Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a heatwave for the U.S. but limited rainfall with it, overall good growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and a recent and extended heatwave in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

END OF HEAT WAVE FOR MIDWEST BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS

Eastern areas of the Midwest saw a system bring scattered showers and thunderstorms as well as some milder temperatures on Friday and Saturday while western areas stayed warmer with mostly dry conditions. It continues to be hot on Monday, but a front moving through into Tuesday will help to bring temperatures down significantly while producing some areas of showers. Eastern areas again look to be favored for anything widespread. However, the front will get hung up in the southwest where we could see some showers and thunderstorms later this week. Though temperatures are coming down this week, areas that are drier in the west that do not see much precipitation could still have issues, especially for reproductive corn and soybeans.

FRONT STALLING IN CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEK

Heat built up across the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and continues to be extremely hot on Monday before a cold front moves into the region with milder air across the north. The front will stall out in the Central Plains, being a focal point for a couple of periods of showers and thunderstorms later this week. Some of those may be severe with heavy rain. Southern areas are likely to stay hotter and drier, a poor combination for any dryland crops and stressful for livestock. Temperatures will likely rise this weekend, causing more stresses.

HEATWAVE ENDING IN NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT ONLY BRIEFLY

More heat developed in the Northern Plains over the weekend, but a cold front moving through on Monday will bring in much more mild temperatures for several days while Montana will heat up. Some showers may move through this week, but most areas will stay dry, unfavorable for developing crops even though the heat has relented. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some decent rain. But overall, below normal rainfall is expected while heat will spread through this weekend into next week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing to reproductive crops.

WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some heat developed in the Canadian Prairies over the weekend while showers went mostly through northern areas. A system moving through on Monday will bring down temperatures slightly, but temperatures will rise again toward the second half of the week. Several systems will likely move through the region this weekend and next week, though, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a favorable combination for most areas that had been too wet and cool for much of the season so far.

SOMEWHAT HOTTER, DRIER IN DELTA

It became fairly dry in the Delta over the weekend while temperatures rose. Heat will continue to be in the area the next couple of days before a front drops south into the region on Wednesday with some limited showers and a relief from the excessive heat. However, with the front stalling in the area, temperatures will still be excessive in the south. A tropical depression developing off the coast of Florida could bring some showers to southern areas to mitigate some of that heat midweek, but is unlikely to bring a large area of heavy precipitation that would be preferred. With conditions getting hotter and drier, more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans should be developing.

RELIEF FOR EUROPEAN HEATWAVE

A system moved through eastern Europe over the weekend, bringing milder temperatures and scattered showers. However, areas in the west will get hot again this week while showers continue to be very limited. That continues to be poor for reproductive corn in France, which has seen crop conditions plummet over the last several weeks. Occasional showers and milder temperatures are forecast across the east, favorable for developing to reproductive crops there.

SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEK

A system moved into Ukraine with scattered showers over the weekend. That system will be slow to move east this week, but should spread some showers into Russia by the end of the week, continuing into the weekend. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing to reproductive corn and winter wheat harvest with some exceptions. A drier and warmer forecast for next week could start to produce more stresses in the region.

STARTING TO GET DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

Some showers went through western Australia over the weekend, but most areas of the country stayed dry. Some spotty showers may be possible, but drier weather is starting to become more common for the country as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA

Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue this week, being mostly favorable for both crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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