Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. with scattered showers and locally heavy rain to disrupt harvest for a few days, an improving Brazil forecast, and continued chilly temperatures in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST, SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

A system is moving across the northern Midwest on Tuesday, and another system will move through Wednesday into Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and some areas of heavy rain, particularly in Missouri. Some colder air will follow behind the system for the weekend, and a morning of frost will be possible in many areas, but temperatures will pop right back up going into early next week. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will be possible, but unlikely to be long outside of Missouri, which has better chances for heavy amounts.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AREA OF HEAVY RAIN

Hot and dry weather over the weekend continued to favor fieldwork across the Central and Southern Plains. A system will move into the region on Wednesday, pulling in some tropical moisture ahead of it, which may result in some areas of heavy rain through Thursday. Though the rain would disrupt the harvest that has already dealt with disruptions and damage, any rain will be ultimately beneficial for winter wheat and other fall forages as well as reducing drought.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

A system moved east on Monday after bringing through widespread showers and snow in Montana. Another system will move into the Central Plains on Wednesday and will send some rain northward into the Northern Plains as well. Though it is cold this week, warmer air will move back in this weekend. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will occur, but areas of heavy rain should be limited. The precipitation should continue to help reduce drought across the region.

DELTA CONTINUES TO MISS RAINFALL, DROUGHT GROWING

Drought has been growing in the Delta for some time now, but rainfall farther north has helped to keep the water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Even a front going through on Friday is forecast to be largely dry. Showers may move through next week, but the drought will continue to grow until significant rain falls in the region.

HEAVY RAIN MOVING FROM SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL BRAZIL THIS WEEK

Heavy rain is shifting from southern Brazil to central Brazil this week, while southern areas get a chance to dry out a little bit. That would be favorable for both areas as it has been too wet in the south and too dry in the north. Models are suggesting the flip in the precipitation pattern to continue somewhat next week as well, continuing to improve soil moisture for central and northern areas that haven't seen much so far in October.

CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER IN ARGENTINA

Areas of light showers are expected in Argentina throughout the week, which is helping to increase soil moisture somewhat. However, colder air has kept soil temperatures from rising very much this spring, which continue through next week. Southern areas may be slow to plant corn because of the cold, but increasing soil moisture should be overall favorable.

DRYNESS CONCERNS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF EUROPE

Scattered showers moved through much of Europe over the weekend except in Spain, which has been somewhat dry for a while now this fall. The weather pattern is complicated this week with systems favoring northern areas, but may spread showers southward at times as well. Overall though, western areas need more rain for winter crop planting and establishment, as do those in the southeast. The prospects for a lot of rainfall are fairly low, but not zero over the next two weeks.

WESTERN RUSSIA DRYNESS A CONCERN FOR WINTER WHEAT

A system stalling in Ukraine should produce showers there throughout the week, but will be harder to find in western Russia. That is creating some mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment with somewhat favorable conditions west and poor conditions east.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system brought a few showers to eastern Australia over the weekend and Monday. Part of that system may continue showers in the northeastern wheat belt for the rest of the week, otherwise it should remain fairly dry in a lot of areas, even with a couple of systems moving through. Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

LIMITED DISRUPTION TO ONGOING HARVEST IN CHINA

It was dry over the weekend, favoring corn and soybean harvest in central and northeast China. A system moved through with some showers on Monday, but did not affect very many areas. A larger system is forecast for Friday through the weekend with much more widespread coverage that may cause more disruption. However, this should help out winter wheat and canola areas to get some more moisture for establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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