Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the Central U.S. but a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE THIS WEEK

A front will move across the Midwest this week with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of heavy rain may be a problem, though Iowa, Missouri, and northern Illinois are the favored targets with lower potential elsewhere in the region. If these spots indeed see heavy rain, it will continue to bring problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays.

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers will increase with a front and remnant hurricane moving through the Central and Southern Plains over the next several days. Areas of heavy rain are forecast across much of the region. That will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field, and slow any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING NORTHERN PLAINS, TURNING DRIER

A front and associated scattered showers will exit the Northern Plains on Tuesday after bringing through some heavy amounts to the Dakotas. That will be followed by largely dry weather afterward. The drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

HARVEST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, but conditions are improving for harvest in the Canadian Prairies with only spotty showers and overall warmer temperatures for the first half of October.

DRIER DELTA LEADING TO INCREASING DROUGHT, HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEK

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Much of the week will remain dry, but a front should move through Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops.

WET SEASON STARTING ON TIME IN BRAZIL WITH SLOW-MOVING FRONT

A front will slowly push northward from southern into central Brazil throughout the week. This slow movement should bring widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. If the rain is not heavy enough but remains widespread, producers would still be likely to continue planting at a regular pace. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting.

STILL TOO COOL IN ARGENTINA, BUT RAIN INCREASING

A system will leave Argentina on Tuesday after producing widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall. However, colder air will follow in behind the system this week, which has been more concerning. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation, but again would be followed by a burst of cooler air. The cooler conditions have kept soil temperatures from rising very well, limiting producers' planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air continues into October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

MUCH OF EUROPE IS STILL TOO DRY FOR WINTER PLANTING AND ESTABLISHMENT

A system is pushing through Europe this week, but with the best rainfall in France and maybe Germany. If the front stalls out over Spain, though, showers could continue into the weekend, which would be favorable. Otherwise, only limited precipitation elsewhere on the continent will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA REGION DRYING OUT AGAIN, CREATING MIXED CONDITIONS

A storm system spinning in the Black Sea could produce a few showers for the far south for the next couple of days, but most areas are forecast to be dry this week. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly dry the last several weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK

Scattered showers went through parts of Western Australia over the weekend while the east was dry. The system will bring some limited showers to eastern areas later this week, but it has been very dry over the last couple of months. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CHINA MAY DISRUPT HARVEST, FAVOR WINTER PLANTING

The weather pattern is looking more active across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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