Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hot and dry southern U.S., a busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., recent and continued heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and a gradual turn to South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER STORM NEXT WEEK

A front has been active across the northern end of the Midwest this week and remains so on Friday. It should drop south through the region this weekend with some showers across the east. A system moving across Canada is likely to bring another cold front through the region early to mid next week with some chances for additional showers and another front that may not make it all the way through the region before stalling out. Some cooler air is likely to move in north of the front, but it should remain hot south of it. The hot temperatures and lack of rain across the south will stress the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but push other areas further into maturity. Northern areas may be seeing some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields as we get deeper into September.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL

It will remain hot across much of the Central and Southern Plains through next week. Some showers have developed at times across the north and west, but have been rather spotty and weak for most of the week. It is likely that those types of showers continue into next week. This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

MORE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY OR MAY NOT HELP WITH DROUGHT

Scattered showers, some areas of heavy rain, and severe weather have occurred in the Northern Plains this week. Spotty improvement to soil moisture and drought conditions has occurred, but has not been widespread. The pattern remains somewhat busy through next week with near-daily showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday and some additional showers likely beyond that. Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could instead impact the remaining spring wheat harvest and reduce quality for grain still out in the field.

MORE RAIN IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES COULD IMPACT HARVEST AND QUALITY

The Canadian Prairies will be the target of a couple more systems through next week, producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms and potential for more areas of heavy rain. That is unfavorable for harvest and may produce quality issues for mature grain out in the field.

HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DELTA CONTINUES

It will remain very hot and mostly dry for much of the Delta through next week, with a few spotty showers closer to the Gulf. That will push soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stress out any of the crop that is not yet mature, reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

SPRING PLANTING IN BRAZIL STARTING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

A front spread some isolated showers into central Brazil earlier this week, well ahead of the primary wet season, which occurs at the end of the month. Another front will sweep through the country this weekend and we could see another later next week. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting, as well as for reproductive wheat across the south. Southern areas have seen plenty of rain over the last couple of months, which will allow for soybean planting to begin in earnest once restrictions are lifted.

ARGENTINA NEEDS SOME RAIN AND WARMTH TO START CORN PLANTING

Fronts continue to push through Argentina, but aren't bringing many showers. The south has been particularly dry. The country needs rain in the short term for winter wheat. In the longer term, rain is needed for corn and then soybean planting, but that is several weeks ahead. Not much precipitation is in the forecast despite several systems moving through. Colder air could cause areas of frost across the south yet, which is unfavorable even if wheat is still vegetative.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING

Scattered showers have been moving across northern Europe this week, and continue into the weekend. More showers will be possible across the continent with a couple of systems moving through next week. That should help to moisten soils across southern areas that have been drier lately, too. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but it is much too late to be beneficial for this year's crop and may affect harvest to some degree. However, with winter crop planting starting up this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial for establishment.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, LIMITED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND

Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. A front will sweep through this weekend with areas of showers, but not a lot of heavy rain. Some areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable. Next week looks to be drier as well.

FEW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA IN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN

Some southern areas of Australia have been scraped by showers this week. But the drier El Nino pattern is likely to continue, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola get deeper into their reproductive stages over the next couple of weeks.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA ARE DRIER, AVOIDING TROPICAL STORMS

Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas in China this summer, largely supporting good grain production. Though a few showers may go through, it should be drier through next week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete. But so far, it appears the active storms will stay away from the primary corn and soybean areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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