Ag Weather Forum

Slow crop development and wet weather remain key issues facing corn and soybeans in the western Midwest and Northern Plains.

Latest crop reports indicate corn maturity is still running about 14 days behind normal. Leaf droppage for soybeans is seven to 10 days behind normal.

Crop ratings for corn and soybeans were within 1 percentage point either side of where they were a week ago. They remain below to well below normal in most major producing states, but especially in the eastern Midwest.

The outlook for the Midwest calls for wet weather to continue in the Northern Plains and western Midwest into the end of the week. There is a chance that some of this precipitation could fall as snow in the Northern Plain with possibly a little snow mixing in with the rain before ending in the western Midwest on Friday and Saturday.

Any accumulating snow in the Northern Plains could damage crops. Windy conditions are also expected. Behind this precipitation event the coldest weather of the season to date will develop. A growing season-ending freeze is expected over most of the Northern Plains and parts of the western Midwest. This will damage immature crops. The combination of wet weather and slow crop development will lead to high moisture content of harvested crops. This is shaping up to be a very poor harvest season on a number of fronts.

Hot and dry weather south of the Ohio River through the Delta and Southeast United States is expected to significantly reduce yields for late-filling soybeans.

Winter wheat planting in the Southern plains is running at near normal levels. Soil moisture conditions are adequate in most areas to support crop pre-winter development.

We have not seen enough rain in west-central Brazil yet to initiate widespread soybean planting. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. Light-to-moderate amounts of precipitation are expected, with locally heavier amounts. This will be followed by dry conditions or just a few light showers for the remainder of the seven-day period. Delayed soybean planting could lead to reduced second-crop corn acreage. This situation bears watching.

Corn planting is ongoing in central Argentina; however, there are dryness concerns. This could be an area that bears watching if sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern pacific remain below normal. Drought in central Argentina correlates quite well with cool sea surface conditions. The next chance of any significant showers and thunderstorms will be during the weekend. This situation also bears watching.

Michael Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

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