Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt with some increased heat and risks of severe weather, areas of dryness in Europe and the Black Sea region, and an improved rainfall forecast in the Northern Plains, Canadian Prairies, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

RAIN AND HEAT IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

A front will slowly move through the Midwest again this week, with multiple disturbances bringing showers and thunderstorms, especially to the northwest. Temperatures south of the front are increasing and could cause stress to the areas that are a bit drier. The front could stall in the southeast this weekend with showers continuing there. Another system is likely to bring more showers through next week as the pattern largely stays active going into early August. We could see temperatures falling behind that system as well, bringing down stress levels.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Heavy rain developed over Kansas on Monday somewhat unexpectedly. Disturbances should move through the Central Plains while the Southern Plains get largely hot and dry. A ridge in the region will strengthen this weekend and may push these disturbances north and east next week. Though some isolated showers may form in the High Plains, this would generally cause hotter and drier conditions going into August that may start to have an impact on corn and soybeans. Models are not in complete agreement with this assessment, however.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING NEAR-DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the Northern Plains this week and probably next week as well. A ridge to the south may increase with time and may force the rainfall to push farther north and east and temperatures to increase. But for now, good growing conditions are expected going into early August.

DELTA ON LOOKOUT FOR SMALL TROPICAL STORM THIS WEEK

Isolated showers went through the Delta over the weekend and likely continue for much of the next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below normal, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages and concentrate on filling. Temperatures will continue to be stressfully hot if rain is too sporadic and light. Another small disturbance moving through the Gulf of America this week could become tropical before moving into the region later this week, which could increase the rainfall across the south.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DESPITE SOME SHOWERS

Hot and dry weather has increased drought conditions over much of the Pacific Northwest. Though temperatures are not extremely hot this week, we could see them increasing next week. Some small disturbances could bring some showers through the region this week, but that would not be of much help. The weather continues to be favorable for the winter wheat harvest, but not for heading spring wheat or other specialty crops, which will continually be stressed for the remainder of their life cycles.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING DAILY RAIN CHANCES

The pattern is very active and almost daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Canadian Prairies through next week. That may be a bit too late for some areas, but very helpful for others as spring wheat and canola continue into their reproductive stages. Drier areas in Manitoba really need the rain, but some of Alberta and Saskatchewan are in really good shape right now.

RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will move through southern Brazil with limited showers Wednesday and Thursday, but would get a boost from another moving through on Friday through the weekend. Systems may start to be more frequent, which would be helpful for building soil moisture for winter wheat, but could disrupt the remaining safrinha harvest.

MILDER AND SHOWERY FOR EUROPE

A system moved into western Europe this weekend with widespread rainfall that was beneficial into Monday. Additional showers will continue there the next few days and spread to the east. Multiple rounds will continue through the weekend and into next week as well. The rainfall would be beneficial for developing summer crops, but not winter wheat harvest. Temperatures should also trend milder going into the weekend.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

A system moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but focused rainfall largely across the north, with lesser amounts or none for drier areas in the southeast. That largely continues this week as well, favorable for the wheat harvest in the south, but not developing corn, which needs some rain. Temperatures continue to be above normal, which is also causing stress.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS AUSTRALIA

A system brought areas of moderate to heavy rainfall in western Australia over the weekend and then into the east early this week. Another system will move through the country this week and produce more areas of widespread rainfall. We could see another system producing widespread rainfall this weekend into early next week as well. All the rain should help reduce the drought for much of the country's winter wheat and canola areas. Crops are still vegetative, and the rain would be very helpful before they get into their reproductive stages.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN DRIER CENTRAL CHINA

Some areas of heavy rain have fallen on parts of the North China Plain over the weekend and Monday, helping with the drought situation. Additional rain should continue there over the next few days and could cause some localized flooding in some areas but would help to lessen the drought. However, forecasts turn the area much drier afterward again, focusing rainfall over southern China and also the northeast, an area that is in mostly good condition for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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