Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Some minor disruptions to harvest in the short term and a larger disruption next week for the U.S., increasing rain in central Brazil, and a return of chilly temperatures in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SEVERAL SYSTEMS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL FOR THE MIDWEST UNTIL NEXT WEEK

It continues to be warm and mostly dry in the Midwest, though a front moving through Wednesday and Thursday will bring some scattered showers to the north. Part of the front will hang up across the region for Friday into the weekend, and some showers are forecast to continue across Iowa and Illinois. That could be enough to locally slow down harvest progress. But it will be a much bigger system next week that will likely cause a lot more disruption to fieldwork as it brings through widespread and potentially heavy rainfall.

MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO FIELDWORK IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BIGGER STORM NEXT WEEK

After a couple of dry days, some tropical moisture will move into the Southern Plains on Thursday night and spread through much of the Central Plains through the weekend, but will become disorganized as it does so. A much more organized system will move through early next week with widespread precipitation which may include some heavy rain and severe weather. Though disruption to fieldwork looks likely, the system could bring about some better precipitation to combat the ongoing drought and improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

LIMITED AREAS OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Some showers moved through the Northern Plains earlier this week. A few more isolated showers will be possible on Wednesday. Though there might have been some disruption to fieldwork, there have been some other areas that have stayed relatively dry. There may be some more showers this weekend into early next week that could cause some more disruption as well, but those are uncertain right now.

DROUGHT CONTINUES TO GROW IN DELTA, MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS FALLING

Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the Delta, but are allowing fieldwork to finish up. However, water levels on the Mississippi River are falling and could be a concern in November if the dryness continues. Some showers will likely go through this weekend, but would be mostly light. A system is likely to push through the region next week and could bring some heavier rain, though that is uncertain and may not be enough to turn around the building dryness. It may be widespread enough to help out on the Mississippi River, though.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has stalled in central Brazil, which will produce some decent coverage of showers throughout the rest of the week. That is sorely needed for soybean planting and crop establishment, even if rainfall amounts are only near normal for this time of year. Southern areas will be much drier, which is also beneficial as they have been too wet in many areas.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA, COOL AGAIN NEXT WEEK

Some spotty showers will occur in Argentina throughout the rest of the week, maintaining mostly good soil moisture throughout the country. Temperatures have been cold, but are rising toward normal for the rest of the week. Recent cold temperatures have been causing growth to be slow for winter wheat and corn. However, another system moving through early next week could lead to more cold air moving in. With soybean planting starting up in November, producers could push back planting a bit if it remains too chilly.

SHOWERS NEAR MEDITERRANEAN SEA, BUT DRIER IN MUCH OF EUROPE THIS WEEK

Widespread showers moved across Europe last week and over the weekend, though Spain saw dry conditions, which has been too common this fall. Some isolated showers will move through this week, but it should be much drier. A system building over the eastern Mediterranean could help to bring some rain to Italy and southeastern Europe this weekend into next week, but much of the continent will remain drier.

WESTERN RUSSIA NEEDS RAIN FOR WINTER WHEAT

Some spotty showers remain possible in Ukraine, but western Russia looks to remain drier. Soil moisture is favorable in Ukraine, but not farther east, which is concerning for winter wheat establishment in Russia.

SOME RECENT FAVORABLE RAIN FOR PARTS OF AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved through the eastern half of Australia over the weekend, but ended the run of heavy rain in Queensland, which has seen beneficial rainfall lately. Showers are mostly falling over the Outback over the next couple of days, but a system could bring some showers to eastern areas Friday through the weekend. Any rain would be beneficial for filling winter wheat and canola, though benefits are going to be limited as the crop continues to mature. Harvest may start soon in some areas.

FAVORABLE HARVEST WEATHER IN CHINA

Conditions have been favorable in central and northeast China for corn and soybean harvest for quite some time. Winter wheat and canola in south-central China would benefit from more rain, which is forecast to occur this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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