Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, dryness in Australia, and good planting weather in Brazil but not Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SEVERAL FRONTS AND SYSTEMS BRINGING SHOWERS TO MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A strong cold front continues to push through the Midwest over the next couple of days with areas of scattered showers and milder air. Another rise in temperatures will occur ahead of the next front moving through this weekend. And another system is forecast to move through early next week. These fronts and systems should increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields as the crop matures faster than normal in many areas. Soggier conditions could be a little troublesome for early harvest, and may impact quality in some areas if the rain is too heavy.

MULTIPLE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT HEAVY RAIN NEEDED TO COMBAT DROUGHT

Showers are forming along a front that is dropping through the Central and Southern Plains, helping to moisten soils a little while easing the extreme heat for a couple of days. However, temperatures will jump right back up again for the weekend as it continues to be extremely hot and intense, especially across the South. Another front will move in this weekend and early next week with scattered showers, but mostly for northern areas. It will be difficult to plant winter wheat with the continued hot and largely dry conditions for the time being, even with those showers. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING BRIEF BREAK BEFORE MORE RAIN MOVES IN

While some showers may go through the Northern Plains over the next several days, many areas will stay dry. However, another system will move through this weekend into Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest activities.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IMPACTING HARVEST AND QUALITY

A system brought widespread heavy rain to the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and into Tuesday. Though some areas could use rain for drought reduction, the rain is coming at a poor time for grain quality and harvest, which will be suffering. Multiple more systems are forecast to move through the region through next week, bringing additional precipitation to cause problems. Some models are producing areas of snow with a system that moves through next week. While that may be unlikely, it continues to be the case that cold air will be on the way and make it more difficult for harvest going forward.

SPOTTY SHOWERS, STILL HOT IN DELTA

It continues to be hot in the Delta with some isolated showers closer to the Gulf for the next couple of days. A front will slip down into the region on Friday that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend, but the current conditions support increasing drought. With much of the crop reaching toward maturity, the rainfall will not be helpful, but will be needed to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport.

SPRING PLANTING IN BRAZIL STARTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

A front is stalling out and producing scattered showers in southern and central Brazil for the next few days. Another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers even longer. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early planting. Some areas in central Brazil are awaiting the lifting of soybean planting restrictions, but are getting some decent rainfall that should prime soils for when the restrictions are lifted. The true start to the wet season may be about three weeks away, but the early rain is certainly helpful for producers.

ARGENTINA NEEDS SOME RAIN AND WARMTH TO START CORN PLANTING

A front moved through Argentina this past weekend, but was largely dry and brought through some cold air that caused areas of frosts and freezes, especially south. While this would not have caused much harm to vegetative winter wheat, it is keeping growth slow and soil temperatures too cold to start corn planting. Another front will move through on Friday with more light showers and another burst of cold air for the weekend.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING

Scattered showers continue to move through Europe this week with a couple of systems, but forecast amounts are a bit low. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. Northern areas have been seeing better rainfall to increase soil moisture for winter wheat planting, but could be causing some issues for corn harvest.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A front moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, bringing scattered showers. Some moderate rain fell in southwestern Russia while it was light elsewhere. Systems moving through Europe may produce some limited showers through next week, but most areas will remain dry. Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat planting and establishment, but it will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING IN RATHER DRY PATTERN

A couple of fronts could bring some showers to Western Australia late this week and weekend, but the country is in a rather dry pattern overall. Rain is needed as more wheat and canola get into reproductive stages, but very little is in the forecast.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA ARE DRIER AS CORN AND SOYBEANS MATURE

It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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