Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the Central U.S., but a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE THIS WEEK

Scattered showers developed west of the Mississippi River over the weekend, slowing down harvest progress, but areas of the Midwest to the east were warm and dried out, which is promoting progress. A front will move across the region this week with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of heavy rain may be a problem, though Iowa and Missouri are the favored targets with lower potential elsewhere in the region. If Iowa and Missouri indeed see heavy rain, it will continue to bring problems to both states in terms of grain quality and harvest delays.

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers continued in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and will increase with a front and remnant hurricane moving through this week. Areas of heavy rain are forecast across much of the region. That will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field, and slow any progress for harvest or winter planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY, THEN DRIER

A front will go through the Northern Plains with scattered showers into Tuesday, but will be followed by dry weather afterward. The drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

HARVEST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system went through Alberta with some showers this weekend, and a few more showers went through parts of Manitoba, but much of the Canadian Prairies was dry, allowing for producers to catch up on fieldwork. Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, though. Despite that, and a few systems moving through over the next two weeks, chances for precipitation are lower and temperatures are expected to be warmer overall, allowing producers to catch up.

DRIER DELTA LEADING TO INCREASING DROUGHT, HEAVIER RAIN LATE THIS WEEK

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Much of the week will remain dry, but a front should move through late week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops.

WET SEASON STARTING ON TIME IN BRAZIL WITH SLOW-MOVING FRONT THIS WEEK

It was quiet in Brazil over the weekend except across the south as another system started to move in on Sunday. It will take a couple of days, but the front to the system should push northward into central Brazil. If it moves slowly through the region as forecast, it would likely set off enough rainfall to declare the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. If the rain is not heavy enough but remains widespread, producers would still be likely to continue planting at a regular pace. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting.

STILL TOO COOL IN ARGENTINA, BUT RAIN INCREASING

A system moved into Argentina over the weekend, but with limited precipitation. It will take until Tuesday for the system to leave though, and the forecast is calling for widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall. If that verifies, it would be welcomed, as it has been dry lately. However, cold air will follow in behind the system this week, which has been more concerning. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation, but again would be followed by a burst of cooler air. The cooler conditions have kept soil temperatures from rising too much, limiting producers' planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air continues into October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

MUCH OF EUROPE IS STILL TOO DRY FOR WINTER PLANTING AND ESTABLISHMENT

It was largely dry in Europe over the weekend, though some showers started to move into the west on Sunday. A system should push through this week, but with the best rainfall in France and maybe Germany. If the front stalls out over Spain, though, showers could continue into the weekend, which would be favorable. Otherwise, only limited precipitation elsewhere on the continent will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA REGION DRYING OUT AGAIN, CREATING MIXED CONDITIONS

It was largely dry in the Black Sea region over the weekend. A storm system spinning in the Black Sea could produce a few showers for the far south early this week, but most areas are forecast to be dry. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly dry the last several weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK

Scattered showers went through parts of Western Australia over the weekend while the east was dry. The system in the west will bring some limited showers to eastern areas later this week, but it has been very dry over the last couple of months. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CHINA MAY DISRUPT HARVEST, FAVOR WINTER PLANTING

Some showers went through some areas of central and northeast China over the weekend. The weather pattern is looking more active, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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