Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Daily showers in the U.S. Plains, but a focus toward South American planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR THE MIDWEST

With a front now far south of the Midwest, most areas will be dry for the rest of the week. Even so, some showers may get into Ohio on Wednesday and western areas later this week and maybe this weekend, too. The recent heavy rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with some of the drought across the north and southwest.

RAIN CONTINUING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend. While some areas in the southeast didn't receive a whole lot of rain, many areas in the north and west did. That is favorable for any immature crops, but moistening soils for winter wheat planting and establishment, which has been in significantly building drought for months in many places. Areas of showers will continue this week, but will be spottier. However, some western areas could see some significant coverage midweek.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Rain has been somewhat frequent and widespread in the Northern Plains lately. More showers will move into the Dakotas on Wednesday and Thursday with a small system moving through, and more are expected this weekend. All the rain chances will be helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

HARVEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Harvest continues to be well behind schedule in the Canadian Prairies, and recent rain has produced quality issues. However, drier and warmer conditions through much of this week should be more favorable. That could be somewhat short-lived with another system moving through with potential for widespread rain on Friday and Saturday. Models are not producing much precipitation with this system, however, which would be beneficial if true.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE DRY, BUT MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS STABLE

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta over the last week, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily, even though some showers will move through on Tuesday.

RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL BRAZIL AT TIMES AS WET SEASON APPROACHES

Heavy rain moved back into southern Brazil over the weekend and into Monday. While it may have produced some flooding, soil moisture is favorable for rapid planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. The responsible front will push some showers into central Brazil over the next couple of days. Any rainfall there will be favorable ahead of the primary planting season, which begins with the start of the wet season rainfall next week. Any fronts coming up from the south will only enhance the planting pace, one or two of which are forecast next week.

ONLY LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED IN ARGENTINA

Some rain went through southern Argentina over the weekend, but it has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting. More cold air is rushing in early this week, with another shot forecast for early next week as well. As long as temperatures stay down and rain remains sparse, corn planting will be off to a slow start this year. Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up through October.

DRIER WESTERN EUROPE UNFAVORABLE FOR WINTER PLANTING

Eastern Europe will see some spotty showers this week. Meanwhile, it will be warmer and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain. There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and still around Hungary as well.

SYSTEM SETTLING INTO THE BLACK SEA REGION

Soil moisture continues to be low, but not critical in much of the Black Sea region. However, a system moving into the region will sit and spin for several days this week, which could help many areas to see increasing soil moisture. The rain could make the ongoing corn harvest a bit more difficult, though.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING DRY WITH SOME LIMITED SHOWERS WEST

Though a few showers went through Western Australia, most of the country's wheat belt was dry this weekend. Some showers may hit the west throughout the week, with the better chances on Friday and Saturday. But eastern areas look to remain dry for the next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola.

FAVORABLE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR CHINESE HARVEST

It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China through most of the week, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry. Fronts may become a bit more active late this week into early October.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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