Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A system moving through the U.S. with widespread rain that should pause fieldwork, below-normal rainfall in central Brazil, and heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

BIG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend, but were generally light outside of Iowa and Illinois. However, a bigger system will move through in a couple of different waves throughout the week. Most of the precipitation will fall through Wednesday. Despite some delays to fieldwork, soil moisture should improve for some areas that grow winter wheat, and should help with the drought in some areas of the region.

SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moving through the Central and Southern Plains on Monday is producing organized showers and thunderstorms. Some showers may linger into Tuesday, and a very small system may bring showers to some areas on Thursday, but it will be drier for the rest of the week after the system passes through. The precipitation will slow down fieldwork progress, but is helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat, and may help to reduce drought across the south.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME DISRUPTION

A system is spreading rain showers across the Northern Plains through early Tuesday before pushing eastward. Though some showers may also go through on Saturday, it will likely be dry after Tuesday, leaving most areas in good shape to continue what remains of fieldwork.

DESPITE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DELTA, DRYNESS CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN

Scattered showers moved through the Delta over the weekend and resulted in a couple of pockets of heavier rain, but water levels continue to be fairly low on the Mississippi River. However, a front that moves through on Tuesday night should bring more widespread precipitation not only into the region, but also across the Midwest, which should help with water levels on the Mississippi to at least some degree. The overall El Nino pattern that is unfolding should be beneficial to the region over the next several months as well.

BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL CONTINUES IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers fell across central Brazil over the weekend, but not at the coverage or intensity that producers would prefer to see at this time of year. Monsoon showers should be picking up, but have yet to really do so. Much of the rain that has fallen over the last 6-8 weeks has come via fronts moving through the country. That has led to heavy rainfall across the south, but weakening rainfall across the central, and soil moisture is on the low side for early soybean growth. Overall, fronts are still expected to produce much of the rain the first half of November, but there could be enough rain to at least keep conditions from becoming too poor for developing soybeans.

THOUGH COOL, FAVORABLE RAIN IS FALLING IN ARGENTINA

Some isolated showers moved through Argentina over the weekend, but were not heavy. A couple of fronts will continue to push through the country this week with scattered showers. Overall, soil moisture is favorable, though cooler temperatures behind fronts have led to uneven growth for wheat and corn. Soybean planting will increase throughout the month of November, and could be helped by the frequent frontal passages. As long as the rain continues as a good pace, conditions will be favorable for future growth.

COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER EUROPE WITH LIMITED AREAS OF RAIN

A system developing in the eastern Mediterranean Sea produced scattered showers for Italy and southeastern Europe over the weekend, the latter of which really needed the rain. The system continues eastward into the Black Sea early this week with continued showers. A complicated weather pattern may bring some areas of showers to western Europe this week as well, which could still use some more soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

SOILS STILL DRY IN WESTERN RUSSIA AND NEED RAIN

A few showers went through Ukraine over the weekend, but western Russia stayed mostly dry, which has been the usual weather pattern for the last couple of months overall. A system moving through the Black Sea may bring some showers through this week, but is not forecast to produce widespread heavy rain that western Russia needs. It is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next month from north to south.

RAINFALL IN AUSTRALIA BECOMING LESS BENEFICIAL AS WINTER CROPS MATURE

Some showers moved through Australia over the weekend, but were light. After showers leave the east Monday or Tuesday, it should be drier for the rest of the week. More of the winter wheat and canola are heading toward maturity and rainfall will be less helpful going forward for winter crops. Any rain would be more beneficial for improving soil moisture for summer crops, though.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR CANOLA AND WHEAT IN CHINA

Favorable rain fell across south-central China over the weekend, improving soil moisture for winter wheat and canola. Additional favorable rain is forecast there this week and again this weekend. Corn and soybean areas farther north are forecast to be much drier, which should continue good harvest weather overall.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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