Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another couple of dry days in the U.S., but with hurricanes having an outsized influence on the weather through next week, and a continued focus on South America planting are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

FAVORABLE FIELDWORK WEATHER FOR MIDWEST, RAIN POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Dry weather continues in the Midwest this week, allowing fields to dry out and producers to get back out into the field for harvest, winter wheat planting, and other fieldwork. Some showers may spread into the region from late Saturday into Monday due to Tropical Storm Isaias developing in the Gulf, though the coverage and intensity are uncertain. Otherwise, the next chance for significant rain will hold off until about the middle of next week with a system moving through.

DRIER WEATHER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FAVORING MORE FIELDWORK

Dry, warm, and sunny weather continues in the Central and Southern Plains through the weekend. That will help soils to dry and producers to get out and resume fieldwork. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, drought is still a big issue in the region. And although wet areas will get a chance to drain, the drier weather is not favorable for winter wheat establishment. However, a system will likely move through next week with scattered showers. Models are having a tough time with the forecast, though.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING DRY UNTIL WEEKEND

Dry weather continues in the Northern Plains over the next several days, aiding in fieldwork progress. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into next week. There could even be enough cold air for some accumulating snow. Models show some potential for this, but not much confidence in the overall forecast. Either way, this system will disrupt harvest, but only briefly as the pattern still promotes an overall drier look for October.

HURRICANE ISAIAS LIKELY TO IMPACT DELTA THIS WEEKEND

Drought continues to grow in the Delta, but recent heavy rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Dry weather continues for the next few days, but Tropical Storm Isaias will likely become a hurricane in the Gulf, moving northward and spreading some rain into the region this weekend. Despite that, rainfall amounts may not be heavy enough to significantly improve soil moisture in the region, though confidence is still somewhat low.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL, LIMITED RAIN NORTH

A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil over the last couple of days and some more limited coverage to central Brazil as well. Southern areas will continue to have fronts move in with scattered showers into next week, which could create some flooding concerns, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers aren't developing just yet. Models suggest better development later next week, but they will need to come or we could see dryness issues developing quickly this month.

COOL AND RAINY IN ARGENTINA

Below-normal temperatures have been a concern in Argentina so far this spring, keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south. Otherwise, the weather pattern is favoring more widespread showers across the country through next week, which is more favorable for developing wheat and corn planting after the last few months of inadequate rainfall.

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EUROPE THIS WEEK

A system in western Europe will move east over the next couple of days, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of the continent. The weather pattern will stay active across northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south may be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA REGION STILL DRIER

Recent dryness in the Black Sea region has helped producers do fieldwork, but has created mixed conditions for winter wheat establishment with fair conditions in Ukraine, but poorer conditions in western Russia. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with only spotty showers now in Ukraine with a front on Friday and another system this weekend. Western Russia is forecast to stay drier through next week now, which is very unfavorable there.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA DURING DRIER OVERALL PATTERN

A system will bring a few showers to western Australia on Wednesday and then eastern areas for Friday and Saturday, but with limited coverage and intensity. Another system could bring some heavier showers to eastern areas Sunday and Monday, but that is uncertain. While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

LIMITED DISRUPTION TO ONGOING HARVEST IN CHINA

Though there has been some disruption to the corn and soybean harvest over the last week or so, dry weather in central and northeast Chian this week and much of next should promote better harvest conditions. Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment, but more rain would be favorable there.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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