Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A pattern change to bring more heat to the Corn Belt and shift the storm track into the Upper Midwest, extensive rain in forecast for the Canadian Prairies, and heat and dryness in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

GETTING HOTTER IN THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

A system will bring heavy rain to the southern Midwest on Friday and Saturday. The front to this system will lift northward on Sunday and temperatures will be increasing. Some very hot and humid conditions are forecast for next week, which may actually be a good thing in most areas to increase growth and use up some of the excess moisture. Some areas that are drier could see some stress. Precipitation will still occur, and be more likely across the drier north, which may also be beneficial. As long as the heat breaks up in early July, this should be a favorable forecast, but models are inconsistent on that forecast.

SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BECOMING ISOLATED AS HEAT INCREASES

A system moved through the Central and Southern Plains on Thursday into early Friday with some areas of heavy rain, especially across Kansas. While a front will move into the region over the weekend, remain in the region through much of next week, and occasionally produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms, it will be largely hotter and drier next week. This is creating mixed conditions for developing summer crops while trending toward more favorable weather for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A stronger system will move into the Northern Plains this weekend and produce more widespread heavy rain and potential severe weather. Some occasional showers and storms will occur almost randomly next week along a stalled front across the east. While the rainfall is favorable, there could be some flooding. Areas west of the front will be cooler while it will get very hot east of the front. Temperatures will increase later next week and may start to become excessive into the holiday weekend.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN COMING BACK TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A larger storm system will move into the Canadian Prairies over the weekend with more widespread heavy rain chances as the system spins in the region well into next week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for the rest of the month, causing growth to be slow. Temperatures will increase after the system leaves in early July, promoting more development and using up some of the excess moisture. Despite the warm up, the showers are likely to continue in early July, overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of severe weather and flooding will be possible.

HOTTER AND DRIER FOR THE DELTA THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Scattered rainfall this week has continued to reduce long-term deficits that still remain in a lot of areas of the Delta, especially across the north. A front will keep showers going across the north on Friday and Saturday. The front lifts north after that, creating hotter and drier conditions for next week. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well. Moisture moving up from the Gulf may produce some areas of showers later next week as well, limiting the potential stress.

SOME RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will bring some showers to southern Brazil on Sunday through Tuesday and we may see some more showers later next week. Though some late-planted corn could benefit from the rain, much of the crop is heading maturing and harvest has started. The rainfall will be more beneficial for winter wheat establishment, though.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EUROPE, HEAT BREAKING NEXT WEEK

Heat continues to spread across Europe, and has been extremely hot in France where temperatures have been eclipsing 100 degrees much of this week. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops significantly. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas through the weekend, but relief from the heat won't occur until next week. Even with a front bringing through some milder air toward the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to remain above normal until late next week when more showers arrive. France may not receive much precipitation, which would further hurt summer crops.

A BIT MORE HEAT FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers have been frequent this week in Russia while it has been quieter in Ukraine. That continues through the weekend. Heat is also building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. Some warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued development of corn and maturing wheat. A front moving through later next week should bring through more widespread precipitation and milder air, more favorable for corn.

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

It has been drier in Australia this week, but a system will move through the West on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend. The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, and another system may scrape through southern areas next week. That will cover most areas with showers over the next 7 days. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. The dry effect is more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS CONTINUES IN CHINA

Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in northeast China, which continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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