Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Daily showers increasing in the U.S. Plains, but a focus toward South American planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

EAST-WEST DIVIDE SETTING UP IN THE SHORT-TERM FOR THE MIDWEST

It is getting drier for much of the eastern half of the Midwest through the weekend, though some showers continue in Ohio on Wednesday. Several waves of showers will move through areas west of the Mississippi River through the weekend as a sort of east-west divide sets up near the Mississippi River for the next several days. A system will move through next week, likely with widespread coverage of moderate rain. The recent heavy rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with some of the drought across the north and southwest.

RAIN INCREASING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A string of somewhat solid showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop across the Central and Southern Plains for the rest of the week, producing some areas of moderate to heavy rain from New Mexico into Nebraska. A system moving through early next week should produce some widespread coverage of showers as well. That is favorable for any immature crops and moistening soils up for winter wheat planting and establishment, which has been in significantly building drought for months in many places. But for those looking to harvest, the rainfall will have some delaying effect. The rain is not forecast to be heavy enough to cause flooding, but that may be something to watch out for anyway.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Rain has been somewhat frequent and widespread across the Northern Plains lately. More showers will move into the Dakotas on Wednesday and Thursday with a small system moving through, and more are expected this weekend. Another system moving through early next week could provide good coverage of rainfall as well. All the rain chances will be helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

HARVEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES, BUT PACE STILL WELL BEHIND SCHEDULE

Harvest continues to be well behind schedule in the Canadian Prairies, and recent rain has produced quality issues. However, drier and warmer conditions through much of this week should be more favorable. That is somewhat short-lived with another system moving through with potential for widespread rain on Friday and Saturday. Models are not producing much precipitation with this system outside of Alberta, however. The weather pattern continues to be active next week with a couple of systems moving through, though widespread rain is not in the forecast. Producers may still have a difficult time catching up with harvest.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE DRY, BUT MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS STABLE

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta over the last week, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily. Dry conditions are likely through at least Saturday, with only spotty chances moving back in on Sunday. A better chance for widespread rain occurs next week with a system moving through, however.

RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL BRAZIL AT TIMES AS WET SEASON APPROACHES

Heavy rain moved back into southern Brazil over the weekend and into Monday and is now producing more limited rainfall into central Brazil. It did produce some flooding across southern states, otherwise conditions there are favorable for planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. Another front is forecast to move through next week and may kick off the annual start to the wet season in central Brazil, essentially on time this year. That should get producers planting soybeans at a relatively normal pace.

INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR ARGENTINA

Fronts have frequently moved across Argentina, but it has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting. A system moving through this weekend into early next week may produce more widespread moderate rain that the country needs, but would be followed by another burst of colder air, making corn planting rather slow. Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up through October.

DRIER WESTERN EUROPE UNFAVORABLE FOR WINTER PLANTING

Eastern Europe will see some continued rainfall over the next couple of days, but should be spotty. Meanwhile, it continues to be warm and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain. There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and still around Hungary as well. The forecast does depict a good system moving through western areas early next week, but models are just starting to produce good rainfall there. They could easily trend drier over the coming days.

SYSTEM SETTLING INTO THE BLACK SEA REGION WITH AREAS OF RAIN

A system continues to spin around the Black Sea region for the next couple of days, producing some decent rain in some areas that could use it for winter wheat planting and establishment. Otherwise, it has been on the drier side lately, so this rain is needed.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING DRY WITH SOME LIMITED SHOWERS WEST

Some showers may hit Western Australia over the next few days, with the better chances on Friday and Saturday. But eastern areas look to remain dry for about the next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola.

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER STARTING UP ACROSS CHINA

It has been largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry. Fronts may become a bit more active late this week into early October. Rain may not be extremely heavy, but would result in better coverage of moderate to perhaps spotty heavy amounts.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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