Ag Policy Blog

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- While recognizing that U.S. agriculture is "under threat," Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told agricultural leaders that farming's future "could not be brighter." In a wide-ranging speech, Rollins laid out an agenda for supporting crop producers while teasing plans to rebuild the U.S. cattle herd.

In an immediate announcement, Rollins said the final $2 billion under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) "will be delivered within a week" to producers.

Rollins spoke Thursday at the Ag Outlook Forum in downtown Kansas City, Mo. In her remarks, Rollins placed a large share of blame for the current economic challenges on the Biden administration, noting the Biden administration didn't negotiate any trade deals, which led the agricultural deficit to balloon. At the same time, expenses have increased dramatically since the last Trump administration.

"We know that agriculture in our country is under threat," Rollins said.

She added later that trade disruptions have led to immediate consequences affecting a range of commodities. "But we also know that as the President is looking at the long-term fix, the complete realignment of the world economy around American agriculture and American goods, that there are bills that are due this month as we move into harvest. There are loans that have to be secured in the next eight to 12 weeks to plant for next year, that there are mouths to feed, and we have to make some difficult decisions right now. I do not have a silver bullet."

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday President Trump also suggested in an Oval Office event that an aid program for farmers could be coming soon.

"We're going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we're going to give it to our farmers who are -- for a little while -- going to be hurt," Trump said while taking questions. "So we're going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape, because we're taking in a lot of money."

In a press conference, Rollins touched on the impact of President Trump's tariffs and efforts to realign global trade. Rollins acknowledged this has led to market disruption for some key commodities. "We knew there would be a time of uncertainty, and that's the moment that we're in right now," she said.

Rollins told reporters an aid package would likely happen. However, such an announcement would likely not happen until after Congress and the Trump administration resolve whether there will be a government shutdown next week.

"We are not ready to announce a payment plan yet ... but we are very close to understanding and knowing and announcing what we will do," she said.

The secretary pointed out $8 billion has been paid to more than 500,000 producers under ECAP. Another $5 million has gone out to producers this year under the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) for natural-disaster losses in 2023 and 2024.

CHINA MARKET STILL AN OPEN QUESTION

Asked about what it will take to reach a trade deal with China, Rollins said she is in frequent talks with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Rollins noted there are "significant dynamics and nuances at play" in those talks, and she is committed to not second-guessing the president and his strategy.

"I've been next to him almost 10 years now, but what I will do is ensure that those that are negotiating and they do fully understand some of the consequences of especially to our soybean growers with zero purchase orders right now and a very robust historical crop," she said. "But it goes to the most you know, the bigger question, the longer-term vision, and that is, we have to get these markets open. We have to stop relying on one country, perhaps as our largest buyer, and that's a country that isn't aligned with our values."

Rollins acknowledged other commodities, such as sorghum, also rely heavily on China.

Rollins had highlighted to the Outlook crowd some of the other trade deals that the Trump administration had reached with Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the European Union to boost agricultural sales outside of China. Combined with more funding for cooperative groups to promote agricultural trade, Rollins said she expects farmers will see better trade prospects a year from now.

"I know that right now, today, we have yet to see a marked difference; but by next year, we believe so sincerely in my meetings with these cooperators and the buyers overseas, the future could not be brighter," she said.

PRESSURE ON INPUT PRICES

Rollins also said she is going to become more vocal with the Federal Reserve to press for more interest-rate reductions going forward.

"You may or may not have heard President Trump talk about this, forcing all to borrow money at elevated interest rates. I'm not sure anyone feels this pain more than our farmers and ranchers. The Fed needs to keep lowering rates so farmers and rural communities can finally see relief, and I'll be talking about that as we move toward the next meeting of the Fed," she said.

When it comes to fertilizer, fuel and other inputs, Rollins noted fertilizer prices have increased 37% over the last five years. The high input prices have led USDA and the Department of Justice to sign a memorandum of understanding earlier this year to protect farmers and ranchers from higher input prices and ensure competitive supply chains. Rollins said the Antitrust Division "will work hand-in-hand with USDA effective immediately to take a hard look and scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace," Rollins said.

"Farmers have enough challenges to deal with; sky-high input prices should not be one of them," Rollins said.

The secretary also pointed to efforts within the Trump administration to reduce costs for the H-2A migrant labor program. The Labor Department has streamlined the interview process for returning H-2A workers and USDA has eliminated the Farm Labor Survey, which was being used to set "artificially inflated" wages for H-2A workers, she said.

CATTLE INDUSTRY PLANS

Rollins also clarified plans announced last weekend to "rebuild the American cattle supply." The statement was made in a news release about New World screwworm. It stated the Trump administration planned to "incentivize" ranchers to expand the national cattle herd, which is now the smallest in 75 years.

The secretary said incentives would not include payments to cattle producers. There were a lot of immediate questions within the cattle industry over whether USDA would look to pay producers to hold back heifers to breed. Rollins made it clear that it does not mean a payment program.

"There's been a lot of speculation about this in the news in the last couple of days, we have no current plans to offer any payment to beef producers," Rollins said. "We see how the government getting involved can completely distort the markets. And so currently, there will be no plan -- no plan is even under consideration -- to insert ourselves through payments into the beef cattle industry."

Still, Rollins said Americans continue to eat more meat. The Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) plans in the Trump administration and new dietary guidelines are likely to champion protein products such as beef, pork and dairy, Rollins said.

"As we move forward, low inventory and high demand is not sustainable if we wish to be a country that can feed ourselves," Rollins said. "Like so many of the problems that you face, our cattle inventory, unfortunately, cannot be built, rebuilt overnight.

USDA plans to announce "a new cattle business strategy" in mid-October -- assuming a government shutdown doesn't delay those plans. Rollins said the plans would include "opening up more working lands" to livestock and expanding risk management tools for livestock producers. The plan will also include Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, which implies some type of incentive to graze more cattle on federal land.

Rollins concluded, "Despite the ongoing storms, I am confident that our best days in American agriculture are truly ahead."

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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