Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- While showers continue to move through Argentina and central Brazil, a strong storm is moving through the Upper Midwest today while the Southern Plains are missing out on much-needed rainfall. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE MIDWEST TODAY

Snowpack is extremely low across most of the region, and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring, though the weather pattern is opening up and promising some bigger storm potential. After Wednesday's storm, another will follow for Thursday and Friday. Some showers may linger into the weekend as well. When added together, there is potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms south with snow across the north. Additional storm systems are forecast for next week as well.

CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS

Strong winds and dry soils have made for some wildfires in a couple of states since Tuesday. Though some good rain fell across parts of the region over the weekend, soil moisture is not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west, and drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. The winds are calming down, but the storm systems are not. Another storm will move through on Thursday with a band of snow across Nebraska and another storm could bring some showers through on Friday, with potential for snow across Kansas. A couple of storm systems are likely next week, too, but will favor northern areas of the Plains instead of the Central and South. Instead, strong winds could dry soils quicker, especially with temperatures rising again next week.

ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ACTIVE STORM PATTERN

Northern areas saw heavy snow on Wednesday along with some blizzard conditions. Additional snow may come to southern areas on Thursday. Colder temperatures will stick around for a little while as well, but are likely to rise ahead of the next big storm next week. Overall, topsoil moisture is increasing as the storm track has been favoring the region with drought mainly lingering in southern areas.

MORE MOISTURE NEEDED IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AHEAD OF PLANTING

There has been some boost to the water levels along the Mississippi River since this past weekend, but more will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. Multiple larger storms are forecast for the rest of February, which may provide some benefit to the rivers, but favors the Plains and Midwest with the significant precipitation and leaves the region in drought.

SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN TO CENTRAL BRAZIL

Showers have been very isolated over central Brazil over the last several days, which may have allowed fieldwork to progress more rapidly as the country continues to harvest soybeans and plant corn. Waves of showers moving up from Argentina will continue to expand across the country this week and especially next week. The country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ARGENTINA

A few waves of showers will move through the country through the weekend, but will be spotty in nature and favor areas that are not in the deepest need of rainfall until maybe Monday across Buenos Aires. Rain has improved soil moisture in some areas, but both corn and soybeans have been trying to improve conditions since the end of January with little progress. Crop conditions for both have not increased since the declines started in early January. For some of the crop, the rains are too late, but there is still time for the later-planted portions of both crops.

SOIL MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF SPRING PLANTING IN EUROPE

An active weather pattern for Europe continues, but has given a break to Spain, which had been inundated for the last couple of months. Poland has not had the precipitation it needs for spring, but there is still time. The active pattern continues through at least the end of February and is both favorable for winter crops, and the coming spring planting season. Some areas may be too wet to work properly though, which may delay fieldwork if it extends too far into March.

SHOWERS FAVOR SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND

Northern Australia has seen a marked increase in precipitation in 2026, but primary agricultural areas, particularly in the east, have not. Some beneficial rainfall did fall in Queensland over the weekend, but reducing the dryness has been difficult to achieve over the last several weeks. Models are starting to agree that a front will move into the southeast this weekend and stall, which may provide more beneficial rainfall for cotton and sorghum that is largely in the fill stage.

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN

Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months, especially across the North China Plain. Shower chances are relatively frequent for the rest of the month, but with low amounts. The region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next month or two.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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