Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain, localized flooding, and a strong temperature gradient are possible in the Midwest through the end of this week as the storm track across South America favors southern Brazil. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN MIDWEST WITH HOT TEMPERATURES SOUTH

A cold front will continue to push into the region early this week and stall, continuing areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Another system is forecast to move along that front this weekend into early next week with more widespread rain. The rain will not be helpful for many areas that are looking for drier conditions to get some harvest and other fieldwork done. Rain could cause some areas of flooding and perhaps some quality issues but may also help with some of the drought conditions across the north. Southern areas will be hotter as they stay south of the front and see drought conditions increasing if the system doesn't move through with adequate rain this weekend.

STORMY PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND

Monday's cold front will continue to sweep south, targeting Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas on Tuesday. Late this week into the weekend, scattered showers will be likely from West Texas into Nebraska. The stormy pattern is both favorable and unfavorable. While the rain could improve drought and increase moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment, it could slow down corn harvest in Kansas and Texas. Temperatures will remain above average for much of Oklahoma and Texas this week, dipping closer to average for the Central Plains.

HEAVY RAIN RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY

Widespread showers and gusty winds moved through on Monday. Spotty showers are possible during the middle of the week, but heavier rain could return across the Dakotas on Friday. The heavy rain is too late to significantly improve maturing corn and soybeans but should help with the ongoing drought.

DRY AND HOT IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA

Largely hot and dry conditions are expected this week, though showers may increase early next week as a cold front may finally make it that far south. Overall, drought is expected to grow this week, unfavorable for any immature cotton or soybeans, but favoring harvest. Rain farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep water levels from getting too low on the Mississippi River but will be something to watch as rain stays north of the Ohio Valley this week.

QUALITY CONCERNS FOR THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A big system moved through on Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rain, especially across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. With harvest far behind schedule, the rain will be unfavorable for those trying to catch up and may cause further damage or quality problems in the region. Later this week into the upcoming weekend, swaths of showers could continue to drift through the southern Prairies. Temperatures will be cooler early this week, which could enhance quality problems; however, above-average temperatures will gradually build across the region late this week into early next week.

RAIN FAVORING SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Scattered showers continued across south-central Brazil on Monday, but dry conditions are expected Tuesday-Thursday. Another front will arrive this weekend with more showers for southern areas. Some central areas could pick up a few showers, but they would be spotty while southern areas get more heavy rain. Outside of some flooding risks, the rain is favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting in the south while central areas await the lifting of restrictions and the start of the wet season at the end of the month.

FROST CONCERNS LINGER IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

A front moved through this weekend but was fairly dry outside of a few lucky areas in the south that saw only light rain. Cold air that moved in produced some areas of frosts and freezes across the south, keeping growth slow for winter wheat. Soils are still too cold for much corn planting to occur as well, which usually picks up toward the end of the month. Dry weather this week won't help as many areas are becoming too dry. More rain is needed, especially across the south, which may not arrive until Sunday.

MORE RAIN STILL NEEDED IN THE BLACK SEA

A system will continue to move through the region on Tuesday, but with spotty rainfall. Soil moisture is a bit low but not critical for winter wheat planting and establishment. There are some opportunities coming up later this week and through next week, but more rain than what is forecast would be preferred.

RAIN RETURNS TO WESTERN AUSTRALIA LATE THIS WEEK

It continues to be a fairly dry pattern across much of Australia, though some spotty rain did move through southern areas this weekend. A system may move through Western Australia Friday-Saturday, which could help, but rain is becoming more critical with more of the winter wheat and canola crop getting into reproductive stages of growth.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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