Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stretch of much warmer temperatures to end the year for the U.S., and rain in much of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MIXED CONDITIONS, BUT MOSTLY WARMER AND DRIER FOR MIDWEST

A system brought a wave of showers to the Midwest on Thursday and is initiating some brief lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes for Friday. Another system will move through this weekend but with fewer showers. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air is causing significant melting of snow, letting that get into the soil column.

RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air will continue in the Central and Southern Plains through the end of the year, and will likely be record high next week. It will also be dry and that is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air should awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK, BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Light snow but strong winds produced blizzard conditions in parts of the Northern Plains on Thursday. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through a few showers and changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada after Saturday until probably the new year.

SNOWMELT IN THE MIDWEST NOT ENOUGH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A few showers moved through the Delta on Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by through the end of the year as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though warmer air up north has melted some of the snowpack in the Midwest and will accelerate next week. That will give a little boost to the rivers, but will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF BRAZIL

A front will move into southern Brazil on Sunday and may be stuck there for most of next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue, especially in Mato Grosso and Goias and farther north, but we may see fewer showers across the east in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

MORE RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

A front moves through Argentina this weekend with widespread rainfall. That front should stall across the far north for next week as well. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

IMPROVING SOIL MOISTURE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

A secondary storm track produced scattered showers across the Mediterranean earlier this week. More showers are forecast there again this weekend and next week. Some needed rainfall is forecast for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition in the Black Sea region. It continues to be warm and dry into next week, unfavorable for winter wheat. The next chance for significant precipitation comes around Christmas and will be followed by some colder air. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture is still mixed around Australia's wheat belt. Scattered showers will move through on Friday through the weekend and continue in the northeast for early next week. But the rest of the country is forecast to dry out a bit to end the calendar year. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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