Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and good planting weather in Brazil but not Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SEVERAL FRONTS BRINGING SHOWERS TO MIDWEST THIS WEEK, NEXT WEEK

Some areas of showers and thunderstorms moved across the eastern and western Midwest over the weekend. Though temperatures are rising early this week, a strong cold front will push through the region mid-to-late week with areas of scattered showers and milder air. Another rise in temperatures will occur ahead of the next front moving through this weekend. And one more system is forecast to move through early next week. These fronts and systems should increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields. Soggier conditions as corn and soybeans mature could be a little troublesome for early harvest activity.

MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT HEAVY RAIN NEEDED TO COMBAT DROUGHT

Some limited areas of rain moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry or saw light rain. Meanwhile, temperatures remained extremely hot, quickly advancing corn and soybeans toward maturity. Some rain fell in winter wheat areas of Nebraska and Kansas, but intense heat is quickly sapping any significant moisture from the soil. It will be difficult to plant early with the continued hot conditions for the time being, even with a couple of fronts dropping south through the region this week and next. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

SOME HEAVY RAIN MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PAST WEEKEND

Scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, which may have helped to ease drought in some areas. While some showers may move through this week, many areas will stay dry. However, another system will move through this weekend into Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest activities.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IMPACTING HARVEST AND QUALITY

A system brought widespread heavy rain to the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and continues to bring rain through on Tuesday. Though some areas could use rain for drought reduction, the rain is coming at a poor time for grain quality and harvest, which will be suffering. Another couple of systems are forecast for late this week and over the weekend that could cause additional problems.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN DELTA, BUT CONTINUING TO BE HOT

It was hot, though some isolated showers developed across southern areas of the Delta this weekend. Spotty showers will be possible the next few days before a front slips down into the region on Friday that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend. The current conditions support increasing drought, but later showers could reverse the trends if they are heavy and widespread enough. With much of the crop reaching toward maturity, the rainfall will not be helpful, but could be enough to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport.

SPRING PLANTING IN BRAZIL STARTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

A front produced scattered showers in southern and also the central portions of Brazil over the weekend. With the front largely stalled out there this week, additional showers will develop and another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers even longer. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early planting. Some areas in the central are awaiting the lifting of soybean planting restrictions, but are getting some decent rainfall ahead of planting that should prime soils for when the restrictions are lifted.

ARGENTINA NEEDS SOME RAIN AND WARMTH TO START CORN PLANTING

Another front moved through Argentina this weekend, but was largely dry and brought through some cold air that caused areas of frosts and freezes, especially south. While this would not have caused much harm to vegetative winter wheat, it is keeping growth slow and is keeping soil temperatures too cold to start corn planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING

Scattered showers moved through Europe over the weekend. A couple of systems moving through this week should offer some more precipitation, but forecast amounts have dropped since last week. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. Northern areas are seeing better rainfall to increase soil moisture for winter wheat planting, but could be causing some issues for corn harvest.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A front moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, bringing scattered showers. Some moderate rain fell in southwestern Russia while it was light elsewhere. Systems moving through Europe may produce some showers, but very limited rainfall is forecast, keeping most areas dry. Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat establishment, but will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING IN RATHER DRY PATTERN

A system moved into Western and South Australia over the weekend, but away from the primary growing areas. That will continue to be mostly true through this week, though a couple of fronts could bring some showers to Western Australia late this week and weekend. Rain is needed as more wheat and canola get into reproductive stages, but very little is in the forecast.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA ARE DRIER AS CORN AND SOYBEANS MATURE

It was largely dry in central and northeast China over the weekend and most of the crop is going to remain dry for the next week. With the corn and soybean crop heading closer to maturity, the lack of rain should be more helpful. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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