Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain with mild temperatures across the Corn Belt but with a change to much warmer in the forecast, more rain in the Canadian Prairies, and heat and dryness in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SHOWERY AND MILD FOR THE MIDWEST, HOTTER THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

The pattern stays active in the Midwest for the rest of this week as a system rolls through for Wednesday and Thursday, and another goes through the south on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures remain mild, but a warm front will lift northward on Sunday with much more heat and humidity for next week. That may actually be beneficial as we are behind with growing degree days and could use some heat to reduce excess moisture in some areas. The chances for rain will continue next week too, especially for some of the drier areas in the north, albeit at a reduced pace. As long as the rain develops, that causes little cause for concern with the increasing temperatures, at least in the short term. Should this heat last longer than forecast, we could see stress quickly developing.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMING ISOLATED

A front continues to be draped across the Central and Southern Plains where showers and thunderstorms have been bringing areas of heavy rain. Additional systems moving to the north continue to bring more showers to other areas of the region for the remainder of the week as well, especially in the west. While this will be favorable for summer crops, it may lead to issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest and bring quality issues. Temperatures will be cooler across the north but hotter south of that stalled front. The pattern will trend warmer and drier with only spotty rain chances for next week, causing more areas of stress.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, STAYING COOLER

Small disturbances will bring some areas of showers to the Northern Plains for the rest of the week. But a stronger system will move in this weekend and produce more widespread heavy rain and potential severe weather. Some occasional showers could linger well into next week. While the rainfall is favorable, there could be some flooding and temperatures remain below normal. That keeps stress low, but growth slow.

SHOWERS WITH MILD AIR CONTINUING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system left on Tuesday after bringing areas of heavy rain. Scattered showers continue the next couple of days, boosting soil moisture in the Canadian Prairies. A larger storm system will move in over the weekend with more widespread heavy rain chances well into next week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for the rest of the month, causing growth to be slow. Though the temperatures would be better if they were higher, and should be in early July, the continued rainfall in the region should be overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of severe weather and flooding will be possible.

MORE SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA, HOTTER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND

A stalled front continues to produce rain chances in the Delta through Thursday, keeping soil moisture high in most of the region, but also bringing potential for flooding in some areas. Another front will move into the far north and bring showers for Friday and Saturday. The front will lift northward on Sunday and temperatures will increase while the pattern dries out. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well.

SOME RAIN MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL

A front continues scattered showers in south-central Brazil through Thursday. Some very cold air is moving into the south. Though some patchy frost will be possible, it should not impact corn areas and will have no effect on the young wheat. Though some late-planted corn could benefit from the rain, much of the crop is heading toward maturity and will not. Another front will bring some showers to the south on Sunday and Monday.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILDING ACROSS EUROPE

Heat continues to spread across Europe this week, and has been extremely hot in France where temperatures have been eclipsing 100 degrees. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops significantly. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas late this week and weekend, but relief from the heat will be tough to accomplish until maybe next week.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers continue to be frequent in the Black Sea region this week, especially in Russia. It may quiet down next week, but some areas of showers will continue. Heat will be building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. Some warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued growth and development of both wheat and corn.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

Drier conditions are forecast in Australia for the next couple of days, but a system will move through the west on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend. The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, getting most areas with showers over the next 7 days or so. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. The dry effect is more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in northeast China, which likely continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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