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Market Impact Weather 07/24 08:18
Rising Heat and Uncertain Precipitation Through Next Week
Heat spreading through the Corn Belt this weekend with limited rainfall,
overall good growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and another upcoming
heatwave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.
John Baranick
Staff Meteorologist
MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat spreading through the Corn Belt this weekend with
limited rainfall, overall good growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and
another upcoming heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the
markets Friday.
TEMPERATURES RISING FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIMITED RAINFALL
Cool and dry air has been relieving stresses for plants and livestock in the
Midwest over the last couple of days, but soils remain rather dry. Temperatures
rise again this weekend. Another front moving through early next week could
bring through another round of milder air along with some areas of showers, but
the showers do not look to be widespread. Another front will move through late
next week and weekend, bringing more showers and another burst of milder air.
Overall, many areas are going to stay dry or see limited precipitation,
unfavorable for pollinating-to-filling corn and pod-setting soybeans.
RAIN ENDING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT RISING THIS WEEKEND
A stalled cold front has been producing periods of showers and thunderstorms
in the Central Plains the last couple of days, some with heavy rain, which
continues on Friday. Temperatures will rise this weekend, causing more stress
as above-normal temperatures continue for much of next week. We will be
watching to see if a cold front can come down mid or late next week with some
showers and some milder air, or if those fronts will bypass the region and
leave it hot and dry.
TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WEEKEND
Temperatures will rise in Montana on Friday and be excessive. The heat will
spread eastward this weekend. Some showers have been moving through South
Dakota this week, but most areas have been dry. A system moving through Canada
this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some
showers and we could see some spotty areas of showers next week. But overall,
below normal rainfall is expected while above-normal temperatures continue next
week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing to
reproductive crops.
WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
Temperatures are rising in the Canadian Prairies and will stay largely above
normal through next week. Several systems will likely move through the region
over the coming week, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer
temperatures. This should be a mostly favorable combination after a cool and
wet season thus far, but some areas in the southwest are likely to be too warm
and dry and will see stress developing.
HIGHER TEMPERATURES, LITTLE RAINFALL UNFAVORABLE IN THE DELTA
Though a front has stalled in the Delta and Tropical Storm Bertha moved
across southern Louisiana on Wednesday, it has been drier this week. Some
spotty showers will be possible over the weekend, but it will generally be dry
with rising temperatures. Another front may bring through some milder air again
in the middle of next week, but is forecast to stay mostly dry. The largely
hotter and drier forecast will mean more stresses for reproductive cotton and
soybeans.
ANOTHER HEAT WAVE FOR EUROPE NEXT WEEK
A system should spread showers across Europe on Sunday and Monday, but
rainfall will be limited in France that has been extremely dry this summer. Yet
another heat wave will spread across Europe next week, creating more damage to
western areas. Eastern areas will start to see stresses developing again after
some rather favorable weather over the last week.
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEKEND
A system that brought widespread showers to Ukraine this week continues in
western Russia with several impulses moving through the weekend with scattered
showers. Another system will move through early next week with more showers.
Conditions are still largely favorable for developing to reproductive corn with
some exceptions.
SLOWLY DRYING OUT IN AUSTRALIA
Some spotty showers may be possible this week and next, but drier weather is
starting to become more common for Australia as El Nino starts to really settle
in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should
this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola
get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.
MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA
Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but
flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres.
Scattered showers will continue to be fairly widespread through next week,
being mostly favorable for both crops. There may be some heat in the northeast
next week, which would be a little stressful for a few areas that have been
missing the frequent showers this summer, but otherwise not concerning.
John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com
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This is not presented as a commodity trading recommendation. Weather is only one of many factors which can influence the market on any given day.
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