Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt with heavy rain and severe weather, but lingering dryness issues and nearby heat, patches of rain in the Canadian Prairies, and the end of yet another heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING FOR MIDWEST

Severe storms and heavy rain have been moving through the Midwest this week, including a potential derecho across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana on Tuesday. It has also resulted in flooding in spots from Iowa to Kentucky. The setup continues to favor clusters of thunderstorms moving through the region almost continuously through the weekend. Another front will move in toward the middle of next week and may return to the active pattern similar to this week. These chances for rain will not hit all locations, and spots across Missouri and southern Illinois are likely to remain hotter and drier through next week, which would cause stress. Northern areas may not see as much rain either, but will be milder. Severe weather will continue to be watched as wind or hail damage at this stage of development would be catastrophic. Some reports of which have been making the rounds on social media this week.

SOME RAIN IN CENTRAL PLAINS, EXTREME HEAT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE

Temperatures remain hot in much of the Central and Southern Plains, though a front has been waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas with some milder temperatures. The heat has aided in thunderstorm development, which continues through the weekend. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture where they hit, primarily across the north, while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This overall pattern may continue through next week as another front drops down into Nebraska on Tuesday or Wednesday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers have been moving through the Northern Plains this week and chances for more clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible through next week. Models are doing a poor job at capturing the actual rain potential, which has actually been higher but less widespread than models suggest this week. The rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could miss some key areas, like the Red River Valley, and will need to be watched.

RAIN SPREADING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers have been falling in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan for much of the week, areas that needed to see some rain. Showers will spread through more of the Canadian Prairies for Friday and into Saturday. Additional showers are likely to return next week. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable for immature crops. Some improvements to crop conditions are likely as we finish out the primary growing season this month. We will have to watch out for some frost potential over the next week, but chances are low.

HEAT WITH INCREASING DROUGHT IN THE DELTA

It has largely been dry in the Delta this week with extreme heat and humidity, a pattern that will largely continue with some outside chances for rain early and late next week. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

HEAT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE BREAKS THIS WEEKEND

Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, and were in place again this week. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. A front will bring in some showers to much of the continent over the weekend, breaking the heat. More showers will go through during the middle of next week and may start to turn into more of an active pattern for the rest of the month. However, it is already too late for much of the corn in France and the surrounding areas after the extreme heat of this summer. But some areas in lesser stress could see some improvements if the forecast pans out.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES BUT LIMITED RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A front that moved through the Black Sea region on Wednesday is bringing in some cooler air, but showers have been and continue to be very limited. Temperatures will rise next week and create more stress as rainfall will be largely absent until the middle of next week. The slow progression toward drier conditions to end the summer could have some impact on corn and sunflower production in the region.

DESPITE RECENT RAIN, AUSTRALIA STILL IN DRIER PATTERN

Despite some rain moving through last week and weekend, Australia continues to be in an overall dry trend thanks to the developing El Nino. A couple of disturbances could still bring through some showers next week, but the overall pattern continues to be drier. With winter wheat and canola becoming reproductive over the next few weeks, the dryness is concerning if it continues to persist into September.

CENTRAL CHINA EVADING MOST OF THE EXTREME RAINFALL

The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin have produced heavy rain in central China this week, but it has been falling on the outskirts of the primary corn and soybean growing areas on the North China Plain. Some damage may have occurred due to flooding, but the effects are likely minimal. Overall, conditions have been favorable for a lot of the corn and soybean growing areas this season, though we could see some heat returning next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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