Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain currently in the Central U.S., but a turn toward a drier pattern and a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THEN DRYING OUT

A front will continue to slowly move across the Midwest through Friday with widespread showers. Areas of heavy rain have already occurred in Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Missouri, which will shift southward before exiting on Friday. The heavy rain will continue to bring problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays. After the front clears the region on Friday, drier weather is in the forecast for the following couple of weeks. Fronts will still push through, and may bring some isolated showers, but overall drier conditions will help areas to drain and fieldwork to resume.

HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

A system and front have produced areas of heavy rain across much of the Central and Southern Plains this week, which continues on Thursday and exits southeast on Friday. The heavy rain will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field, and slow any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting. After this system clears the region, conditions will become much drier for the following couple of weeks, allowing fields to drain and progress to resume.

NORTHERN PLAINS RELATIVELY DRY, FAVORING HARVEST

The pattern is changing and while a few fronts will move through over the next couple of weeks, precipitation will be hard to come by in the Northern Plains. Temperatures will also trend above-normal, especially next week. The warmer and drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA LATER THIS WEEK, DROUGHT STILL BUILDING

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops. Dryness following the front will continue to exacerbate the drought conditions as well.

WET SEASON STARTING ON TIME IN BRAZIL WITH SLOW-MOVING FRONT

A front continues to slowly push northward through central Brazil throughout the rest of the week and may continue showers over the weekend as well. This slow movement is bringing widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. If the rain is not heavy enough but remains widespread, producers would still be likely to continue planting at a regular pace. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting. Despite all the rain chances and coverage from fronts, the daily pop-up type of showers have been lacking and are forecast to be more sparse through the first half of October, leaving the country reliant on continued hits from fronts, which is less reliable. If that is indeed the case, we could see dryness concerns developing if the fronts fail to make it north into central Brazil.

STILL TOO COOL IN ARGENTINA, BUT RAIN INCREASING

A system produced widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall in Argentina earlier this week. That would be beneficial, but colder air has followed in behind the system. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation, but again would be followed by a burst of cooler air. The cooler conditions have kept soil temperatures from rising, limiting producers' planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air hits continue through October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

MUCH OF EUROPE IS STILL TOO DRY FOR WINTER PLANTING AND ESTABLISHMENT

A system is pushing through western Europe this week, with the best rainfall in France and parts of Germany. The front should stall out over Spain though, and showers could continue there into the weekend. A low-pressure center developing along that front could spread more showers through Europe next week. Otherwise, only limited precipitation is expected and will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA REGION DRYING OUT AGAIN, CREATING MIXED CONDITIONS

A storm system spinning in the Black Sea has been producing a few showers for the far south, but most areas continue to be dry this week and probably next week as well. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly drier the last several weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA DURING DRIER OVERALL PATTERN

Scattered showers are moving through some eastern Australia over the next couple of days. Afterward, very little precipitation is in the forecast. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CHINA MAY DISRUPT HARVEST, FAVOR WINTER PLANTING

The weather pattern is becoming more active across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.