Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stretch of much warmer temperatures to end the year for the U.S., and rain in much of South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

BIG STORM MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST, VERY WARM NEXT WEEK

A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures to the Midwest on Thursday, initiating some brief lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with fewer showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Warmer air is in place across the Central and Southern Plains and will continue through Christmas with little exception, and could be record high next week. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers early Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK, BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

A system is exiting the Northern Plains along the border on Thursday, but strong winds and some light snow could create some blizzard conditions in North Dakota. A quick burst of colder air is moving through as well. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through a few showers and changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada until after Christmas.

SNOWMELT IN THE MIDWEST BARELY BUDGING WATER LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

A few showers will move through the Delta on Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS BRAZIL

A front brought enhanced showers across southern Brazil earlier this week, helping to maintain soil moisture. Another front is forecast to move into the south on Sunday and may be stuck there for most of next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue, especially in Mato Grosso and Goias and farther north. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR ARGENTINA

A front brought scattered showers through Argentina earlier this week, which brought some needed rain to some areas that were starting to dry out a bit. Another front moves through this weekend with widespread rainfall. That front may stall across the far north for next week as well. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE MEDITERRANEAN

A secondary storm track has meant scattered showers across the Mediterranean earlier this week. More showers are forecast there again this weekend and next week. Some needed rainfall is forecast for Italy and parts of Spain. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat.

DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF BLACK SEA REGION

Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition in the Black Sea region. It continues to be warm and dry into next week, unfavorable for winter wheat. The next chance for significant precipitation comes around Christmas and followed by some colder air. With how warm it has been, winter hardiness may not be sufficient to survive the burst of cold as much of the region is snow-free.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture is still mixed around Australia's wheat belt. A better for scattered showers starts on Friday and then continues into the weekend, but mostly for eastern areas. Showers may continue in the northeast next week, but the rest of the country is forecast to dry out a bit again. Wheat and canola are still being harvested and will find mostly favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is well advanced and will need to see this rain come to fruition.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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