Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system producing widespread precipitation for areas of the Corn Belt, but questions about next week's rainfall, and another heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

RAIN, MILDER TEMPERATURES SPREADING THROUGH MIDWEST

A system will move through the Midwest through the weekend and is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms to combat recent dryness and increasing drought coverage. It is also bringing in some milder air to the whole region. In addition, another cold front will move into the region next week in a couple of bursts, which will be a factor in producing more areas of showers and bring some mild temperatures. With some follow-up rain, some areas will see improving conditions, but areas to the south of the front are likely to return to hotter and drier conditions that could make the situation worse. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and more rain and milder temperatures are needed to stabilize during filling corn and soybeans heading into August.

LIMITED RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, MORE HEAT NEXT WEEK

A stalled front in the Central Plains along with a system moving through the Northern Plains have combined to produce widespread showers across Nebraska and Colorado the last few days. That system is leaving to the east with scattered showers across Kansas down into Texas for Friday. Some milder air is moving in behind the system for the weekend, but temperatures will be increasing again next week. However, a front will also be pushing into the Central Plains again on Tuesday. Some areas of showers and mild air will be found on the northern end of the region while it will get increasingly hot and dry across the south. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

NORTHERN PLAINS GOT RAIN THURSDAY, NEEDS MORE

High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal in the Northern Plains for this summer, causing stress to all crops. However, a system brought widespread rain to the Dakotas on Thursday with some cooler air. Though temperatures will rise this weekend, a strong cold front will push through on Monday, bringing through a burst of cool air for most of next week. Some showers will be possible along the front, but models do not have widespread heavy rain. Though Thursday's precipitation was good, deficits are very large and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING STRESS, LITTLE RAIN IN FORECAST

Though it has been hotter and drier in the Canadian Prairies over the last couple of weeks, that has helped to increase the rate of growth for much of the region. Most areas have been able to deal with this warmth because of good soil moisture, but that is dropping. Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but is not forecast to bring much precipitation with it.

ONLY LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

A front stalled in the Delta and continues to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. Any rainfall will be welcomed, but has been spotty. If the rain remains limited as forecast, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans. Temperatures are forecast to increase next week and may cause more stress.

HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS EUROPE

Yet another heat wave is settling across Europe this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for eastern areas that had better conditions. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week, when a front moving through should bring temperatures down and may come with some helpful rain. It is possible that western areas still see above-normal temperatures and limited rain, however, continuing to stress corn.

BUILDING HEAT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system moved through the Black Sea region this week, producing widespread showers. These showers were not as heavy across the south, which was somewhat disappointing for some corn and sunflower areas. As this system leaves, heat will build into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the drier south.

SYSTEM BREAKING UP A DRIER PATTERN IN AUSTRALIA NEXT WEEK

Though some showers may scrape across the south through the weekend, drier conditions have become more common in Australia with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west may be a break in the pattern next week, bringing through some scattered showers to the east by next weekend, but the drier pattern remains.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA, HEAT NOT CONCERNING RIGHT NOW

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China through next week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing. The country will also be watching the path of Super Typhoon Dolphin as it may move in next weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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