Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong winter storm exiting the Eastern U.S. on Monday, drought reduction in the Central U.S., a return of hot and dry weather in the Plains, and a potential boost for dry areas in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

BLIZZARD EXITING MIDWEST MONDAY

A massive winter storm system moved into the Midwest over the weekend with extremely heavy snow across the north, and severe thunderstorms across the south. Winds have been strong with the system as well. The last punch to the storm moves through on Monday, where snow will continue around the Great Lakes, followed by lake-effect snow into Tuesday. A blast of arctic air is also moving through the region, but will not last long. Warmer air will spread through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, with a mix of rain and snow ushering in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction.

COLD, THEN HOT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Extremely strong winds developed across the Central and Southern Plains again over the weekend as a major winter storm system moved through. However, there was not a lot of precipitation, which favored areas to the north and east. The winds have brought in some colder air, but that will quickly be leaving early this week, being replaced by extreme warmth that is likely to set records later this week. The frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions this week as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought may continue to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, but being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A band of heavy snow fell across the Northern Plains this weekend, especially in Montana. Cold air quickly moved in over the weekend, but it will quickly move out as well, as heat builds over the region throughout the week, melting the snow. A burst of showers will move through with the warmer air on Tuesday, but drier conditions are likely for most of the next week, with potential for storms returning next week.

DROUGHT REDUCTION, BUT DEFICITS STILL LARGE IN THE DELTA

A strong cold front moved through the Delta on Sunday with strong winds and a line of severe weather. Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should be a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

REGULAR RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL, DRIER SOUTH

Scattered showers continued across central Brazil over the weekend and stay in the region throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front will come up from Argentina on Tuesday and may have a tendency to stall and produce scattered showers for the rest of the week, though coverage could wane by the weekend. More rain will be needed there.

DRIEST AREAS OF ARGENTINA SEEING RAINFALL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

Some showers fell over western areas of Argentina this weekend, but missed the very dry southeast. However, a pair of fronts are forecast to bring through widespread rain Monday and Tuesday, which may be heavy for those in the southeast and stabilize crop conditions. There is not a lot of time left for rainfall to produce positive impacts, however, with early-crop harvest continuing to expand and late-crop harvest approaching at the end of the month.

SPAIN STILL WET, EASTERN EUROPE DRIER

Scattered showers fell over the western half of Europe over the weekend, which included Germany and Italy, but eastern areas continue to be unfavorably dry. More showers will move through central Europe early this week, but will be followed by a lot of drier conditions. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast. Western areas are likely to get some more precipitation this weekend.

SPOTTY RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Drier conditions have been back in the Black Sea region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures through next week continues to awaken the wheat from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of southwestern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall this week.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system in the middle of Australia will produce scattered showers for the southeast this week. Not all areas are forecast to get some rainfall, but that isn't necessarily favorable as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and harvest begins in some areas. The moisture will be important for the coming winter wheat crop, however, which starts to be planted in April.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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