Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Some heavier rain will target the Corn Belt today, moderate rain showers move through central Argentina tomorrow, and widespread showers favor southeast Australia this weekend. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Wednesday.

HEAVY RAIN IN ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI THROUGH THURSDAY

Some slight relief to the recent heat will continue through the end of the week behind a slow-moving cold front which will eventually advance east towards the Ohio Valley by the end of the week. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry. Next week could feature warmer and drier conditions for southern areas, but storm systems could still tag the north. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling soybeans and corn.

SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAIN HOT WITH SHOWERS FAVORING THE CENTRAL PLAINS

A slow-moving front will continue to target the Central Plains, with the heaviest rain favoring southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. The Southern Plains will see spotty showers and storms later this week. By next week, a ridge will lead to a drier and warmer pattern, especially across the Southern Plains. However, storms could still edge into the Central Plains at times. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

TEMPERATURES RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK

Cooler air has arrived behind a cold front, but it won't stick around for long as temperatures start rebounding into the 90s by Thursday. Showers and storms will be spotty and light throughout the rest of the week, but some swaths of heavier rain could develop late this weekend into next week. Precipitation deficits remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

MISSISSIPPI DELTA STRUGGLING TO GET WIDESPREAD RAIN

Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Late this week, isolated showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. A similar pattern may set up for next week with only isolated showers across the region. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

SOUTHWEST CANADIAN PRAIRIES MAY SEE RAIN BY SUNDAY

Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up. Widespread showers may not return until Sunday across the southwest as most storm systems continue to favor northern and eastern areas late this week. Cooler temperatures will linger in the southern Prairies through early next week, but more heat would help the rate of growth. As showers become more hit or miss, soil moisture is dropping for some areas.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL ARGENTINA THIS WEEKEND

Showers have mainly favored northeast Argentina early this week, but a larger system could provide widespread showers to central areas Thursday. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure will build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible. There is also a slight risk for temperatures dropping near freezing next week, mainly across Buenos Aires.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN EUROPE AND BLACK SEA LATE THIS WEEK

Spotty showers are expected to target central and eastern Europe through the end of the week. Heat will continue across central and eastern areas as well. Temperatures will cool off slightly in the west and with precipitation remaining farther to the east, harvest progress could continue for wheat. Filling corn in the east could benefit from this week's rain, but for areas that get missed, above-average temperatures could cause stress.

RAIN RETURNS TO SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND

Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino while most showers early this week have favored western areas. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. Widespread, heavier showers will develop across the southeast this weekend but precipitation could become much more hit or miss next week.

TYPHOON DOLPHIN COULD HIT CENTRAL CHINA BY THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China this week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing. Typhoon Dolphin will drift west throughout the week, eventually making landfall near central China late this weekend.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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