Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A significant heat wave developing across the northern U.S. with limited rainfall during and after, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEAT BUILDING SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY

A front and system pushed through the southern Midwest over the weekend with scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain across the south. Across the north, temperatures rose significantly and will be incredibly warm this week, challenging record highs in some areas. Lots of 90-degree highs will be found from Minnesota to Michigan for several days. Models are still trying to get a front to drop south into the region on Wednesday or Thursday, which would limit the heat across eastern areas and bring some limited showers. Some models keep that front north in Canada and expand the heat to more areas of the region. There is no clear trend, but northern areas will likely suffer anyway. A front will come through this weekend which will put an end to the heat and likely bring some relieving showers as well. How widespread that rain is and what follows next week will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as more of it gets into pollination.

SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS, NORTH GETTING HOTTER

A front drifted south through the Southern Plains over the weekend and continues showers and thunderstorms there through at least Wednesday and possibly through the end of the week. That will help to keep temperatures down while the Central Plains bake in a summer heat wave. The heat will reduce soil moisture significantly while rapidly increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heat wave could reverse that quickly in some areas.

EXTREME HEAT WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A major heat wave developed in the Northern Plains over the weekend, sending temperatures way above normal and making for some new high temperature records. The heat will be stuck around through much of the week before a front moves through with relief on Friday and Saturday. Additional temperature records may be broken, soil moisture will evaporate quickly, and damage to developing crops and forages looks likely. Even with the heat wave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME HEAT FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

An extensive heat wave started over the weekend as temperatures rose into the 90s across the eastern half of the Canadian Prairies. Most of the significant heat will remain south of the border though, as a front moves through on Monday with milder temperatures settling in for the rest of the week. Some limited heat may make its way into the west later this week ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELTA, LIMITING HEAT

A front settled into the Delta over the weekend and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Those continue through at least Wednesday and possibly longer, keeping temperatures more seasonable for this week. With a front clearing through this weekend and early next week, conditions remain overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

DAMAGING HEAT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE SPREADS EASTWARD THIS WEEK

It continued to be hot and dry in western Europe over the weekend, though some spotty showers found their way into France. Heat will try to move eastward this week, but models have retreated from this position, and more summer heat instead of extreme heat is forecast. A system in the Atlantic may produce some spotty showers across the west this week, but will get more widespread rain into the continent Thursday through Saturday as it finally moves east. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain hot in western Europe even through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system spread showers across the Black Sea region this weekend, though many areas saw only light amounts. Systems are forecast to frequently spin through the region this week and next, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall. Temperatures will be mild, but some heat would be preferred after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

STILL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers went through southeastern Australia over the weekend. Some isolated showers may scrape through far southeastern areas this week, but conditions should be drier overall across the east. Across the west, a front will move in midweek and continue showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, but has yet to really accomplish that task. Still, some damage may occur during a more vulnerable period in August through September.

CHINA DEALING WITH REMNANTS OF TYPHOON BAVI, SOME FLOODING

Typhoon Bavi hit the Central China coast this weekend, bringing heavy rain to some limited crop areas. The remnant low will move north into the North China Plain for Monday with some heavy rain extending into northeast areas as well. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through this week though, and the repeated hits could be a little troublesome for flooding. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across a lot of the corn and soybean areas.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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