Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will be heavy across the Corn Belt, recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and few other global weather issues are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDWEST

A front dragged across the eastern half of the Midwest over the weekend, producing some areas of showers and thunderstorms as well as some damaging winds. The front stalled across the western half of the region, producing some areas of heavy rain for spots that had been getting drier. The front will have a tendency to slowly progress eastward for the front half of the week, continuing scattered showers over much of the region. A front that pushes through Wednesday through Friday, and disturbances that follow over the weekend and again next week should keep the region busy with precipitation chances. Some areas will inevitably be missed, but some are also going to get hit too often, which may result in some unfortunate flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Warm temperatures early this week will become much more mild by the weekend.

CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, especially across Texas and Oklahoma where rain was very heavy in some locations. Multiple systems will move through this week with potential for areas of showers and thunderstorms, especially in Nebraska and Kansas. Though there will be showers around this week, the potential for a lot of heavy rain in the primary wheat growing areas is somewhat low until the weekend, which may give a few good days for doing fieldwork. Temperatures will be hot for a few days this week, but will decrease late in the week and go below normal starting on Sunday, which will be more likely for next week as well. The combination of mild temperatures and somewhat frequent rain should be good for developing corn and soybeans.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, creating some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. The region will be the target for multiple additional fronts and systems moving through over the next week or two. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought. Temperatures will be falling below normal by later in the week and likely maintaining that position through much of next week, keeping stress low but growth slow.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and severe weather and heavy rain moved through eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Periods of rainfall will continue both this week and next week with a trough settling into the region. Though there may be some damage, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. However, planting progress remains behind the average progress in all three provinces, and the continued rainfall will not be helpful for that.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA

Scattered showers moved back into the Delta over the weekend and more are likely for the next few days with a front stalled in the Midwest. Additional fronts moving through will bring more showers later this week, weekend, and next week, keeping the potential for high soil moisture and drought reduction in the cards. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

SHOWERS RETURNING TO BRAZIL

A front started to move into southern Brazil on Sunday and will bring showers on Monday and Tuesday. The front is likely to stall and continue showers across south-central states Wednesday through Friday and maybe even into the weekend. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EUROPE

A system moved through Europe over the weekend, bringing mostly light showers through the continent. A couple more systems will move through this week as well, with more widespread precipitation and some areas of heavier rain. Some areas across France may not get much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent.

SHOWERY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST

A system that moved across Europe brought some heavier rain across the western Black Sea region over the weekend while it was favorably drier in the east. Those showers continue on Monday. More spotty showers are expected for the rest of the week before a system starts moving in on Friday with more widespread and heavier rain for the weekend that will spread east next week.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

It was drier in Australia over the weekend, but many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. A couple of systems will bring through scattered showers this week, especially to the west. More systems will be possible next week as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers moved through central and northeastern China over the weekend, continuing overall favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas saw showers, but drier conditions occurred for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast this week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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