Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big change in the weather pattern starting next week, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and the potential end of good weather in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST, GETTING MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK

A system moving through Canada may bring some light showers through the Midwest this weekend. Temperatures are rising and may be record-high around Missouri ahead of that front. Temperatures will drop behind it. Another system is likely to bring showers to the region early next week. A bigger system is forecast to bring more widespread precipitation that may result in some snow and strong winds mid-to-late next week.

BIG WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE COMING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend and challenge records in a few spots in the Central and Southern Plains. A system will move in on Monday with scattered showers particularly across the north. It may be cool enough for snow. A bigger system is forecast for the middle of the week with more widespread impacts that could limit what remains of harvest, but increase soil moisture for winter wheat. More systems will be possible afterward for the rest of the month as the pattern gets a bit more active.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

A front will move through the Northern Plains on Friday and Saturday with limited showers and a drop in temperature. The storm frequency is forecast to increase next week with a couple moving through with better coverage of precipitation. With temperatures falling to more seasonable readings this weekend, it could mean some areas of snow next week.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW

Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. The Delta region needs a more active weather pattern to lift water levels again. The pattern may become more active starting next week. We may not see enough precipitation to significantly raise water levels this month, but may be the start of a pattern that is more favorable over the winter.

HEAVY RAIN FOR BRAZIL

A front will move into southern Brazil this weekend with areas of heavy rain. With this front lifting northward into central Brazil early next week and stalling, that could be the start of some drier-than-normal conditions for southern Brazil after a very wet start to the growing season. In contrast, the front stalling across the north would be more favorable for some areas that still remain dry across the central and north.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER AFTER WEEKEND FRONT

Soil moisture is still really good across much of Argentina. One more front will move through this weekend with widespread showers, but the pattern may start to get drier afterward, with models insistent on fronts with less rainfall potential for the rest of November and into December. If the heat can start to increase as well, we could see a big turnaround in weather conditions for corn and soybeans going forward. The winter wheat crop has enjoyed enough good weather to produce a good crop, though the frequent rain has increased disease pressure. Harvest continues to increase across the country.

OVERALL GOOD CONDITIONS FOR WINTER WHEAT ESTABLISHMENT IN MUCH OF EUROPE

Scattered showers continue across western Europe while a cold front moves down into the north with showers for this weekend. Cooler and wetter weather are in the forecast for next week as systems move down from the north. Weather conditions are still relatively favorable for winter wheat establishment throughout much of the continent as winter crops start to go dormant across the north.

BLACK SEA REGION STILL DRY DESPITE RECENT SHOWERS

Despite some showers this week, eastern areas of the Black Sea region are still dealing with rainfall deficits and drought for winter wheat establishment. More limited showers are forecast for next week, but the region needs more rain. Temperatures are still above normal, delaying dormancy for northern areas. With the limited soil moisture around, wheat is growing in poor soil moisture and dormancy would actually be favored. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year, but the crop will start with poor fall establishment conditions.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system moving through eastern Australia will bring scattered showers through the weekend, but many areas will be missed. Drier conditions are forecast there next week with showers increasing across the west. Mixed conditions are still found across the country. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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