Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system producing widespread precipitation for areas of the Corn Belt that saw drought expand on today's U.S. Drought Monitor, and another heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

RAIN, MILDER TEMPERATURES SPREADING THROUGH MIDWEST

A stalled front in Missouri produced some limited showers on Wednesday. A system will move through the Midwest through the weekend and stands a great chance at producing widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as bring in some milder air to the whole region. In addition, another cold front will move into the region next week in a couple of bursts, which will be a factor in producing more areas of showers and bring some mild temperatures. That will be helpful for the expanding drought in the region. Some areas will see improving conditions, but areas to the south of next week's front are likely to return to hotter and drier conditions that could become worse. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and need more rain and milder temperatures to stabilize during the most important time for filling corn and soybeans heading into August.

LIMITED RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front in the Central Plains has produced some scattered showers over the last couple of days, which continues on Thursday with a system moving through. South of this front remains hot. Cooler air will move through behind the system for Friday into the weekend, but will be brief with rising temperatures next week. A front should stall out in the Central Plains again next week, which may bring some milder temperatures and showers there while southern areas get hot and dry again. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, COOLER NEXT WEEK

High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal in the Northern Plains for this summer, causing stress to all crops and slowly expanding drought. But that looks to be changing to some degree. A system will bring through widespread rain to the Dakotas on Thursday with some cooler air. Though temperatures will rise this weekend, a strong cold front will push through on Monday, bringing through a burst of cool air. Some showers will be possible along the front, but models do not have widespread heavy rain. If the rain is widespread on Thursday, it will be highly beneficial. But if it remains more isolated, like the potential showers for next week, there will be more stress for reproductive to filling crops.

SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING STRESS ON EDGE OF HEAT

Though it has been hotter and drier in the Canadian Prairies over the last couple of weeks, that should have little impact on crop conditions as it allowed for enhanced growth and fill while most areas have had good soil moisture. However, areas in the southwest may be too hot and dry, where stress is most likely to show up. The region remains on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers and above-normal temperatures. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but may not bring much precipitation with it.

STALLED FRONT IN THE DELTA PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS

A front has stalled in the Delta and continues to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Any rainfall will be welcomed in the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans. Temperatures are forecast to increase next week and may cause more stress.

ANOTHER HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS EUROPE

Yet another heat wave is settling across Europe this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for eastern areas that had better conditions. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week, when a front moving through should bring temperatures down and may come with some helpful rain. It is possible that western areas still see above-normal temperatures and limited rain, however.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION, THEN BUILDING HEAT

A system moving through the Black Sea region this week is exiting on Thursday after bringing widespread showers. Showers were not as heavy across the south, which was somewhat disappointing for some corn and sunflower areas. As this system leaves, heat will build into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the drier south.

SYSTEM BREAKING UP A DRIER PATTERN IN AUSTRALIA

Though some showers may scrape across southern Australia through the weekend, drier conditions have become more common with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west may be a break in the pattern next week, bringing through some scattered showers, but the drier pattern remains.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA, HEAT NOT CONCERNING RIGHT NOW

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China into next week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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