Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a heat wave for the U.S. next week, but limited rainfall with it, and continued heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

END OF HEAT WAVE FOR MIDWEST NEXT WEEK

It continues to be very hot and humid across the Midwest for the next couple of days. However, thick wildfire smoke and some scattered showers will be in the area through the weekend, which may help to keep temperatures down a couple of degrees. A front will come through this weekend with a second front moving through on Monday and Tuesday. The second one will bring much cooler air in for next week. Those two fronts plus some additional disturbances could bring through some meaningful rain in some areas, but will miss others. How widespread all that rain becomes will be significant for the stress that will have occurred to all crops this week. Corn remains in a particularly vulnerable state as it continues to go through pollination, but soybeans could see some stress as well.

CENTRAL PLAINS GETTING HOTTER, FRONT LIKELY TO STALL NEXT WEEK

Heavy rain and flooding has occurred in parts of Texas this week, which continues there through Saturday. That will help to keep temperatures down while areas across the Central Plains bake in a summer heat wave. The heat will come to an end as a front pushes through early next week. The heat will reduce soil moisture while increasing the need for irrigation, causing stress. Though we have seen improvements in the drought in recent weeks, this heat wave could reverse that quickly in some areas. However, the front moving in next week may stall in the region. If it does, we could see some enhanced rainfall at times.

HEAT WAVE ENDING IN NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

The heat wave continues in the Northern Plains for the next few days before a front moves through with relief on Sunday into Monday. Soil moisture continues to evaporate quickly and damage to developing crops and forages is occurring. Even with the heat wave over next week, temperatures are likely to remain above normal in Montana while rainfall may be sparse, prolonging issues.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME WARMTH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies is on the edge of a heat wave and some significant heat will make its way into the west over the next couple of days ahead of another system that moves through this weekend. But even after this system moves through, western areas are likely to remain above normal next week. Periods of showers will continue into next week but will be somewhat limited in scope and intensity. Some heat and limited rainfall would actually be preferred to accelerate growth after a rather mild and wet last few months.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

Showers have been frequent in the Delta this week, but are migrating northward into the Midwest. The showers have been keeping temperatures down to more seasonable levels, but will be warmer now with them largely gone. A front clearing through next week will bring more showers and milder temperatures, with conditions remaining overall favorable for reproductive soybeans and cotton.

RELIEF FOR EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE, BUT STILL HOT IN FRANCE

A system is moving across Europe through Saturday. This is bringing widespread showers through the continent and some cooler air. Despite this, temperatures are still forecast to remain above normal in western Europe through next week, continuing to damage corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas will be milder with more showers, a bit more favorable for crops there.

RAIN SHIFTING TO UKRAINE WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH

A system moving through Europe will slowly pulse through the Black Sea region this weekend and next week in a few waves, continuing to provide plenty of rainfall, though mostly for Ukraine. Temperatures will be mild in Ukraine, but a bit warmer in western Russia, more favorable for crop growth after some rather wet and cool conditions for the first half of the season. Showers could disrupt the remaining wheat harvest.

STARTING TO SLOWLY GET DRIER IN AUSTRALIA

After some showers earlier this week, conditions should be drier overall across eastern Australia through next week. Across the west, a front will produce showers in a couple of waves into the weekend, being favorable there. The building El Nino should eventually favor drier conditions across the country, and it may be becoming drier with time going into late July and August. If the drier trends hold beyond that, it would come during a more vulnerable period for both wheat and canola as they get into reproductive stages.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA

Areas of rain continue to move through central China after some heavier rain early this week. Though some flooding is occurring, it is over limited corn and soybean acres. More areas of rain will move through into next week, but favor areas that are not flooding, and hitting more corn and soybean areas to the north and northeast, being favorable for reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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