Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Cooler air in the Corn Belt now but more heat moving in this weekend with limited rainfall, overall good growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and another upcoming heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TEMPERATURES RISING FOR THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIMITED RAINFALL

Cool and dry air has been relieving stresses for plants and livestock in the Midwest over the last couple of days, but soils remain rather dry after last week's heat wave. Temperatures rise again this weekend. Another front moving through early next week could bring through another round of milder air along with some areas of showers, but will favor the east with rainfall. Overall, many areas are going to stay dry or see limited precipitation, unfavorable for pollinating to filling corn and pod-setting soybeans.

STALLED FRONT IN CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN

A stalled cold front is producing periods of showers and thunderstorms in the Central Plains through Friday. Some of those may produce heavy rain. Areas south of the front remain hotter and drier, a poor combination for any dryland crops and stressful for livestock. Temperatures will rise this weekend, causing more stresses as above-normal temperatures continue for much of next week. We will be watching to see if a cold front can come down mid or late next week with more showers and some milder air, or if that front will bypass the region.

TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WEEKEND

Temperatures will rise in Montana on Friday and be excessive. The heat will spread eastward through the Northern Plains this weekend. Some showers may have been moving through South Dakota this week, but most areas have been dry, unfavorable for developing crops even though the heat has relented. A system moving through Canada this weekend should drag another front through the region that may produce some showers and we could see some spotty areas of showers next week. But overall, below normal rainfall is expected while above-normal temperatures continue into next week despite the front. That is a poor combination for developing to reproductive crops.

WARMER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Temperatures are rising from west to east in the Canadian Prairies over the next couple of days and will stay largely above normal through next week. Several systems will likely move through the region through next week, bringing occasional showers to go along with warmer temperatures. This should be a mostly favorable combination after a cool and wet season thus far, but some areas in the southwest are likely to be too warm and dry and will see stress developing.

HIGHER TEMPERATURES, LITTLE RAINFALL UNFAVORABLE IN THE DELTA

Though a front dropped into the Delta on Wednesday and Tropical Storm Bertha moved across southern Louisiana, it was very dry on Wednesday. Some spotty showers will be possible over the next few days, but it will generally be dry with rising temperatures this weekend. Another front may bring through some milder air again in the middle of next week, but is forecast to stay mostly dry. The largely hotter and drier forecast will mean more stresses for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

ANOTHER HEAT WAVE FORECAST FOR EUROPE NEXT WEEK

Eastern areas of Europe continue to see scattered showers and mild air the next couple of days. A system should spread showers across the continent on Sunday and Monday. Yet another heat wave will spread across Europe next week, creating more damage to western areas that continue to be drier. Eastern areas will start to see stresses developing again after some rather favorable weather over the last week.

SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION THIS WEEKEND

A system that brought widespread showers to Ukraine this week is finally getting into western Russia with several impulses moving through the weekend with scattered showers. Another system will move through early next week with more showers. Conditions are still largely favorable for developing to reproductive corn with some exceptions. A drier and warmer forecast developing next week could start to produce more stresses for corn in the region going into pollination and grain fill.

SLOWLY DRYING OUT IN AUSTRALIA

Some spotty showers may be possible this week and next, but drier weather is starting to become more common for Australia as El Nino starts to really settle in with a drier forecast for winter crops that are still vegetative. Should this continue, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA

Some areas across central China have had some heavy rain recently, but flooding has occurred in areas largely outside of corn and soybean acres. Scattered showers will continue to be fairly widespread through next week, being mostly favorable for both crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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