Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hot and dry southern U.S., a busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and a gradual turn to South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

HOT WITH AREAS OF FREQUENT RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A front remains across the northern end of the Midwest and continues to be active for the rest of the week. It should drop south through the region this weekend with some showers across the East. Another front is likely to settle across northern areas with another system developing along it to produce more rain next week. South of these fronts, temperatures will be quite warm, stressing the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but pushing other areas farther into maturity. Northern areas could see some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields as we get deeper into September.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL

It will remain hot across much of the Central and Southern Plains through next week. A front waffling around and just north of Nebraska may produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend while another front could get some showers going next week. Areas near the Rockies could also see occasional showers, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard continue to bring a concentrated burst of heavy rain to eastern Texas on Thursday. But much of the Southern Plains will be dry. This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

NEAR-DAILY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY OR MAY NOT HELP WITH DROUGHT

The pattern remains somewhat busy for this week and next with near-daily showers and thunderstorms somewhere in the Northern Plains. That may mean better rain chances, but not necessarily heavier amounts that would help to reduce drought, at least not in all areas. Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could instead affect the remaining spring wheat harvest and reduce quality for grain still out in the field.

MORE RAIN IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES COULD IMPACT HARVEST AND QUALITY

The Canadian Prairies will be the target of a couple more systems through next week, producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms and potential for more areas of heavy rain. That is unfavorable for harvest and may produce quality issues for mature grain out in the field.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DELTA CONTINUES

It will remain very hot and mostly dry for much of the Delta through next week, with a few spotty showers closer to the Gulf. That will push soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stress out any of the crop that is not yet mature, reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

BRAZIL STARTING SPRING IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SCATTERED RAIN

A front spread some isolated showers into central Brazil earlier this week, well ahead of the primary wet season, which occurs at the end of the month. Another front will sweep through the country this weekend and we could see another next week. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting, and for reproductive wheat across the south. Southern areas have seen plenty of rain over the last couple of months, which will allow for soybean planting to begin in earnest once restrictions are lifted.

ARGENTINA NEEDS SOME RAIN AND WARMTH TO START CORN PLANTING

Fronts continue to push through Argentina, but aren't bringing many showers. The south has been particularly dry. The country needs rain in the short term for winter wheat. In the longer term, rain is needed for corn and then soybean planting, but that is several weeks ahead. Not much precipitation is in the forecast despite several systems moving through. Colder air could cause areas of frost across the south yet, which is unfavorable even if wheat is still vegetative.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING

Scattered showers have been moving across northern Europe this week, and continue into the weekend. More showers will be possible across the continent with a couple of systems moving through next week. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but it is much too late to be beneficial for this year's crop. However, with winter crop planting starting up this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial for establishment.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, LIMITED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND

Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. The weather pattern is very active in Europe, which will send a front through this weekend with sweeping showers, but not a lot of heavy rain. Some areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

FEW SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA IN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN

Some southern areas of Australia may be scraped by showers over the next couple of days, but the drier El Nino pattern is likely to continue, which is unfavorable as winter wheat and canola get deeper into their reproductive stages over the next couple of weeks.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA ARE DRIER, AVOIDING TROPICAL STORMS SO FAR

Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas in China this summer, largely supporting good grain production. It should be drier through next week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete, but so far, it appears most of the active storms will stay away from the primary corn and soybean areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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