Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Some minor disruptions to harvest in the short term and a larger disruption next week for the U.S., increasing rain in central Brazil, and a return of chilly temperatures next week in Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets on Thursday.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST UNTIL NEXT WEEK

A front went through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and continues east on Thursday, bringing scattered showers to the north. Part of the front will hang up across the region for Friday into the weekend, and some showers are forecast to continue as well. That could be enough to locally slow down harvest progress. But it will be a much bigger system next week that will likely cause a lot more disruption to fieldwork as it brings through widespread and potentially heavy rainfall, strong winds, and the potential for severe weather.

TROPICAL MOISTURE, BIG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Some tropical moisture will move into the Southern Plains Thursday night and spread through much of the region over the weekend, but will become disorganized as it does. A much more organized system will move through early next week with widespread precipitation which may include some strong winds, heavy rain, and severe weather. Though disruption to fieldwork looks likely, the system could bring about some better precipitation to combat the ongoing drought and improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

LIMITED AREAS OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A couple of dry days are expected in the Northern Plains before some isolated showers move back into the region for the weekend. A system moving through early next week is likely to bring heavier precipitation and may include some strong winds. This may cause more of a disruption to fieldwork than what we saw over the last week.

DROUGHT GROWING IN DELTA, BUT RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK

Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the Delta, but are allowing fieldwork to finish up. However, water levels on the Mississippi River are falling and could be a concern in November if the dryness continues. Some showers will likely go through this weekend, but would be mostly light. A system is likely to push through the region next week and could bring some heavier rain, though that is uncertain and may not be enough to turn around the building dryness. It may be widespread enough to help out on the Mississippi River, though.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front has stalled in central Brazil, which is producing some decent coverage of showers through at least the weekend. That is sorely needed for soybean planting and establishment, even if rainfall amounts are only near normal for this time of year. Southern areas will be much drier, which is also beneficial as they have been too wet in many areas.

CONTINUED SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA, COOL AGAIN NEXT WEEK

Some spotty showers will occur in Argentina through the weekend, maintaining mostly good soil moisture throughout the country. Temperatures have been cold, but are rising toward normal for the rest of the week. However, another system moving through early next week could lead to more cold air moving in. The recent cold has been causing growth to be slow for winter wheat and corn. With soybean planting starting up in November, producers could push back planting a bit if it remains too chilly.

SHOWERS NEAR MEDITERRANEAN SEA, BUT DRIER IN MUCH OF EUROPE

Some isolated showers have been moving through Europe this week, but it has been much drier after last week's good rainfall outside of Spain, which has been drier. A system building over the eastern Mediterranean could help to bring some rain to Italy and southeastern Europe this weekend into next week, but much of the continent will remain drier.

WESTERN RUSSIA NEEDS RAIN FOR WINTER WHEAT

Some spotty showers remain possible in Ukraine, but western Russia looks to remain drier into early next week. Soil moisture is favorable in Ukraine, but not farther east, which is concerning for winter wheat establishment in Russia. The next chance for a system to move through with widespread rain comes at the second half of next week. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall going into November.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EASTERN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND

A system could bring some showers to eastern Australia Friday through the weekend. Any rain would be beneficial for filling winter wheat and canola, though benefits are going to be limited as the crop continues to mature. Harvest may start soon in some areas.

FAVORABLE HARVEST WEATHER IN CHINA

Conditions have been favorable in central and northeast China for corn and soybean harvest for quite some time. Winter wheat and canola in south-central China would benefit from more rain, which is forecast to occur this weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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