Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will be heavy with areas of severe weather, particularly across the Corn Belt, recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and few other global weather issues are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

Rounds of heavy rain and severe weather have been frequent since the weekend, resulting in a boost in soil moisture, but also some flooding and storm damage. The pattern remains very busy for the Midwest through next week. Some areas will inevitably be missed, and some are also going to get hit too often, which will result in some more flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Warm temperatures early this week will become much more mild by the weekend with below-normal temperatures for much of next week.

CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Multiple systems continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains this week with areas of showers and thunderstorms. Though there will be showers around this week, the potential for a lot of heavy rain in the primary wheat growing areas is somewhat low until the weekend, which may give a few good days for doing fieldwork. A system early next week may result in more widespread and heavier precipitation, but models have relaxed on their extremely busy pattern for next week with only occasional showers after Tuesday. Temperatures will decrease late in the week and go below normal starting on Sunday, which will be more likely for next week as well. The combination of mild temperatures and somewhat frequent rain should be good for developing corn and soybeans but may make it difficult for harvest and reduce quality for wheat.

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across the Northern Plains on Tuesday with areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Additional periods of showers will move through the region through next week, but at a less rapid pace. Cooler temperatures have moved into the region and will stick around well into next week before rising. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers and severe weather have been moving through the Canadian Prairies since the weekend. An upper-level trough moving into the region will continue periods of rainfall for the rest of this week and next week as well, but the frequency of rainfall will be lower than areas to the south. Though there may be some damage, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. However, planting progress remains behind the average progress in all three provinces and the continued rainfall will make it more difficult to finish up.

FRONTS TO STALL IN THE DELTA

A front will move into the Delta on Friday and stall through the weekend. That will probably happen again with another on Sunday into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, maintaining fairly high soil moisture and continuing to reduce the long-term drought. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN BRAZIL

A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through the weekend. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EUROPE

Systems continue to move through Europe this week with more widespread precipitation and some areas of heavier rain. Some areas across France may not get much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent.

SHOWERY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST

Spotty showers are expected for the next couple of days before a system starts moving into the western Black Sea region on Friday with more widespread and heavier rain for the weekend that will spread east next week. Rainfall has been rather frequent this spring and now into the summer. That is keeping soil moisture high, but may be reducing quality for some winter wheat as areas in the south head toward maturity. The wet weather has also been tough to complete corn planting.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

Many areas in Australia have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. A couple of systems are bringing through scattered showers this week, especially to the west. At least one more system will be possible next week as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Overall favorable conditions continue in central and northeast China for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas have seen some rain, but drier conditions occurred for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast into next week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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