Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stretch of much warmer temperatures to end the year for the U.S., and rain in much of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

TEMPERATURES RISING IN THE MIDWEST, BIGGER LATE WEEK STORM

Temperatures continue to rise across the Midwest for the next couple of days. A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating more lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with less cold air and showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air is in place across the Central and Southern Plains, and will continue through Christmas with little exception, and could be record high next week. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers on Wednesday into Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Warmer air is moving into the Northern Plains. A system will move along the border on Wednesday into Thursday and bring through a few showers and a quick burst of colder air for Thursday. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada.

SNOWMELT IN THE MIDWEST BARELY BUDGING WATER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A few showers will move through the Delta region on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels on the Mississippi River continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS BRAZIL THIS WEEK

A front will continue with enhanced showers across southern Brazil on Tuesday. Another front is forecast to move into the south early next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue this week as well. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

IMPROVED FORECAST FOR RAINFALL IN ARGENTINA

A front brought scattered showers through Argentina on Sunday and Monday, which brought some needed rain to some areas that were starting to dry out a bit. Some isolated showers may move through southern areas this week, but most areas will be dry until another front moves through this weekend. Forecasts have increased the rainfall for that front. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE MEDITERRANEAN

A secondary storm track will mean scattered showers across the Mediterranean for the next couple of days and again this weekend. Some needed rainfall is forecast for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Some needed precipitation moved through the Black Sea region late last week and weekend, but dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition. It will be another warm and dry week this week, unfavorable for winter wheat.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved across eastern Australia this weekend, but soil moisture is still mixed around the country's wheat belt. It will be a fairly dry next several days. A better chance for scattered showers starts on Friday and then continues into the weekend, but mostly for eastern areas. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting continues and early-planted areas will need to see this rain come to fruition.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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