Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A significant heat wave across the northern U.S. during corn pollination, very little precipitation surrounding it, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDWEST

It continues to be very hot and increasingly humid across the Midwest for the next few days. Models still have significant differences in the temperature forecast for the end of the week as a front dips south on Wednesday night and Thursday, which would limit the heat across eastern areas and bring some limited showers. Some additional showers may start to develop across the region late this week anyway. A front will come through this weekend which will put an end to the excessive heat with a second front moving through Sunday and Monday bringing much cooler air in for next week. Those two fronts plus some additional disturbances could bring through some meaningful rain in some areas, but miss others. How widespread all that rain becomes will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination, but soybeans could see some stress as well.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR TEXAS, CENTRAL PLAINS GETTING HOTTER

A stalled front across the far south will continue showers across Texas through the end of the week. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the Central Plains bake in a summer heat wave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture while increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heat wave could reverse that quickly in some areas. However, the front moving in next week may stall in the region. If it does, we could see some enhanced rainfall at times.

HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A major heat wave continues in the Northern Plains for the next few days before a front moves through with relief this weekend. Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture will evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages looks likely. Even with the heat wave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal in Montana while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME WARMTH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies is on the edge of a heat wave. Some more significant heat may make its way into the west later this week ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING ISOLATED ACROSS THE DELTA

A front has produced widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Delta over the last several days. Those continue on Wednesday, but will tend to migrate northward into the Midwest for the end of the week. The showers have been keeping temperatures down to more seasonable levels this week. With a front clearing through early next week with more showers and milder temperatures, conditions remain overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

DAMAGING HEAT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE CONTINUES DESPITE SOME RELIEF LATER THIS WEEK

It continues to be hot in western Europe and is trying to expand eastward. However, a system in the Atlantic will move across the west over the next couple of days, and then through the east for Friday and Saturday. This will bring widespread showers through the continent and some cooler air. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Systems are forecast to frequently spin through the Black Sea region this week and next, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall. Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

STARTING TO SLOWLY GET DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

After some showers earlier this week, conditions should be drier overall across eastern Australia. Across the west, a front will move in on Thursday and continue showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, and it may be becoming drier with time going into late July and August. If the drier trends hold beyond that, it would come during a more vulnerable period for both wheat and canola as they get into reproductive stages.

EASTERN CHINA RECOVERING FROM TYPHOON BAVI

The remnant low of Typhoon Bavi brought heavy rain through the North China Plain into the northeast earlier this week. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through this week, and the repeated hits could be a little troublesome for flooding on the North China Plain. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across a lot of the corn and soybean areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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