Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern across the U.S., including some rain for drought-stricken areas in parts of the Plains, isolated showers in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

DISTURBANCES CONTINUE SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through the Midwest this week, favoring the Great Lakes, and leaving areas near the south, especially the Ohio Valley, rather dry. The rainfall has come with severe weather and heavy rain, limiting fieldwork in areas where it has been raining, while other areas have seen soil temperatures rising enough to start planting. The active weather continues for the rest of the week, with a strong cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front, producing frosts over large areas of the region Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, and a slow-moving system is likely to produce more widespread precipitation later next week. The region is not out of the cold just yet though, as we may see colder temperatures working back in later next week or weekend, and there are signals for cold in early May as well. While planting is off to a good start, the coming colder temperatures and heavy rain may cause some delays in planting.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Central and Southern Plains continue to be in the zone of active weather on Wednesday, though it continues to favor eastern areas with precipitation over the west, which has become extremely dry for developing winter wheat. A strong cold front will move through on Friday into early Saturday. This front may bring a mix of rain and snow to western areas, but amounts do not look heavy, instead favoring the southeast again. Cold air will bring frosts over the weekend that may be damaging to more advanced wheat. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, with a slow-moving system likely to bring more widespread precipitation to the region. That may include the dry areas in the west, but to what degree is uncertain.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS, VARIABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A system and strong cold front will move through the Northern Plains on Thursday and Friday, bringing through a mix of rain and snow and a punch of some much colder air. Temperatures may not make it above freezing on Saturday in some areas. Temperatures will rebound early next week, though, as more showers build across the region for mid-late week. The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods later next week and possibly into May as well. Drought in the west and south will surely take the precipitation coming with the variable conditions, however.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES STILL TOO COLD FOR FIELDWORK

Temperatures have been cold in the Canadian Prairies this spring and snow still exists across the north. A strong cold front will drop south through the region through Thursday, bringing a mix of rain and accumulating snow, followed by extremely cold temperatures into the weekend. Some areas may not make it above freezing. Though temperatures rise early next week, we are likely to see them fall again later next week. The overall cold conditions are causing problems for soil temperatures, and the snow isn't helping either. If this continues into May, as currently forecast, there will be tighter planting windows this season.

SOME SHOWERS IN THE DELTA, BUT STILL VERY DRY

Drought continues to be a major issue in the Delta while planting moves along quickly. A front moving through on Thursday may bring through a few showers and thunderstorms, but it'll be one moving through on Saturday that should carry some widespread rainfall. Despite that, it will not be enough to reduce the drought in any significant way. Prospects are a little more promising next week as a system slowly moves through the country, perhaps bringing through more widespread precipitation. If the forecast changes, though, conditions could worsen.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A system will move into southern and western Brazil with scattered showers for Wednesday and Thursday, but will quickly return to being isolated showers. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall into next week. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast suggests, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating into early May.

HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN ARGENTINA

A system moved back into northern Argentina with heavy rain on Tuesday, which continues on Wednesday. Another front and system will slowly move through the country Sunday through early next week, with more widespread precipitation. The usefulness of the rainfall continues to dwindle as even late-planted crops are maturing. Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans, but the rain may cause some delays and flooding issues.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE STILL DRY

A system continues with showers in the eastern Mediterranean on Wednesday. A couple of smaller systems are moving through northern Europe as well, but with limited showers. Most of the continent has favorable soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting. However, areas in the northeast have more limited soil moisture and are in need of some good rains. Multiple systems are in line to at least provide some chances over the next several weeks.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region through next week, though they will be patchy. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter. Some cooler air will move in next week, but not be extremely cold. Wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace.

AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Dry conditions continue to produce poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment in Australia as that usually increases in April. Very little precipitation is in the forecast through next week, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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