Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hot and dry southern U.S., a busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., and heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HOTTER WITH FREQUENT RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A system moved into the Midwest over the weekend and brought some showers across the north. It also dropped a front across the region that should be active for most of the week. Another front could do that this weekend into early next week. South of these fronts, temperatures will be quite warm, stressing the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but pushing other areas farther into maturity. Northern areas could see some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have much of a positive impact on yields.

SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

It got hot in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend with more widespread 100-degree temperatures. Meanwhile, a front dropped into Nebraska and produced some showers. That northern front may be a constant feature this week while it stays hot and dry to the south. This will continue to push a lot of the region into drought growth, especially south, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

NEAR-DAILY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY HELP WITH DROUGHT

A pair of systems moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and some severe weather reports. The pattern should be somewhat busy for this week, but that could mean most of the precipitation actually goes north into Canada or falls across the south and west. This busy weather pattern should extend into next week, which may mean better rain chances, but not necessarily heavier amounts that would help to reduce drought. Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could impact the continued spring wheat harvest.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, MORE RAIN COMING

A pair of systems moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and brought scattered showers. Some heavy rain and severe weather were noted, especially in Saskatchewan into far western Manitoba. The system continues eastward on Monday with more rain. The region will be the target of a couple more systems this week and weekend, both producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms. That could have an impact on both the harvest and grain quality.

DELTA GOING HOT AND DRY AGAIN THIS WEEK

It got hot in the Delta over the weekend and stayed mostly dry, further pushing soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stressing out any of the crop that is not yet mature. Some isolated showers may develop near the Gulf, but most of the region will be hot and dry throughout the week, reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING

Scattered showers continued to move across Europe over the weekend and a few more waves will move across northern areas this week. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but way too late to be beneficial for this year's crop. However, with winter crop planting starting up this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial. The pattern may stay active next week as well, though those prospects are a bit uncertain.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia has seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through the week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA DRIER AGAIN THIS WEEK

It was largely dry in Australia over the weekend. Some southern areas may be grazed by showers this week, but the drier pattern is likely to continue, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola become reproductive over the next couple of weeks.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA GETTING DRIER, AVOIDING TROPICAL STORMS SO FAR

Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas in China this summer, largely supporting good grain production. It should be a bit drier this week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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