Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The end of a stretch of record warmth and a more chaotic forecast for the U.S., and an uneven distribution of rain in South America are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

ABOVE NORMAL MIDWEST TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS WEEKEND

Warmer air flooded the Midwest this week. A system moving through on Friday is bringing some showers, mostly as rain and freezing rain to northeastern areas. A stronger system will move through Sunday and Monday with strong winds, rain changing to snow, a burst of some colder air, and lake-effect snow. A clipper moving through in the middle of next week will bring through another band of snow and much colder temperatures for a few days.

RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH ENDING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures have been extremely warm in the Central and Southern Plains this week. A cold front will move through this weekend with a significant temperature drop and limited showers. Temperatures will rise early next week, though. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with soil moisture falling for winter wheat areas. Warmer air has been awakening wheat as well, which will reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns in January.

NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE STORM TRACK, BUT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS

Cold air lurking in Canada has been leaking into the Northern Plains at times this week and should continue over the weekend and again next week. That will come with a couple of systems that should bring through some limited showers.

MIDWEST SNOWMELT CAUSING SMALL BUMP FOR MISSISSIPPI RIVER, MORE RAIN NEEDED

Snowmelt across the Midwest brought a limited boost to water levels on the Mississippi River this week, but will not be able to get it above concerning levels. Though some showers will move through this weekend, an overall dry forecast into January is concerning for river transportation.

RAIN FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD IN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

A front stalled across southern Brazil has been producing widespread and largely beneficial rainfall throughout the week. Showers have become very isolated over west-central Brazil while east-central areas have been very hot and dry, concerning for soybeans that continue to get into the pod-fill stage. That will accelerate in January. Rain is forecast to move back into these areas next week, though.

VERY FEW SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

A front stalled across far northern Argentina has been bringing largely beneficial rain this week, though some areas may have seen some flooding. Another front will move through this weekend with scattered showers. Despite a drier stretch of weather across the south, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, but moisture levels are falling. Rain from the front this weekend is forecast to be sparse and dry weather next week could mean stresses for developing corn and soybeans.

IMPROVED SOIL MOISTURE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

Showers across the Mediterranean this week have been favorable for vegetative winter wheat across southern Europe. Soil moisture is favorable across much of the rest of Europe for dormant winter wheat. Showers are forecast to be much lighter next week, focusing on northeastern areas.

BLACK SEA REGION SEEING ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW, COLDER AIR

Dryness is still an issue for winter wheat that went into dormancy in mixed condition in the Black Sea region. Snow is moving through on Friday and several other bursts of largely light snow are forecast to fall this weekend and next week. Ukraine is favored over southwest Russia and that may be important as temperatures drop. Areas without adequate snow cover could see some winterkill.

MORE DRY WEATHER FOR AUSTRALIA

Soil moisture is still mixed around Australia's wheat belt. It has been drier most of this week and only spotty showers are forecast to end the year. Wheat and canola harvest is nearing the end with overall favorable conditions. Meanwhile, cotton and sorghum planting is nearly completed and is finding some unfortunate dryness in a lot of areas, causing stress.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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