Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another front moving across the U.S. with scattered showers, a very active weather pattern for next week, scattered showers in the Canadian Prairies, and dryness problems in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN NEXT WEEK

A front is moving through the Midwest on Wednesday and into Thursday, but the coverage of showers is likely to remain low. For some of the wet areas in Illinois and Indiana, the lack of showers would be more favorable, but areas across the north and south would like to see the rain. Temperatures will generally remain mild this week, but will be increasing for next week, especially across the south. That will set up a very active pattern across the region similar to the one from two weeks ago that produced the heavy rain and severe weather. That will need to be watched to see if additional flooding and severe weather move through again in early September.

AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated to scattered showers have continued to develop in the Central and Southern Plains since the weekend. However, it has been, and continues to be, extremely hot across Texas and Oklahoma and drought continues to deepen and expand. A front will produce another day or two of showers, which may suppress high temperatures for a couple of days; otherwise, heat will continue to be a problem for the south. More fronts are forecast this weekend and next week as well, but are likely to stall and produce showers across the north compared to the south, which will trend drier yet again.

SHORT PERIOD OF DRYNESS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MORE SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND

The Northern Plains is drier the next couple of days, but that should change drastically with a system moving through on Friday and Saturday that will be the start of near-daily showers and thunderstorms into early September. Some areas have been very dry for quite a long time, so these chances for rain need to pay off or yield potential will continue to decrease.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES DODGING SHOWERS AS HARVEST PICKS UP

A system brought scattered showers to the Canadian Prairies over the last few days, but has left. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more scattered showers and the pattern may feature a couple more systems next week as well. Most of the region would prefer it to be warmer and drier, which would help the remaining immature crop into maturity and allow for better conditions for harvest. While temperatures should be warmer overall, the rain will be somewhat of a hindrance.

STALLED FRONT BRINGING NEEDED RAIN TO PARTS OF THE DELTA

Showers were more widespread across the Delta over the weekend and again on Monday, producing some flooding in some areas of Arkansas. A front will remain in the region for the next couple of days that could produce more rain. Drought had been expanding quickly over the last several weeks and the rain is much-needed. Temperatures will still remain above normal throughout the week despite the front, especially across the south, so the rainfall will be important for filling soybeans and cotton. Temperatures next week are expected again to be well above normal while the focus for rain shifts northward again, an unfavorable way to end the season for immature crops.

BUSY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EUROPE IS TOO LATE FOR THIS YEAR, BETTER FOR NEXT YEAR

Scattered showers continue to move through Europe this week and through at least a portion of next week, including some areas of heavy rain. That is much too late for this season's crops as it was too hot and dry for too long to provide any real benefit to corn, spring wheat, or other small grains. However, it should start to prime soils for winter crop planting, which will start to occur over the next few weeks.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia has seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through next week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA FINDING RAIN DURING DRIER PATTERN

Some showers went through eastern Australia on Monday and Tuesday, bringing through some rather widespread moderate rainfall. Another front is bringing showers into western areas over the next couple of days, but it will not reach the east. Overall, soil moisture has been falling for a lot of the country's wheat belt, unfavorable for developing wheat and canola as they start to become reproductive over the next few weeks. September rainfall will be very important for crop prospects, but it is expected to be drier than normal with the building El Nino in the Pacific.

CHINA WATCHING FOR TYPHOONS TO UPSET FAVORABLE SEASON

Scattered showers continue to fall across the primary corn and soybean areas in China, maintaining good soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans. The tropics are becoming more active and Typhoon Saudel will move into central China just north of Taiwan early Friday. As long as that track doesn't change, the primary corn and soybean acres will be spared yet again from heavy rainfall. But these tropical systems will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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