Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big system and cold air in the Canadian Prairies, systems moving more rain for drier areas of the U.S., the end of the wet season in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MIDWEST, BIGGER STORM NEXT WEEK

A front will continue to move through the Midwest on Friday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but also bringing in some cooler air to the west. Another system will move through on Monday into Tuesday, with more widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cooler air through the region. Even colder air will push through later next week, which may cause some areas of frosts and freezes into early May. The colder forecast may also slow down planting progress.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY GET SOME RELIEVING RAINS

A front moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday with strong thunderstorms over eastern areas. Cold air across the north will be common into early May. Though additional thunderstorms will develop across the east on Saturday, a better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday. Precipitation should be widespread across the north, delivering needed rainfall to Nebraska. Another system is forecast to get southern areas with widespread rain in the middle-to-end of next week. Colder air will flow through more of the region behind this system. Though the rainfall should be somewhat beneficial, deficits and drought are increasing and have become a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost going into early May.

COLD TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system is spinning across the Canadian Prairies and will bring through some scattered showers for the Northern Plains into Saturday. It is also building in some cold air. More showers will occur from a system passing by to the south on Sunday and Monday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature and more consistent frosts and freezes.

COLD AND SNOW IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system moved into the Canadian Prairies on Wednesday and will linger through the weekend, creating widespread precipitation. Rain has turned to heavy snow in Saskatchewan and Alberta on Friday, leading to some deep accumulation. The system is also bringing through a steady pool of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows should be expected, which may or may not affect production. Soil moisture across most of the region is rather favorable once planting does begin.

DROUGHT STILL GROWING IN THE DELTA, BUT RAIN CHANCES IMPROVING

Drought is a major concern in the Delta for this season, but there are multiple chances for precipitation moving forward. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers. Two more fronts will move through next week with scattered showers as well. But despite the chances for rain, the drought is deep and deficits are extremely large. A long, sustained wet pattern will be needed to significantly ease the drought. There is time and the long-range forecast is somewhat favorable, but there is a long way to go.

WET SEASON RAINFALL ENDING EARLY IN BRAZIL

Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso, but much of central Brazil will remain dry as the wet season rainfall has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. A front is stalling across the south and will produce periods of showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times through next week. Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry, though. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

NORTHEASTERN, SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE GETTING SOME SHOWERS

Some showers will move through eastern Europe this weekend. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take what it can. Additional showers have been moving across Spain and continue into next week as well. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting, but are not much of a concern for winter wheat, which has fairly good soil moisture across most of the continent. But if rain does not fill back in during early May, there could be some issues developing. Current forecasts are favorable for rain, but uncertain.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region through next week, being overall favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to increase this spring. However, it is also colder through next week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a somewhat normal pace. It may discourage corn planting some, however.

MOST OF AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but is only producing moderate conditions at best. The country just needs more rain. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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