Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A big storm this weekend followed by a burst of arctic air in the U.S., and a front in the midst of a drier pattern in Argentina and southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

BIG WINTER STORM FOR MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

A system moved through the Midwest on Monday and Tuesday with scattered rain showers. And a clipper system immediately followed on Tuesday that is moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. That system is bringing through some breezy winds with heavy snow across the north, along with a burst of much cooler air that will turn on the lake-effect snow through Friday. Another big system will move into the region late Friday and continue east through the weekend. More widespread heavy snow is forecast with this system, especially from Iowa through Michigan. That will be followed by a burst of arctic air that will set the stage for an overall cold December. A couple of additional systems may move through next week that could have wintry impacts as well, but models are struggling with their development. For those with fieldwork to do, the window is closing rapidly.

MIXED CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

A cold front moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday with a burst of much cooler air, and will setup a significant winter storm system that will move into the region on Friday and Saturday. Models are working out the details, but heavy rain, severe weather, snow, and strong winds are all possible. Northeast Nebraska has the best chance at accumulating snow on Saturday. That will be followed by a massive burst of arctic air that will send most winter wheat areas dormant as we usher in winter. Another system may move through early next week that may have impacts as well, but the forecast is for milder conditions by the end of next week.

COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE SNOW COMING

A system brought some heavy snow to the Northern Plains on Tuesday, along with strong winds that created blizzard conditions for at least a while. A big drop in temperature has followed behind it and will be in place the rest of the week. Even more cold air will move in behind another system that will move through Friday and Saturday. Again, heavy snow and strong winds could create blizzard conditions and temperatures will fall like a rock behind it, ushering in winter and ending fieldwork opportunities.

SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

Water levels have risen on the Mississippi River but are still low. However, heavy rain earlier this week and more coming up will be helpful. A major winter storm is forecast to move through the country this weekend with another a couple of days later. These systems may produce enough to boost water levels for at least a brief moment to reduce restrictions, though that is uncertain. A more active weather pattern is forecast for the winter, which should produce more beneficial precipitation to aid water levels with time.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL STALLING THE DRYING PROCESS

Scattered showers continue in central and northern Brazil throughout the week. A front will move through the south Sunday and Monday, but showers are forecast to be brief. Overall, below-normal rainfall is in the forecast through early December, which may start to turn conditions around as we move into the heart of the growing season. Good soil moisture is still in place across the south so that should be a slow process.

ARGENTINA TRENDING DRIER, BUT SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND

Soil moisture remains high across Argentina, but the country is in a drier pattern. Despite that, a front will move through with scattered showers this weekend and some areas may see heavy rain. Otherwise, dry weather continues into December. Without heat causing stress, the loss of soil moisture will be slow to occur, but appears to produce momentum for worsening weather conditions with time.

EUROPE REMAINS IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN

Scattered showers continue to move across Europe in waves through next week, which has been the case for several weeks now. That has been favorable for winter grains. Some areas in the east have seen significant snowfall, and recent cool temperatures have pushed some areas into dormancy across the central and north. Very few areas on the continent are in poor shape heading into winter.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Systems have been targeting Ukraine and northwestern Russia with scattered precipitation recently. Though precipitation has been better late this fall season, there are many areas with deficits, especially in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe will only produce limited showers through next week, and mostly across the northwest again. Above-normal temperatures have slowed the progress toward dormancy, which should have occurred for most areas by now, but is probably not found in anything other than far northern areas.

SHOWERS LIMITED IN AUSTRALIA

Patchy rainfall has been the norm in Australia for the last several weeks, leading to mixed conditions. That trend continues this week. Wheat and canola harvest continues to increase, but soil moisture is lacking in some areas for the cotton and sorghum crops, with planting ongoing between showers.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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