Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued areas of heavy rain and severe weather across the Central U.S. causing potential planting delays for corn and soybeans, but soil moisture improvements for wheat, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Blacks Sea, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

MORE RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system brought heavy rain and severe weather to the Midwest over the last two days. Another system will move up through the region from the Southern Plains over the next couple of days, producing more widespread rainfall, especially for the wetter south. Some additional showers will be possible next week as an upper-level trough slowly moves eastward through the region. Western areas are likely to be wetter, and eastern areas may get a chance to dry out and get some fieldwork in.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is stalled across the Southern Plains, where showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday and some additional showers may be possible on Friday with another front sweeping it out. More rainfall is forecast with another system moving into the Central and Southern Plains on Sunday with a system that will be slowly moving eastward next week. The rainfall is helping to ease drought conditions and build soil moisture, but may be causing some flooding and delays to planting. Producers likely welcome the rain, even if it causes some delays.

DROUGHT-REDUCING RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and heavy rain fell across a good portion of the Northern Plains earlier this week. Additional light and spotty showers are forecast for the next couple of days. Another system will move into the region this weekend, likely bringing more scattered showers into next week. The current and forecast rainfall should improve drought, but also cause wet conditions and some delays to planting.

MORE RAIN FOR THE DELTA

The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front moved into the Delta on Tuesday and will linger with periods of showers through Saturday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region.

WET SEASON OVER IN BRAZIL

A front recently moved through Brazil, continuing showers over northern areas into the weekend. This should be considered the end of the wet season, which is generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

LIMITED RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

Overall drier conditions have been favorable for corn and soybean harvest in Argentina. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

DRIER IN EUROPE, BUT MORE RAIN COMING

Much of this week has been dry in Europe, but western areas will see a system slowly move in and a front will sag south over eastern areas on Friday, combining for widespread precipitation for the weekend. Eastern areas may see rainfall continuing next week as well, which could help to moisten up some drier areas in the northeast.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Temperatures continue to waffle a bit this week in the Black Sea region, but drier conditions are not going to be very favorable. A front will move through this weekend into early next week that may bring more widespread showers, but models have been backing off on that potential recently, especially for southwestern Russia. Soil moisture continues to be very limited across much of the region and more moisture is needed soon for developing wheat and emerging corn.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Many areas around Australia are still dry and in need of some rain, though portions of the west and New South Wales have gotten some rain recently. Showers continue to be limited across the country this week, favoring western and eastern coastal areas through the weekend. More inland areas will need the rain, but early May appears to be pretty dry.

FEW RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Primary wheat and canola areas in central China have been drier this spring, unfavorable as those crops quickly develop in warmer temperatures. Very little precipitation is forecast either there or farther north in the corn and soybean areas, which is not good for crops in the ground, but better for spring planting. The longer range forecast continues to call for limited showers through the first half of May.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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