Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system producing widespread precipitation for the Corn Belt and another heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

LATE WEEK RAIN, MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

A front has stalled in Missouri and will have potential to produce some showers on Wednesday. A system will move through the Midwest Thursday through Saturday and stands the best chance at producing widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as bring in some milder air to the whole region. In addition, another cold front will move into the region and stall next week, which will be a factor in producing more areas of showers and bring some mild temperatures. Depending on where that front stalls, some areas will see improving conditions, but areas to the south of the front are likely to return to hotter and drier conditions that could be worse. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and need more rain and milder temperatures to stabilize during the most important time for filling corn and soybeans heading into August.

HOT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front has stalled in the Central Plains and will bring some areas of showers through Thursday. But if it doesn't rain, it will remain hot. Cooler air will move through behind a system for Friday into the weekend, but will be brief with rising temperatures next week. A front should stall out in the Central Plains again next week, which may bring some milder temperatures and showers there while southern areas get hot and dry again.

BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, COOLER NEXT WEEK

High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal in the Northern Plains for this summer, causing stress to all crops. After some relief with a system moving through on Thursday with widespread rain across the Dakotas, it will remain hot into Monday. Another cold front will then move south into the region and stall to the south, bringing in some milder air and a couple of chances for rain. If the rain is widespread on Thursday, it will be highly beneficial. But if it remains more isolated, there will be more stress for reproductive to filling crops.

SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING STRESS ON EDGE OF HEAT

Though it has been hotter and drier in the Canadian Prairies over the last couple of weeks, that should have little impact on crop conditions as it should have allowed for enhanced growth and fill while most areas have had good soil moisture. Areas in the southwest may be too hot and dry, though, where stress is most likely to show up. The region remains on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers and above-normal temperatures. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but may not bring much precipitation with it.

FRONT STALLING IN THE DELTA WITH SHOWERS

A front will stall in the Delta on Wednesday and produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Any rainfall will be welcomed in the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans. Temperatures are forecast to increase next week and may cause more stress.

YET ANOTHER HEAT WAVE BUILDING ACROSS EUROPE

Yet another heat wave is developing across Europe this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for better areas in the east. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week, when a front moving through should bring temperatures down and may come with some helpful rain.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION, THEN BUILDING HEAT

Another system is moving through the Black Sea region through Thursday with more widespread showers and overall good conditions for the region. However, afterward, heat is forecast to fill into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the south.

SLOWLY DRYING OUT IN AUSTRALIA

Though some showers may scrape across southern Australia this week, drier conditions are becoming more common now with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west may be a break in the pattern next week, bringing through some scattered showers, but the drier pattern remains.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA, HEAT NOT CONCERNING RIGHT NOW

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China into next week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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