Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A dry forecast for most of the U.S. and the prospect of a big storm rolling through Argentina and central Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

DRIER FOR THE MIDWEST

Last week's heavy rain from the remnants of Helene helped ease the drought situation in the Midwest, increase water levels for the Mississippi River system, and moisten soils for winter wheat planting, but may have caused damage due to flooding and winds. Dryness elsewhere has led to increasing drought. A front moving through the Midwest is producing some limited, but significant rain in Iowa and Illinois early Friday, but should dissipate in the morning. Another front will move through this weekend, but with limited precipitation across the north. The front may bring some cooler air through early next week, but temperatures will rebound quickly in the west. The overall warm and dry conditions are favorable for fieldwork.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warm to hot temperatures and dry conditions continue in the Central and Southern Plains through next week, favorable for harvest, but not for winter wheat establishment. The next chance for rain would be next weekend at the earliest, but even that looks scarce.

DRY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Fronts keep moving through the Northern Plains but are not bringing any precipitation. Winds have been elevated though, increasing the risk of wildfires. Temperatures continue to be above normal despite the fronts moving through. One front moves through Saturday with strong winds and another late next week or weekend will be possible as well.

DELTA DRY AGAIN

In the Delta, last week's heavy rain from Helene brought reductions of drought and increased water levels on the Mississippi River, but also caused some flooding and potential quality reductions to mature crops. Dry conditions are forecast through next week, which should be helpful for harvest, but not for any winter crop establishment or water levels on the Mississippi River.

SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AFTER HELENE

The recent heavy rain from Hurricane Helene has reduced drought in the Southeast, though it caused a host of flood damage for Georgia through the Carolinas. Some showers may move through on Friday, but most areas will stay dry through next week. We will be watching a potential tropical system moving into the Gulf of Mexico, but the current forecast is to keep its heavy rain and other impacts over Florida.

CENTRAL BRAZIL LOOKING AT A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK

Wet season showers continue to be spotty in central Brazil into next week. The late start of significant rain is causing a slow start to soybean planting, which will have a more significant impact for the coming safrinha corn and cotton crops that will be planted in early 2025. Southern Brazil has had more opportunities to pick up good rainfall over recent weeks, which continued this week. A front is forecast for next week which may penetrate deeper into central Brazil. That could be the kicker the region needs to start widespread soybean planting.

SYSTEM FOR ARGENTINA FAVORS THE NORTH

Most areas of Argentina have stayed dry this week, continuing the trend that has significantly delayed corn planting for western areas and caused some to abandon their winter wheat due to poor conditions. Far southern and eastern areas have fared better. A system will move in on Sunday with showers for northern areas, but could produce more widespread rain early next week. Models have been backing off on heavier rain for southwestern areas that are in the deepest drought, but this system would not reverse the outstanding drought anyway. More rain is going to be needed soon to stave off the significant late corn plantings and increase soil moisture for the limited crop that has already been planted. Soybean planting starts in November and delays to that crop could come there if rain doesn't come this month either.

SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EUROPE

A system dipped down into the Mediterranean and is producing better rainfall for southeastern Europe for the next couple of days. More systems are lining to move through the continent for next week as well, bringing periods of heavy rain. Soil moisture is overall pretty high, though some areas have dealt with wetness and flooding that have caused issues for winter wheat planting and corn harvest.

UNRELENTING DROUGHT IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Western areas of the Black Sea region have seen precipitation over the last couple of weeks, but eastern Ukraine and western Russia have been very dry for months and the systems moving through Europe are not bringing the needed rainfall there for winter wheat planting. This continues to be the case this weekend as showers moving into western areas from a system in Europe largely dry out before getting eastward. Additional showers may pass into western areas from European systems next week, but eastern areas are forecast to remain rather dry. Though temperatures have been and continue to be quite warm, the risk of frost will increase throughout October, giving a very limited window for getting rainfall into the region for winter wheat to grow roots before the stronger freezes move in.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA

A system moved through Australia this week, which has produced good rainfall for western areas, but spotty showers for eastern areas that are more in need of rainfall. A couple of fronts will pass through eastern areas next week, but the forecast is for limited showers only, not the widespread rain the region needs.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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