Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A pair of systems that will move through the U.S., and areas of dryness in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH RAIN AND SNOW IMPACTS

Temperatures continue above normal in the Midwest for the next few days. A pair of systems will move through over the next few days. The first will be largely rain for Thursday into Friday with some limited northern snow, but the second will have access to some colder air that should bring through a band of snow and a brief burst of lake-effect snow. Temperatures may drop for a day or so, but are forecast to rise again next week. Clipper systems moving through next week will eventually bring back some colder air, but maybe not until the end of the week.

POTENTIAL SNOW TO END THE WEEK FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures continue to be above normal in the Central and Southern Plains, which has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat. A system is moving through early on Thursday with mostly rain followed by another on Friday, which will have access to some colder air and produce a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures should rise again next week. The shot of colder air is not a harsh one, but areas not covered in snow could see some issues with winterkill in the short-term. There is a much larger long-term risk for when significant cold air inevitably returns, maybe at the end of next week or just after.

NORTHERN PLAINS STAYING WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK

Temperatures continue to be largely above normal in the Northern Plains into early next week with little interruption. Some spotty showers may move through on occasion, but the main storm track will bypass the region. Clipper systems will be possible next week, though the track may be to the east. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to temperatures because of this, but there is a threat of cold air returning by late next week.

LOW WATER LEVELS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER GETTING A BUMP FROM TWO STORMS

Water levels along the Mississippi River are low and falling for the next few days. A pair of systems will bring widespread rain Thursday and especially Friday, and should provide a meaningful boost. But this is not a long-term solution to the low water levels and transportation concerns. The setup for that may have to wait until February, but is expected to arrive.

RAIN IN EAST-CENTRAL BRAZIL THINNING OUT

Scattered showers in central Brazil were heavy over the last week, but are thinning out to end the week. The recent rain is helpful for soybeans as more and more of the crop is setting pods. That process accelerates throughout January, the most important month for rainfall in the country. But with soil moisture still running very low, the coverage of showers will be more important than normal over the next six weeks or so. Shower coverage may increase with time next week. Southern areas are still in much better shape. A front moving in on Thursday will produce some more beneficial rounds of rainfall into the weekend and may linger over Parana for next week.

SOUTHERN ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO BE DRIER

Rainfall has been running below normal for a while across southern and central Argentina while northern areas have had much better coverage and amounts in recent weeks. The same is true with a front moving through over the next two days. Northern areas are getting better rainfall coverage and amounts, where conditions are largely favorable. Heat stress has been minimal so far this season however, allowing the water that is still in the soil more time to be beneficial for developing corn and soybeans across the south. But this is an area to watch for falling crop conditions.

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS EUROPE

Soil moisture is still favorable across most of Europe for dormant winter wheat across the north and vegetative winter wheat in the Mediterranean. A very active weather pattern continues through next week, which will maintain this trend. It continues to be colder over northern areas though, which may leave some exposed areas at a minor risk of winterkill in Poland and the surrounding areas.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING NEEDED PRECIPITATION, COLD AIR COMING NEXT WEEK

The weather pattern is becoming a bit more active in the Black Sea region, which is favorable for building some snowpack and soil moisture for dormant winter wheat. Warmer temperatures over the next few days could threaten to melt a good portion of that recent snow and models suggest that colder air will return next week, which could be threatening in some areas that remain barren of snow.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture continues to fall in many areas of Australia, though some eastern areas have decent soil moisture after recent rains at the end of December. Dry weather continues for most areas through next week and will not be favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and sorghum.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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