Weather

Commodities Market Impact Weather

Updated

Mixed Weather in South America

DTN Weather Week In Review
Weather Week In Review
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MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- An active storm track in the U.S., lower coverage and intensity of showers in central Brazil, and another stretch of hot and dry conditions after earlier rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system will move through the Midwest Friday night and Saturday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region. Cold air in the Northern Plains will move into the region behind the system, replacing the general warmth from this week. That pushes the storm track to the south but will still clip at least the southern end of the region, bringing precipitation with a couple storms next week. Another system may move through more of the region next weekend.

COLDER WITH MORE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving through the Central and Southern Plains Friday and Saturday is unlikely to bring much precipitation through, but temperatures will fall behind it. The weather pattern will be active next week, bringing through multiple chances for precipitation. If snow does not fall across enough of an area, the cold air will be a concern for winterkill on wheat.

COLD AIR STUCK IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Cold air will be hard to get rid of in the Northern Plains this month. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well, especially Friday into Saturday. Any and all precipitation will help the drought situation.

WATER LEVELS LIKELY STAYING HIGH ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

An active weather pattern in February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring. Multiple storm systems will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys with showers over the next couple of weeks and maintain or increase water levels. At some point, it may get a little too high in some spots.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK, FILLING IN NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers in central Brazil have been much spottier this week, offering up another window for fieldwork to get done. However, showers are still going across productive areas in the west and south and could lengthen delays for some. Showers are forecast to extend their coverage next week but should be able to be worked around. Fieldwork is well behind the normal pace and the window is very short for making the timely planting of safrinha corn, which is being watched closely.

MORE HEAT AND DRYNESS IN ARGENTINA, SOME SHOWERS NEXT WEEK

A front moved through southern Argentina on Wednesday, bringing through some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of hot and dry weather continues through the weekend. A front will move through early-mid next week, with better chances for rain over northern crop areas, which would be beneficial after the last couple of weeks of heat. However, that wouldn't help many other areas across the south. There is potential for more rain farther south later next week or weekend and beyond, however.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO WESTERN EUROPE

It has been drier for much of Europe this week, but areas in the west will see showers developing into next week. That would favor Spain, Italy and parts of northern Africa with needed precipitation for vegetative wheat. But France will stay too wet and areas in the east will remain too dry.

SPOTTY RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA

Isolated showers continue to move through southeastern Australia, helping immature cotton and sorghum where they hit. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia, but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas as of the current forecast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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This is not presented as a commodity trading recommendation. Weather is only one of many factors which can influence the market on any given day.

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