Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent drought-reducing rainfall across the southern U.S., warmer temperatures this week and a wetter pattern ahead, colder temperatures in northern Europe, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SHOWERS AND RISING TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Though areas near the Great Lakes may be chilly on Thursday morning, the risk for frost in the Midwest has essentially ended for the year. A front will be active as it moves into the region and settles Thursday through Saturday. A system will form along that front and push through the region Sunday through Tuesday. Models have increased their precipitation with the system, lingering it longer into next week. While the next few days should see plenty of fieldwork get done, the coming system will likely cause some delays, but continue to support good soil moisture for most areas.

SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THIS WEEKEND

Recent precipitation has produced a small boost in soil moisture for the Central and Southern Plains, but does not erase the large deficits over the last several months. Systems moving through the Northern Plains will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Thursday that could have some at least widely scattered coverage going into next week. Above-normal temperatures will be in place through at least the weekend, which adds stress to dry wheat areas, and may continue to reduce soil moisture for those areas that continually miss out on the rainfall. Temperatures have trended colder for early next week, easing heat stress.

WARMER, THEN COLDER WITH SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures are higher in the Northern Plains this week and multiple systems moving through the region or north in Canada will bring through periods of scattered showers through next week. Coverage does not look very extensive outside of this weekend, but the opportunities are numerous, probably through the end of the month. That should give enough room to do plenty of field work and get some rain at times as well, overall, a favorable situation for the region that is having some issues with drought. Temperatures have trended colder for early next week, which may produce some frosts for a couple of mornings, however.

SHOWERY, COLDER AGAIN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Warmer temperatures in the Canadian Prairies this week should allow for a lot of fieldwork to occur. However, a system moving through late Wednesday through Friday will bring widespread precipitation and be followed by a burst of cold air that will bring in frosts and freezes into early next week. That is unlikely to cause any damage to crops as very little of the newly planted crop is vulnerable, but does not help with emergence or additional planting progress. Showers are likely to continue in the colder air next week, which supports building soil moisture for the crop, however.

DRIER IN THE DELTA THIS WEEK, WETTER NEXT WEEK

Soil moisture is much improved in the Delta from a couple of weeks ago, but rainfall deficits are still large across much of the region. Drier weather continues through the weekend, but a front moving in this weekend, and slowly moving through early next week should bring through several rounds of good rainfall that should continue to increase moisture and relieve drought.

MORE RAIN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Wheat planting should increase throughout the month across southern Brazil and will depend on fronts moving up from Argentina for good soil moisture. Another front is forecast to bring some rain to the south this weekend and may get a few showers into central areas as well. Any rainfall will be beneficial, but most of the safrinha corn areas have already gone a month without rain and will need a lot of rain to make a difference. Only the far south has a chance at heavier rainfall.

COLD TEMPERATURES SINKING INTO NORTHERN EUROPE WITH SHOWERS

A system has spread showers across Europe this week. More showers are expected to over the next few days as an upper-level system stalls out over the continent. That will get some needed precipitation into the drier northeast, but may produce some patchy frost across the north for the next few days as well. Many winter wheat areas would be vulnerable should frosts occur.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

An upper-level low-pressure system settling over Europe is bringing through waves of showers to the Black Sea region possibly into next week, increasing moisture for wheat and corn. Most areas will welcome the rainfall as soil moisture has been improving this spring. But the showers may slow down corn planting.

SHOWERS IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA THIS WEEKEND AMONGST DRIER PATTERN

Rainfall deficits are still large and conditions are still dry for much of Australia's wheat belt. Drier weather continues through for the next couple of days, with chances for showers in eastern areas this weekend into early next week. Though the showers will be helpful for increasing soil moisture a bit, the developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with fewer storm systems, creating poor weather conditions for winter wheat and canola.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

The North China Plain and the northeast have been quieter this spring, a pattern that continues for the rest of this week. That may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of either or winter wheat. Showers may increase this weekend into early next week with a system passing through. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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