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Commodities Market Impact Weather

Updated

Heat Peaking for Corn Belt Tuesday and Wednesday

DTN Weather Week In Review
Weather Week In Review
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MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat across the United States and flooding concerns for China are the weather factors holding the market's attention Tuesday.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers will continue near the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, including drought areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which will be beneficial. Temperatures will be hot, especially west, with highs into the 90s before a system moves through on Wednesday and Thursday that will bring more widespread showers. Another round of beneficial rain will come through this weekend, and may get most of Iowa with timely rains. It could give more heavy rain to saturated soils in Missouri and Illinois, however.

SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT AND MOSTLY DRY

Scattered showers moved through the Southern Plains this weekend and Monday, causing some delays to the final stages of winter wheat harvest. While most areas saw only light rainfall, there was a strip of heavy rain along the Nebraska/Kansas border that produced some flooding. Scattered showers helped some areas, but the region needs more moisture for reproductive corn and soybeans. Overall light showers will not be much of a benefit. Hot temperatures near 100 degrees Fahrenheit will help dry soils as well, leading to some stress. There is a good chance for helpful rain coming Friday and Saturday to Nebraska, but it is questionable whether or not Kansas will get much rainfall.

HEAT CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved across the Dakotas this weekend and Monday but were not particularly heavy or widespread. Isolated showers may continue through the week, but no significant showers are forecast until a system moves across the south Friday into Saturday. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible in South Dakota in this time frame but the rest of the region could stay dry until a system moves through in the middle of next week. Heat near or eclipsing 100 F will continue through Wednesday before a weak front pushes temperatures back down toward 90 F for the rest of the week. Even with the potential rainfall, the heat will be a significant issue for reproductive corn and soybeans and livestock.

FAVORABLE DELTA GROWING CONDITIONS

Isolated showers moved through the Delta during the past few days and will continue through Wednesday. More rainfall is expected with a weak front moving through on Friday, and another system coming through over the weekend. Conditions remain mostly favorable for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

NEAR-DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

In the Southeast, near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HOT AND DRY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies were dry during the past several days with temperatures nearing 90 F across the south. The combination continues to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola. Limited rainfall chances and temperatures mostly above normal will continue to be unfavorable for the next week.

MORE FROSTS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front will continue to bring showers across southern Brazil through Wednesday, but also with falling temperatures. Another round of frost will be possible Wednesday through Friday mornings. It is getting too late for much of the rain to have any benefit and luckily for producers, too late for much of the corn crop to be affected either as crops race toward maturity. Winter wheat will not enjoy the below-normal temperatures, but damage is not expected to occur.

EAST-WEST DIFFERENCES IN THE BLACK SEA

Very little rainfall occurred in Ukraine and western Russia during the weekend but temperatures were closer to normal. Systems will continue to pulse through Europe, which will bring periods of showers through Ukraine and northwest Russia during the course of the next week, but it will be likely to miss southwest Russia and the Volga Valley, areas that could use more moisture as temperatures go back above normal.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON IN-FA FLOOD CHINA

Typhoon In-Fa has weakened significantly since coming ashore in central China but still contains tropical rainfall. The system is forecast to move further inland and then across northeast areas this week and weekend. This could mean flooding rains for corn and soybean areas, but there is some uncertainty with the track and intensity of showers, especially after Thursday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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Market Weather Factors

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This is not presented as a commodity trading recommendation. Weather is only one of many factors which can influence the market on any given day.

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