Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Periods of rain, some of which may be heavy, moving across the Central U.S., showers across Argentina, Europe, and Australia, and an eye on central Brazil's start to the wet season are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

WESTERN MIDWEST SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THIS WEEKEND

Temperatures remain hot in the Midwest this week and next week as well. Isolated showers over western areas will increase late this week and spread eastward this weekend into early next week before leaving. With how slow-moving the system and showers are, some areas could pick up heavy rain, which is most likely across the west. Those showers will largely be unfavorable for maturing crops and harvest, but could be beneficial for reducing drought, or at least its expansion, as well as getting some water into the Mississippi River system.

MORE RAIN, SOME HEAVY, IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Areas of showers and some heavy rain have been moving through the Central and Southern Plains with a slow-moving system over the last several days. That is pushing back the drydown of corn and soybeans. The system should push south and east out of the area this weekend. Rainfall in the Southwest is favoring planting and establishment of winter wheat.

MORE SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have been moving through the Northern Plains over the last several days. Areas of showers will continue through Friday. That will favor immature corn and soybeans, but make it too wet for some areas that are looking to mature and get harvest going.

DRYNESS LEADING TO LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER, SOME LIMITED RELIEF LATER THIS WEEK

Only spotty showers are in the forecast across the Delta for the next couple of days as recent dryness continues to cause drought to develop and water levels to lower on the Mississippi River. A system will be slow to move across the Midwest later this week into next week, which may bring some more rainfall in the region, as well as the Mississippi River system. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest is possible.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL GETTING MORE RAIN, CENTRAL STATES AWAIT START OF WET SEASON NEXT WEEK

Spring planting is underway across southern Brazil, where soil moisture conditions are favorable in which to do so. Some isolated showers will be possible across Mato Grosso, but the consistent wet season rainfall does not look to start early. A front that moves into the country this weekend and early next week could bring that necessary rainfall, but would only be a couple of days early for those in central Brazil. Producers may still wait until the rainfall becomes more consistent in October to start soybean planting there.

FAVORABLE SOIL MOISTURE IN ARGENTINA, BUT SOME COLD AIR

Soil moisture is favorable for early planting of corn and sunflowers in Argentina, but some producers may choose to wait longer to avoid frosts. Some cold air behind a stronger front early next week may keep producers waiting. Scattered showers are likely ahead of it over the next several days, with more showers for the weekend in what continues to look like a favorable start to the planting season.

RECENT RAINFALL IN EUROPE LARGELY FAVORABLE

Waves of rain have been increasing soil moisture for most of Europe over the last month, which had been favorable for filling summer crops and planting winter crops. A break would now be more favorable, which could happen for a lot of areas this week. Southern stretches including Spain, Italy, and the Southeast could use more rainfall, though. A system is forecast to move into the continent this weekend and slowly spread eastward next week, which may bring rainfall to those southern areas.

DESPITE SOME RAIN, DROUGHT STILL A CONCERN IN BLACK SEA REGION

A system that brought rainfall to western areas of the Black Sea region this weekend and early next week will continue to bring showers eastward over the next few days with increasing rainfall for very dry areas across portions of the east. That may help with winter wheat planting to some degree, but the region needs a lot more to get out of drought, and dryness is likely to follow after the system moves out.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA SEEING A PICKUP IN RAINFALL, BUT ALSO FREEZING TEMPERATURES

Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture across most areas of Australia. Another system that only scraped through western areas should provide some beneficial rainfall later this week to eastern areas. Some colder air will follow and there is a slight risk of frost, especially behind a stronger cold front this weekend for southeastern areas of the country. Should frost develop, that could be severely damaging to reproductive wheat and canola.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Conditions have been more favorable across central and northeast China for filling corn and soybeans over the last several weeks. Those with corn and soybeans in the northeast would likely favor some drier weather while those in central China would like showers to continue as they plant winter wheat and canola. Most areas will get what they need this week with showers across central areas and drier conditions in the northeast. That largely continues into next week as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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