Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big system moving into the Canadian Prairies, multiple impacts farther south, isolated showers in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MORE RAIN COMING TO MIDWEST

After a few warmer days this week, a front will move through the Midwest on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers, but also bringing in some colder air, at least to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cold air through the region. The colder forecast may slow down planting intentions, as the colder regime will stick around into early May. The region will need to be on the lookout for frosts and freezes for the next couple of weeks yet.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY GET SOME RELIEVING RAINS

Though it has been warmer early this week in the Central and Southern Plains, a front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to be common into early May, especially across the north. Some showers will move through with the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. A better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday. Though it will be brief, precipitation may be widespread and cover some of the dry areas in the west. Another system may get southern areas in the middle of next week. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost.

STRONGER STORM AND FALLING TEMPERATURES COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will move through the Northern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air. Accumulating snow will be possible with that system, especially in Montana. The system will stall in the Canadian Prairies and may bring occasional showers into the weekend. More showers will be possible from a system passing by to the south on Sunday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature.

MORE COLD AND SNOW FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system will move into the Canadian Prairies on Wednesday and linger into the weekend, creating widespread precipitation, but as a mix of rain turning to heavy snow, especially in Saskatchewan. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point, unless models make drastic changes to the forecast.

DROUGHT STILL GROWING IN THE DELTA, BUT RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK

Drought is becoming a major concern in the Delta for this season. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers to the north. Two more fronts will move through next week with scattered showers as well. But despite the chances for rain, it is coming at too slow of a pace to keep up with the increasing drought.

WET SEASON RAINFALL ENDING EARLY IN BRAZIL

Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso, but much of central Brazil will remain dry as the wet season rainfall has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. A front is stalling across the south and will produce showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times through next week. Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry, though. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

MORE RAIN IN ARGENTINA

A system may bring some showers to Argentina this weekend. Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. Rain may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

NORTHEASTERN, SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE GETTING SOME SHOWERS

A system hit some of the drier areas in northeastern Europe with some needed precipitation lately, but not many. Some showers will move through eastern areas this weekend as well. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain, especially later this week and weekend. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week, but are not much of a concern for winter wheat, which has fairly good soil moisture across most of the continent.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue across the Black Sea region into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it is also colder this week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace. It may discourage corn planting, however.

MOST OF AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Showers moved through some southwestern areas of Australia on Monday, but drier conditions in the east continue the poor outlook for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. Though a few showers will go through the southwest again later this week, eastern areas are forecast to stay drier, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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