Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. with scattered showers and locally heavy rain to disrupt harvest for a few days, an improved short-term forecast in Brazil, and continued chilly temperatures in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, QUICK BURST OF COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system will move through the Midwest into Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some colder air will follow behind the system for a couple of days and produce some areas of frost, but will pop right back up going into early next week. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will occur, but is unlikely to be long outside of Missouri, which has had some heavy amounts. Dry conditions after Friday will allow for the region to dry out again and for producers to return to the field.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ZONE OF HEAVY RAIN

A system continues to move through the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday with some areas of heavy rain across the south. A shot of colder air will move in behind the system, and may produce some light frosts for a couple of days, but warm air will flood the region again next week while the region dries out. Though the rain is disrupting harvest and other fieldwork, and some flooding across Oklahoma and Texas are unfavorable, any rain will be ultimately beneficial for winter wheat and other fall forages as well as reducing drought.

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system in the Central Plains is spreading some showers into the Northern Plains on Thursday. Colder air will be moving in behind the system for a day or so, but it will become much drier and warmer for the weekend and through much of next week. The next chance for precipitation would come at the end of next week, opening up a fairly good window for producers to do some fieldwork.

DELTA CONTINUES TO MISS RAINFALL, DROUGHT GROWING

Drought has been growing in the Delta for some time now, but rainfall farther north has helped to keep the water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Even a front going through on Friday is forecast to be largely dry. Next week is forecast to be largely dry as well. The drought will continue to grow until significant rain falls in the region.

HEAVY RAIN MOVING FROM SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL BRAZIL, FAVORABLE FOR BOTH AREAS

Heavy rain continues to shift from southern Brazil into central Brazil through the weekend, allowing southern areas a chance to dry out a little bit. That would be favorable for both areas as it has been too wet in the south and too dry in the north. Models are suggesting that another system will move through southern Brazil later next week, which could bring back some heavy rain again, but would likely move into central Brazil as well, which would be more favorable.

CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Areas of light showers are expected to continue in Argentina through next week, which is helping to increase soil moisture somewhat. However, colder air has kept soil temperatures from rising very much this spring, which continues through next week. Southern areas may be slow to plant corn because of the cold, but increasing soil moisture should be overall favorable.

COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST IN EUROPE

The weather pattern is complicated with a system meandering about the western half of Europe Friday through next week. While some areas of favorable rain will occur, some areas will not. Overall though, western areas need more rain for winter crop planting and establishment, as do those in the southeast. The prospects for a lot of rainfall are fairly low, but not zero through next week.

WESTERN RUSSIA DRYNESS A CONCERN FOR WINTER WHEAT

A system stalling in Ukraine will continue to produce showers there through the weekend, but will be harder to find rain in western Russia. That is creating some mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment with somewhat favorable conditions west and poor conditions east.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system will continue to produce showers in Australia's northeastern wheat belt into next week, otherwise it should remain fairly dry in a lot of areas, even with a couple of systems moving through. Precipitation has been below normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CHINA THIS WEEKEND

A large system will move through central and northeastern China Friday through the weekend with much more widespread coverage of rain that may cause disruption to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, this should help out winter wheat and canola areas to get some more moisture for establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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