Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another big system with widespread rain and flooding followed by cold air in the U.S., recent rain in northern Europe, and heavy rain in eastern Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR MIDWEST

A stalled front brought through some areas of heavy rain and severe weather to the Midwest over the weekend. A system moving along the front will proceed northeast through the region on Monday into Tuesday, with more widespread rain and thunderstorms, heavy rain, severe weather, and potential for flooding. The rainfall is largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture, but causing delays to fieldwork. After a couple of drier days, another weaker system will move through at the end of the week with more scattered showers, and the pattern will support more periods of showers moving through this weekend and next week as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front brought areas of heavy rain and severe weather across Nebraska and northern Kansas over the weekend. With one more system to go through the region, another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Monday. The front to the system will push southward this week with areas of showers continuing along it in Texas, but also farther north at times as well. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall this week that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. However, cold air is moving in behind the front to the system, which will cause potential frosts in the northwest on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday, which may cause damage to emergent crops and winter wheat there.

SHOWERS AND COLDER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers developed in the Northern Plains over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavier rain to some dry areas in the region, particularly in the Dakotas. Scattered showers continue on Monday, including snow in Wyoming. Temperatures are falling well below normal, producing some frosts and freezes the next few mornings. Temperatures will start to moderate in the middle of the week while showers will move back in with a small system moving through. Though the frosts could be somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the frequent bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

COLD WITH SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold air that moved in late last week caused areas of frosts and freezes in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend. Some areas of showers also turned to snow where precipitation rates were heavier. That is slowing down planting progress. The pattern will be somewhat active throughout the week with occasional showers and a few thunderstorms moving through. That should help to increase soil moisture and will not be heavy enough to discourage planting. Instead, that will be the cold weather, which will continue to produce frosts and some freezes through midweek before temperatures moderate. With multiple systems through the end of May, there could be some more frosts down the line that could cause issues for early-planted crops.

FRONT STALLING, GETTING WETTER IN THE DELTA

It was largely dry in the Delta over the weekend, though a few showers occurred across the south. A front will move into the region this week and stall, bringing through multiple days of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain to Mato Grosso dust Sul and Parana. The front continues with waning showers into central Brazil on Monday, but with lower coverage and amounts. Very little of the safrinha corn areas will receive rainfall. Wheat planting continues to increase across the far south and is dependent on these showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana later this week with more showers across the far south next week.

BENEFICIAL CONDITIONS IN EUROPE

An upper-level system moved southeast out of Europe over the weekend, but brought widespread rainfall across the continent, including over the drier northeast. Other systems will bring showers to Europe this week, particularly over the north, overall favorable for wheat and corn. A few colder days over the weekend produced some very patchy frosts, but were not widespread enough to cause much concern.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the Black Sea region from Europe over the weekend and brought some areas of showers that continue throughout this week as well. Drier areas in the west will have more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall, a very favorable situation for much of the region.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA THIS PAST WEEKEND

A system moved into the eastern half of Australia over the weekend and brought some areas of heavy rainfall. That is increasing soil moisture, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

FLOODING RAIN MISSING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central areas of China, but largely missed the agricultural areas with areas of flooding. Showers will slowly leave the North China Plain early this week. Some areas continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for wheat, corn, and soybeans. Shower chances are still lower than favorable for much of central and northeastern China. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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