Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heavy rainfall across the central U.S., frosts this weekend, isolated showers in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through the Midwest this week, favoring the Great Lakes with heavy rain and leaving the south near the Ohio River much drier. The rainfall has come with severe weather and heavy rain, limiting fieldwork, while other areas have seen soil temperatures rising enough to start planting. A strong cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday will bring a final round of showers and thunderstorms through, again with some severe weather. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front, producing frosts over large areas of the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, and a slow-moving system is likely to produce more widespread precipitation later next week. The region is not out of the cold just yet though, as we may see colder temperatures working back in next weekend, and there are signals for cold in early May as well. While planting is off to a good start, the coming colder temperatures and heavy rain may cause some delays in planting.

DROUGHT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, FROSTS THIS WEEKEND

Drought continues to expand in the southwest as this part of the Central and Southern Plains continues to be bypassed by precipitation. A strong cold front will move through on Friday into early Saturday. This front may bring a mix of rain and snow to western areas, but amounts do not look heavy, instead favoring the southeast again with severe weather. Cold air will bring frosts and freezes over the weekend that may be damaging to more advanced wheat. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though. Models have moved away from a slow-moving system with widespread precipitation for next week, instead following a similar pattern of drier conditions for the southwest. The long-range forecast suggests multiple opportunities for southwestern areas to get some rain, but nothing is guaranteed, and the wheat crop will continue to battle harsh conditions until rain comes.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS, VARIABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A strong cold front continues to move through the Northern Plains on Friday, bringing through a bit of snow and a punch of some much colder air. Temperatures will rebound early next week, though, as more showers build across the region for mid-late week. The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods later next week and possibly into May as well. Drought in the west and south will surely take any precipitation with the variable conditions.

EXTREME COLD FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Temperatures have been cold in the Canadian Prairies this spring, and snow still exists across the north. A strong cold front moved through on Thursday, bringing accumulating snow and extremely cold temperatures. Most areas did not make it above freezing on Thursday and will not today while eastern areas stay cold through Saturday. Though temperatures rise early next week, we are likely to see them fall again later next week as another system moves through. The overall cold conditions are causing delays for rising soil temperatures, and the snow isn't helping either. If this continues into May, as currently forecast, there will be tighter planting windows this season.

DROUGHT STILL GROWING IN THE DELTA

Drought continues to be a major issue in the Delta while planting moves along quickly. A front brought through some moderate rain to northern areas on Thursday, along with severe weather. A front moving through on Saturday should carry more widespread rainfall. Despite that, it will not be enough to reduce the drought in any significant way. The forecast for next week has changed, and while a system will likely move through next week with scattered showers, it has turned much drier than the forecast from just Thursday. If it indeed is just scattered showers, the drought will get worse.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Showers continue to be isolated showers or completely non-existent through next week in much of Brazil. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall. A front may get showers into far southern Brazil early-to-mid next week, though, too. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast continues to suggest, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating into early May. When it's not raining, temperatures become very hot and stressful, too.

HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHERN ARGENTINA

A system brought heavy rain to northern Argentina earlier this week. Another front and system will slowly move through the country Sunday through early next week with more widespread precipitation. The usefulness of the rainfall continues to dwindle as even late-planted crops are maturing. Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans, but the rain may cause some delays, flooding, and quality issues.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE STILL VERY DRY

Showers have been limited this week, though most areas of Europe have good soil moisture for both winter wheat development and spring planting. The northeast is dry, however. A system and front will move through the continent Sunday into Tuesday and may get parts of Poland with some good rainfall. More systems are in line to at least provide some chances over the next several weeks.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region through next week, though they will be patchy. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter. Some cooler air will move in next week, but will not be extremely cold. Wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace and early corn planting should have largely favorable conditions.

AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

Dry weather continues to produce poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment in Australia. Though some showers will move through the southwest, very little precipitation is in the forecast through next week, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.