Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A brief disruption to an overall warmer pattern in the U.S., a forecast of better rainfall in central Brazil that needs to verify, and recent heavy rain in southern Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WARM EARLY, COLD LATE THIS WEEK IN MIDWEST

Some areas of the Midwest saw frost over the weekend, but it continues to be fairly warm for early November. However, we will see a cold front moving through on Wednesday. A system forming along it could produce widespread showers into Thursday. Colder air will fill in behind the front and system, which may be cool enough to produce lake-effect showers and some limited snow into the weekend. However, warmer temperatures will spread through the region going into next week.

LARGELY WARM AND DRY IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

It was largely warm and dry in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, though some showers went through Texas. A cold front moving through on Tuesday night and Wednesday is expected to remain dry while bringing through a brief burst of milder air. Warmer air returns at the end of the week. The weather pattern looks to become more active next week with more periods of showers moving through, helping to increase soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

SMALL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH, BUT OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

It was warm and dry in the Northern Plains over the weekend. Outside of a few showers moving through on Tuesday, that should remain the case through the weekend. Scattered showers may be more frequent next week as the weather pattern turns more active.

DRYNESS PROBLEMS CONTINUE FOR DELTA

It was a little cooler over the weekend, but warm and dry weather continues to be a concern for drought in the Delta. Some limited showers will move through on Wednesday, but will not be heavy as drought remains a problem. The weather pattern is forecast to become more active next week, but may take until the end of the week to get showers into this area.

CENTRAL BRAZIL FORECAST TO SEE GOOD RAINFALL, BUT WILL NEED TO VERIFY

Scattered showers developed over the weekend for both southern and central Brazil, but amounts were more limited in central Brazil, especially in Mato Grosso. A front stalling there could continue showers throughout the week, and another system may enhance showers at the end of the week, but this rain needs to verify. Showers have been coming frequently enough, but amounts have been below normal in central Brazil. If they continue to come at a below-normal clip, soybeans will continue to have issues with below-normal soil moisture and put the crop at risk of a dry stretch later in the season. Southern areas continue to have a bit too much rainfall, which is causing concerns for waterlogging, nutrient leaching and weed pressure.

OVERALL FAVORABLE GROWING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Areas of showers went through Argentina over the weekend and brought in another round of cooler air. Recent cool air has led to uneven growth for wheat and corn thus far. With soybean planting increasing in November, the frequent frontal passages have been allowing for good soil moisture to continue and will be in mostly favorable condition. This pattern looks to continue for a while yet.

WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING THROUGH EUROPE

Some isolated showers moved through western Europe over the weekend. Several systems moving through this week should produce more widespread precipitation across the continent, including over Spain, which really needs the rain for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern may continue to be busy through next week as well. This should be overall favorable for most areas.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BLACK SEA REGION A BIT LATE TO BE HELPFUL

Some limited showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but western Russia has been very dry this fall, leading to poor conditions for winter wheat establishment. The weather pattern will become a bit busier this week, bringing through areas of beneficial showers. However, it is getting late for precipitation to have much of an impact on improving conditions as average temperatures continue to fall through November and crops will be shutting down for the winter over the next few weeks.

WINTER CROPS MATURING IN AUSTRALIA IN GOOD CONDITION

It was overall dry this weekend, favoring drydown and early harvest of winter wheat and canola in Australia. Some disturbances will move through this week and produce limited areas of showers, but most areas should stay dry. Any rain will be largely too late for winter wheat and canola, but should help to maintain or even improve soil moisture for early cotton and sorghum.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR WINTER CANOLA AND WHEAT IN CHINA

Scattered showers went through central China over the weekend, favorable for winter wheat and canola development, but causing some delays to what remains of corn and soybean harvest. With another round of showers moving through south-central China later this week, overall favorable conditions continue for winter crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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