Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple systems moving across the U.S. and more spotty rain in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

SYSTEM WINDING DOWN ACROSS MIDWEST, MORE NEXT WEEK

Snowpack is extremely low across most of the Midwest, and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring. However, the pattern has become more active this week with two storms moving through. The second will linger light snow across the east this weekend. Two more storms are likely for next week with widespread precipitation.

LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Strong winds and dry soils have made for some wildfires in some areas of the Central and Southern Plains since Tuesday. Though some good rain fell across parts of the region over the past weekend, and some heavy snow fell in Nebraska on Thursday, soil moisture is not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west. Drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. Another storm will bring some lighter showers through on Friday, with potential for snow across Kansas. A couple of storm systems are likely next week, too, but will favor northern areas of the Plains instead of the Central and South. Instead, strong winds could dry soils quicker, especially with temperatures rising again next week.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Snow moved across the southern end of the Northern Plains on Thursday. It will be quieter and colder through the weekend, but temperatures will rise early next week. A couple of storm systems will move through next week with scattered showers. Heavy precipitation is not in the forecast. Drought increased on Thursday's drought monitor, but the more active storm track should help to raise snowpack and soil moisture to some degree.

LESS PRECIPITATION IN DELTA, BUT HIGHER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

There has been some boost to the water levels along the Mississippi River since this past weekend, but more will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. Multiple larger storms this week have not produced much precipitation to the Delta, but have to the Midwest and Ohio Valley, which will provide some benefit to the rivers. A couple of storm systems will move through next week as well.

WAVES OF SHOWERS FILLING BACK IN ACROSS BRAZIL

Showers have been very isolated over central Brazil over the last week, which may have allowed fieldwork to progress more rapidly as the country continues to harvest soybeans and plant corn. Waves of showers moving up from Argentina will continue to expand across the country this weekend and next week. The country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

CROP CONDITIONS FOR SOYBEANS CONTINUE TO FALL IN ARGENTINA

Waves of showers will continue to move through Argentina through Monday, but have been and continue to be spotty in nature and favor areas that are not in the deepest need of rainfall. Rain has stabilized corn conditions, but soybeans continue to fall and are now rated similar to last year's disappointing campaign. It is getting too late for much of the early-planted crop and is continuing to exert pressure on the later-planted crop as well. With drier conditions forecast for next week, that could be a larger problem, since February is now coming in with lower-than-normal rainfall like January for many areas.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORED IN EUROPE INTO EARLY MARCH

An active weather pattern for Europe continues, but has given a break to Spain, which had been inundated for the last couple of months. Poland has not had the precipitation it needs for spring, but there is still time and the pattern has been more favorable over this last week. The active pattern continues through at least the end of February and is both favorable for winter crops, and the coming spring planting season. Some areas may be too wet to work properly though, which may delay fieldwork if it extends too far into March.

SHOWERS BUILDING ACROSS BLACK SEA REGION

The weather pattern is becoming much more active and chances for frequent precipitation will continue through the end of February. Temperatures remain mixed, but without threat from arctic bursts that would be damaging to wheat.

SOME INCREASED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Northern Australia has seen a marked increase in precipitation in 2026, but primary agricultural areas, particularly in the east, have not. Models do have an active front that will move into the southeast this weekend and stall, which may provide more beneficial rainfall for cotton and sorghum that is largely in the fill stage.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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