Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt, but with lingering dryness issues across the north and south and wetness problems in Illinois and Indiana, decent finishing weather in the Canadian Prairies, and dryness problems in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MIDWEST, INCLUDING FLOODED AREAS

Drier conditions in the northern and far southern Midwest are juxtaposed with very wet conditions from Iowa to Ohio. A front moving through the region on Wednesday may produce some unneeded rain across some of the wet areas, especially in Illinois and Indiana, before bringing some more beneficial rain to the south for Thursday. Another system will move through Thursday through Saturday with more showers, and we are likely to see another system move through early-mid next week. The additional rain in some of these wet areas is not favorable, but could be more beneficial for some of these drier areas. Temperatures will stay mild through next week and may tend to go below normal on a few days.

PERIODS OF RAIN FOR CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE THIS WEEK

Scattered showers again moved across Nebraska and Kansas, but were patchy on Tuesday. Meanwhile, it continues to be extremely hot in the Southern Plains. A couple of fronts will be drifting south through the region this week and weekend, which may bring areas of showers, though northern areas are more likely to see anything significant. Temperatures will remain hot across Oklahoma and Texas regardless of the fronts, with more variable temperatures farther north. Heat will likely build into this weekend and be tough to shake next week, even if the pattern can stay as active as the forecast suggests. Therefore, conditions are likely to be variable across the north and worsening across the south.

NORTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS STILL HIT-OR-MISS

Periods of isolated showers have been moving through the Northern Plains lately, but have missed some key areas. Some locations in the eastern Dakotas have been very dry for a long time, where conditions should continue to drop even though temperatures have been cooler. There are still many chances for rain through the end of the month, but if showers do not adequately reach the eastern Dakotas, there could be more significant production drops. That is especially true as temperatures rise above normal.

LIGHTER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Several disturbances and fronts will move through the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers through next week, but with a low probability of heavy rain until maybe next weekend. That should help areas that are farther along to mature while areas that are still immature to get a little rain to fill out. Temperatures will generally be increasing this week and stay warm next week, helping the more advanced areas to continue maturing.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE DELTA

It has been too hot and dry in the Delta lately, leading to flash drought conditions. Even a front moving through early this week could barely produce a shower. Another front will move through over the next couple of days with more showers being possible this weekend, but models are not very excited about producing much rain. The heat has been unfortunate as well and even though temperatures should be falling with the fronts moving through, it will still stay largely above normal into next week, creating more stress for filling soybeans and cotton.

BREAK IN HEAT WAVE TOO LATE FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Extreme heat left Europe over the weekend as scattered showers moved through, but hot and dry conditions have been a problem all summer, especially for areas around France. Additional rounds of showers will move through with cooler weather this week, but are largely too late to provide much benefit. Southeastern areas will remain extremely hot.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region this week, but with rain targeting western areas and being limited overall anyway. Eastern areas of Ukraine and western Russia will stay largely dry as crop conditions continue to slowly fall for the end of summer, especially with temperatures becoming more stressful this week.

DRYNESS STILL AN ISSUE IN AUSTRALIA DESPITE SOME RAIN

Some disruptions to a largely drier pattern in Australia have occurred over the last couple of months, but they have not been able to turn the tide away from growing drought. That continues this week as a couple of disturbances move through with limited precipitation. Models are grabbing onto some better amounts for some eastern areas early next week, though. With winter wheat and canola getting farther along as we head toward spring, precipitation will start to become much more important, especially getting into September.

FAIR CONDITIONS FOR CHINA

The primary corn and soybean areas in China have been able to dodge flooding rains and have had largely favorable conditions over the summer. Periods of showers will continue to develop this week and next, continuing the favorable conditions for both crops as they fill.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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