Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A heatwave across the eastern half of the U.S. but with rainfall along its edge that should limit the heat's impact, continued showers across the Canadian Prairies, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

EXTREME HEAT IN THE MIDWEST, BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN

A front to the west and across the north is a focal point for producing periods of showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest throughout the rest of the week. Storms will favor the north with pockets of heavy rain and severe weather, the areas that have been somewhat drier in June. Temperatures will be extremely hot and humid. By the end of the week, the humidity will likely be too much, causing pop-up showers and thunderstorms across the region. A weak system slowly moving through this weekend will be the end of the extreme heat, but it will still feel like summer next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will still move through at times into next week as well. Overall, this is a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN SUMMER HEAT

A front continues to be stuck from Minnesota to southeastern Colorado and will waffle in the Central and Southern Plains for the rest of the week. Temperatures continue to be excessive east of the front while it will be a little cooler and drier to the west of it. The front will be a point where showers have been and continue to develop over the next few days, but areas of substantial precipitation should be low in coverage. That will cause some stresses for some areas that continue to be drier, even after last week's rainfall. A system moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down several degrees. The potential for precipitation next week is a bit uncertain with key model differences. Shower potential will be very hit-or-miss, leading to some areas of good weather and some areas of poor weather for developing corn and soybeans. Those with wheat yet to harvest will have better opportunities to do so.

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Disturbances will continue to move through the Northern Plains through next week, continuing a somewhat active pattern through the region for the first half of July. Rainfall should help to ease drought, but may come with some periods of severe weather. Mild temperatures will have a tendency to rise next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A big storm that has produced a lot of precipitation and severe weather over the last several days is exiting the Canadian Prairies on Wednesday. However, disturbances moving through behind the system will keep some showers going for the rest of the week and probably next week as well. The rainfall is overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of flooding will leave some wishing for drier weather.

HOTTER WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE DELTA

It has been hot and dry in the Delta this week, but moisture coming up from the Gulf will produce isolated showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday and will get a boost from a system moving through this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will then fall back closer to normal for next week. As long as some of this rain falls over the entire region as forecast, the conditions will not be too bad. However, if we do not see the forecast rainfall, then there could be some stress.

HOT AND DRY ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

The extreme heat of last week and weekend is easing in Europe, and eastern areas are seeing some beneficial rainfall. However, the heat will return to western areas over the next few days and continue through next week. This will particularly hurt corn and other summer crops in France, but should have impacts to adjacent areas as well. Meanwhile, eastern areas of the continent should have more luck with systems passing through, producing widespread rainfall, and more favorable temperatures through most of next week.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A couple of systems will move through the Black Sea region this week and next, with models targeting Ukraine with the most precipitation. Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn in western Russia, the recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. Drier weather this week has promoted drydown and harvest for wheat across the south.

OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

A system continues in southeast Australia with a few more showers and we should see another system moving into the west next week. This year's El Nino has yet to bring the drier influence it typically does and winter wheat and canola are in largely good condition during establishment. However, El Nino's influence usually increases over the next couple of months, which may have a more damaging impact yet this season when crops go through their reproductive stages.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in northeast China. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain have been promoting wheat and canola harvest, but showers will be increasing in July as the harvest winds down and summer crops continue to develop. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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