Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain across the Corn Belt with cooler temperatures spreading through the U.S., recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and few other global weather issues are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

NOT AS INTENSE, BUT MORE WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Rounds of heavy rain and severe weather take a break in the Midwest on Friday, but move through with another system this weekend, resulting in a boost in soil moisture, but also some flooding and storm damage. Though a little less frequent than this week, showers will continue in a few waves next week. Some areas will inevitably be missed, but those are few, and some are also getting hit too often, which is resulting in some more flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Temperatures are falling behind a front and another front moving through this weekend will bring temperatures below normal for much of next week, easing stress. The rainfall may be impacting quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A cold front will settle across the Southern Plains on Friday with another front moving through the Central Plains on Saturday to meet the previous one and continue showers across the south on Sunday and Monday. Spottier showers will follow next week and will be much more hit-and-miss than we saw this week. Recent rainfall has done a good job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the effects of drought for a lot of the region, though dryness is still a concern in a lot of areas. Heat earlier this week is starting to get wiped out by the coming cold fronts, with cooler air in place this weekend and early next week reducing stress. The areas of frequent and heavy rainfall may be reducing quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the Northern Plains through next week, but with lower frequency and intensity than we have seen this week. Cooler temperatures will stick around well into next week and may stay mild into late June. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought, with limited stress from the milder temperatures, leading to good growing conditions overall.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An upper-level trough in the Canadian Prairies will continue periods of rainfall through next week, but there will be some breaks between waves of showers. Though there may be some excess and flooding issues, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. It appears producers have done a good job of continuing to plant during the rainfall but have had a hard time finishing up and the last remaining fields are behind schedule, exposing them to some early frost risks in late summer and early fall.

FRONTS TO STALL IN THE DELTA

A front is moving into the Delta on Friday and will stall through the weekend. Another will meet it on Sunday and continue showers across the south into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, maintaining fairly high soil moisture and continuing to reduce the long-term deficits that still remain after a very busy last month. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

SHOWERS IN BRAZIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND

A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through the weekend. Another front is forecast to move through late next week. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EUROPE, FRANCE DRIER

Systems have been moving through Europe this week with widespread precipitation that continues in the east through the weekend. Some areas across France are not getting much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. A system or two moving across the far north may spread a few showers into the continent next week but will be spotty. Otherwise, good conditions are found across much of the continent.

SHOWERY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST

Scattered showers will continue across the Black Sea region through next week, especially across the west which will see higher coverage and intensity. Rainfall has been rather frequent this spring and now into the summer. That is keeping soil moisture high but may be reducing quality for some winter wheat as areas in the south head toward maturity. The wet weather has also made it tough to complete corn planting.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

Many areas in Australia have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. Another system is bringing through scattered showers to the east this weekend. Another system will move through next week with widespread showers as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Overall favorable conditions continue in central and northeast China for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas have seen a little rain, but drier conditions continue for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast into next week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

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