of Illinois titled Will the Corn and Soybean Crops Get Finished looks at the challenges for the big Midwest crops. While crops continue to be rated high in weekly crop reports, corn is reported to be 10 days to two weeks behind normal, while soybeans are two to three weeks behind. The report states that the problem lies with the fact that "the number of days will stretch as the weather cools, so late crops get even later. Ten days behind in mid-August will become 15 or later days behind in mid-September, even if temperatures are normal."

The larger potential damage of early frost is with the soybean crop. The current low temperatures during the day are suggested to reduce the necessary photosynthesis to grow the crop, while cooler overnight weather reduces photosynthesis the following day. The result is lower-than-normal pod counts or the presence of late pods which fail to fill. Higher temperatures will be needed to help the crop realize its potential. The entire report can be seen at http://bulletin.ipm.illinois.edu.

The Canadian prairies have experienced the same cooler weather pattern which is also hampering normal crop development. In his most recent weather blog, DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Doug Webster suggests that temperatures have averaged 2 to 5 degrees below normal in most areas of the Prairies since late July.

Saskatchewan Agriculture suggests the canola crop is now two to three weeks away from maturity. While focusing on canola, they indicate it is impossible to predict the impact of frost on any given crop, as there are a number of factors which affect the outcome. Listed are the level of acclimatization, which is a "hardening-off" of the plant due to a number of days of cold weather prior to frost which can limit damage from frost, the amount of dew, which can insulate the plant and protect from frost damage and also the actual stage of the crop, which can also determine the degree of potential damage.

The attached chart shows the first frost dates for selected locations on the prairies, as found in the Farmers' Almanac and supplied by Environment Canada. The earliest dates appear at the end of August and early September. These dates reflect the average date for a light freeze defined as being between 0 and minus 2 degrees Celsius. The odds of a freeze either before or after these dates are 50%. The Farmers' Almanac reports that this Environment Canada data represents averages taken over the 1951 to 1980 periods and have not been updated since.

In the next week, we may see both the USDA and Agriculture Canada upgrade the potential for the Canadian Prairies crop on paper. Estimates for the canola crop are as high as 16 million metric tonnes, which compares to the 14.608 mmt record in 2011. One private forecaster has pegged Canada's all-wheat production at 30.805 mmt, the highest since the early 1990s. Webster suggests that the current high-pressure block could weaken next week, with a return to more normalized temperatures, which is what the Prairies need to advance this crop. Here's hoping that this is the case.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telveentdtn.com

(ES)

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