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Commodities Market Impact Weather

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Cold Wave Impact

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OMAHA (DTN) -- The impact of a strong Arctic cold wave over the central United States and only light rain ahead for Black Sea wheat areas are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MIDWEST STORMS AND COLD

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a stormy Midwest pattern through the next five days along with notably lower temperatures. Snow and rain in the northern and western Midwest earlier this week are already disrupting harvest. Rain moves into the eastern Midwest Friday and Saturday. The entire region is in line for much colder conditions through the end of October. The colder pattern will be unfavorable for field and crop drying and will delay harvest efforts. The pattern turns notably warmer and drier in the seven-to-10-day period.

BITTER COLD FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Bitter cold conditions are indicated for the Southern Plains during the next five days. The cold pattern may be stressful to early developing winter wheat. The cold threat is enhanced by very dry conditions in the region. More than half of the wheat acreage in Kansas is now in drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely in southeastern portions of the region, with limited benefit in primary wheat areas.

HARSH COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas have very cold conditions ahead through the next five days along with periods of snow. This combination will disrupt harvest and will be stressful to livestock. Overnight low temperatures during this time frame are set to plummet into the single digits Fahrenheit with below zero wind chill indexes.

WET PATTERN FOR DELTA

Delta crop areas have moderate to locally heavy rain indicated during the next week. This rain will delay cotton harvest and may be unfavorable for cotton quality.

ONGOING BRAZIL RAIN PROSPECT

Moderate to heavy rain is widely in store for primary crop areas of Brazil over the next week. This is a favorable forecast for soil moisture to support soybean planting and early development. The rainy season in central Brazil has begun much later than the 30-year average starting date of Sept. 26.

RAIN FOR ARGENTINA RAIN

Central Argentina continues with favorable chances for moderate rain during the next week. This will be favorable for row crop soil moisture. Corn planting is running behind average due to dry conditions delaying the start of field work. Wheat production is expected to decline compared with a year ago because of very dry conditions earlier this season.

LIGHT RUSSIA RAIN

Russia wheat areas have mainly light rain in the seven-day forecast. Wheat crop moisture benefit will be minimal due to the late arrival of this moisture. The entire Black Sea region is in rainfall deficits of 80 to 90% below normal during the past 60 days.

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Eastern Australia wheat areas continue with a forecast of moderate to heavy rain during the next seven days. Rain of this quantity may damage ripening wheat. Adverse effect on wheat would be disappointing due to expectation of the largest Australia wheat crop in four years.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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This is not presented as a commodity trading recommendation. Weather is only one of many factors which can influence the market on any given day.

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