Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A dry forecast for most of the U.S. but Hurricane Milton is heading for Florida, and the true start to the wet season rainfall in central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

STRONG FRONT FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Largely warm and dry weather continues in the Midwest this week. A front will move through this weekend, bringing showers to the Great Lakes and a burst of colder air that could linger for a few days, especially in the east. Conditions are mostly favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment in some areas that missed out on Helene's rainfall two weeks ago.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm and dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains through next week, being hot on occasion. That is favorable for corn and soybean harvest, but poor for winter wheat establishment. Rainfall two weeks ago has since dried up and the potential for precipitation is very low for the next couple of weeks, leading to poor wheat root establishment.

DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Despite a quick burst of cooler temperatures this weekend, mostly warm and dry weather is forecasted through next week. Conditions are favorable for maturing corn and soybeans and harvest.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL

Dry weather continues in the Delta for the next couple of weeks, favorable for harvest. But that is not the case for water levels on the Mississippi River, which had a very good boost due to Helene, but are forecast to drop low again next week, with a potential return to restrictive conditions for transportation.

SOUTHEAST DRY, MILTON HEADING FOR FLORIDA

A mostly dry forecast remains in place for the Southeast this week. Heavy rain will move through Florida due to Hurricane Milton Wednesday and Thursday, and may clip southern Georgia with some rain. Milton should be weakening as it moves into the state, but is still expected to cause devastation with storm surge along the coast, heavy rain across the Peninsula, and damaging winds near landfall.

RAINFALL INCREASING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK

The late start to significant rain in central Brazil has caused a slow start to soybean planting. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks. A front is moving up from Argentina into southern Brazil with good rainfall, but this front will make it north into central Brazil that should finally have producers planting in earnest with the true start to the wet season rainfall. That will be about two weeks late, however, and puts a crunch on the safrinha corn and cotton crops when they get planted in early 2025.

SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH ARGENTINA

Dryness continues to be an issue for producers throughout most of Argentina, especially across the south. A system that moved in on Sunday has spread showers over northern areas, including parts of the state of Cordoba, which has been in deep drought. Another front will move through southern areas late this week with streaks of showers into next week, but not the heavy soaking rain that the region needs to avoid further issues for developing winter wheat and corn planting. Soybean planting doesn't begin until November, but there could be issues with that as well if rain doesn't start picking up in the next couple of weeks.

MORE SYSTEMS FOR EUROPE

A system that brought rain into western Europe this weekend continues to send energy through the continent and scattered showers over the course of the week. Rainfall in the northwest has been a hindrance to corn harvest and wheat planting, which continues there this week. Rainfall elsewhere has moistened soils for winter wheat planting and establishment.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION STILL VERY DRY

A system brought meaningful rain to western and central Ukraine over the weekend, but the system responsible is only producing isolated light showers for eastern Ukraine and western Russia as it passes through Monday and Tuesday. Eastern areas have had a terrible go with hot and dry conditions for months. Systems from Europe have not been able to penetrate farther eastward with the rainfall just yet. There is some indication that rainfall will increase this weekend into next week, but that is starting to get awfully late for winter wheat establishment. Though temperatures have been quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout the rest of the month, with a cooler shot moving into Russia this weekend. The window for planting with potential for good growing conditions is quickly shutting down.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

Some isolated showers moved through eastern Australia over the weekend, but most areas saw only light rainfall or none at all. Dryness has been an issue in parts of the growing regions this spring. Some pockets of rain will move through this week, but the prospect for moderate soaking rains is very low. Chances may be a little better next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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