Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Three hurricanes and their remnants producing widespread precipitation through next week, and a continued focus toward South America planting are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

REMNANTS OF ISAIAS TO BRING SHOWERS TO MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND

Dry weather this week has allowed fields to dry out and producers to get back out for harvest, winter wheat planting, and other fieldwork in the Midwest. Some showers may spread into the region from late Saturday into early Monday due to the remnants of Hurricane Isaias moving through, though the coverage and intensity of rain are uncertain. Otherwise, the next chance for significant rain will hold off until about the middle of next week with a system moving through. While we are getting a better window for fieldwork, there is some potential that next week's system could bring through a lot of rain again.

DRIER WEATHER IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT RAIN FORECAST NEXT WEEK

Dry, warm, and sunny weather has helped soils to dry and producers to get out and resume fieldwork in the Central and Southern Plains. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, drought is still a big issue in the region. However, a system will likely move through next week with scattered showers. Models are having a tough time with the forecast, but the potential is there and may include some tropical moisture that could produce areas of heavy rain. That would likely stall fieldwork again, but help to reduce drought.

NORTHERN PLAINS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND

Dry weather this week has aided in fieldwork progress in the Northern Plains. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into next week. There should be enough cold air for some accumulating snow in some areas, but most likely in Montana. The specifics of which are being worked out, but should come late Sunday into early Monday. Another system is likely for the middle of next week with more rain. Even if there is no snow, the precipitation should disrupt fieldwork.

HURRICANE ISAIAS BRINGING SOME RAIN TO DELTA THIS WEEKEND

Drought continues to grow in the Delta, but recent heavy rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Hurricane Isaias will continue to strengthen in the Gulf, moving northward and spreading some rain into the region this weekend. Despite that, rainfall amounts may not be heavy enough to significantly improve soil moisture in the region, though confidence is still somewhat low. After Isaias moves by, dry weather should resume until the end of next week when a system is likely to move through.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL, LIMITED RAIN NORTH

Southern Brazil will continue to have fronts move in with daily scattered showers through next week, which could create some flooding concerns, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers aren't developing just yet. Models suggest better development later next week, but they will need to come or we could see dryness issues developing quickly this month.

COOL AND RAINY IN ARGENTINA

Below-normal temperatures have been a concern in Argentina so far this spring, keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south. Otherwise, the weather pattern is favoring more widespread showers across the country through next week, which is more favorable for developing wheat and corn planting after the last few months of inadequate rainfall.

SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH EUROPE WITH GOOD RAINFALL

A system continues to move east through Europe, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of the continent. The weather pattern will stay active across northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south may be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA REGION STILL DRIER

Recent dryness has helped producers do fieldwork, but has created mixed conditions for winter wheat establishment with fair conditions in Ukraine, but poorer conditions in western Russia. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with only spotty showers now in Ukraine with a front on Friday and another system this weekend. Western Russia is forecast to stay drier through next week now, which is very unfavorable there.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA DURING DRIER OVERALL PATTERN

A system brought a few showers to western Australia on Wednesday and will bring some to eastern areas for Friday and Saturday, but with limited coverage and intensity. Another system could bring some heavier showers to eastern areas Sunday and Monday, but that is uncertain. While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

LIMITED DISRUPTION TO ONGOING HARVEST IN CHINA

Though there has been some disruption to the corn and soybean harvest in central and northeast China over the last week or so, dry weather this week and much of next should promote better harvest conditions. Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment in south-central China, but more rain would be favorable there.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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