Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The temporary end of cold air in the U.S. and continued dryness concerns in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MIDWEST STAYING COLD THROUGH WEEKEND, WARMER NEXT WEEK

One last cold front will bring through a burst of cold air to the Midwest through the weekend. There is not much wheat that is exposed with low snow cover, but there are some areas that may sustain some damage. A clipper moving through Sunday and Monday will usher in some warmer air for next week, but will take longer over areas with heavier snow cover across the south and east. Those in the far east like Ohio may not see temperatures rise above normal before more cold air moves in next weekend.

COLD AIR CONTINUES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEEKEND, WARMER NEXT WEEK

Cold air will be reinforced into the Central and Southern Plains by one more cold front moving through on Friday, which continues the cold this weekend before temperatures eventually rise above normal next week. That will help to finally melt off the remaining snow. Some wheat areas with heavy snow cover should have some protection from the cold while other areas will see some damage.

PUSH OF WARMER AIR LEADING TO PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some light-to-moderate snow continues in South Dakota on Friday. Another clipper moving through the Northern Plains this weekend will flush out the cold air and bring in both a burst of mixed precipitation and warmer air that will stick around for most of next week.

WATER LEVELS RISING ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER

Recent heavy precipitation is helping to raise water levels on the Mississippi and local rivers. There are issues with infrastructure from last weekend's big winter storm, and extremely cold air in the region could lead to issues with ice jams on local rivers.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central Brazil continues to see favorable rainfall for filling soybeans, though harvest is increasing and the rain is becoming less helpful in that regard. South-central areas have been drier lately, which may be causing some stress, though showers are moving back in and will continue into next week. Soil moisture remains low for the coming safrinha corn crop though, which will be planted immediately after soybeans are harvested over the next few weeks.

DRY THEME CONTINUES FOR ARGENTINA, FRONT MAY BE PROMISING NEXT WEEK

It has been very dry across the southern half of Argentina for quite some time, leading to continued declines in soil moisture and crop conditions for corn and soybeans. While a front should come through this weekend with additional showers, models are calling for limited or no precipitation for the primary corn and soybean areas. Models are suggestive of some beneficial rainfall later next week as another front passes through, but that is highly uncertain.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EUROPE

The weather pattern has been quite active over the vast majority of Europe for some time, continuing to be favorable for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat across the south. The same active weather pattern continues through next week as well. There is very little concern for winter crops across the continent.

COLD AIR RETURNING TO BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEKEND

Though warmer air has moved into the Black Sea region this week, another burst of arctic air will descend upon the region this weekend and continue for several days into next week. The harshest cold is forecast over Ukraine, which has better snow cover, but may have a bit too much melting from the warmth this week. That could renew the risk of winterkill on winter wheat. Some damage may have occurred over last week's arctic cold as well. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation over the winter before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring. Some shots of precipitation have been more frequent than they were over the fall, but still not enough for next season's crop.

DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN AUSTRALIA, NORTHEAST AREAS MAY SEE RAIN

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, as spotty showers are not enough to battle the higher summer heat. Even the remnants of tropical storms cannot seem to hit the primary agricultural areas with any significant moisture. Dry weather continues for most areas through next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum. However, northeastern areas may get a couple of days of beneficial rainfall for northern New South Wales into southern Queensland. Models have been backing off on the precipitation, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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