Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A hot and dry southern U.S., a busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and a gradual turn to South America are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

HOTTER WITH FREQUENT RAIN FOR MIDWEST

A front remains across the northern end of the Midwest that should be active for most of the week. It should drop south through the region this weekend with some showers across the East. Another front is likely to settle across northern areas this weekend into next week. South of these fronts, temperatures will be quite warm, stressing the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but pushing other areas farther into maturity. Northern areas could see some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields.

SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES

It will remain hot across much of the Central and Southern Plains throughout the week. A front waffling around and just north of Nebraska may be a constant feature this week, producing some areas of showers and thunderstorms. Areas near the Rockies could also see occasional showers, and a small tropical storm will bring a concentrated burst of rain to eastern Texas through Thursday, but much of the Southern Plains will be dry. This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, especially south, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

NEAR-DAILY SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY OR MAY NOT HELP WITH DROUGHT

The pattern should be somewhat busy across the Northern Plains for this week and next with near-daily showers and thunderstorms. That may mean better rain chances, but not necessarily heavier amounts that would help to reduce drought, at least not in all areas. Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could impact the continued spring wheat harvest.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, MORE RAIN COMING

A pair of systems moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and brought scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain, unfavorable for harvest and producing quality issues for mature grain out in the field. The region will be the target of a couple more systems through next week, both producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms and potential for more areas of heavy rain.

DELTA HOT AND DRY AGAIN THIS WEEK

It will remain very hot and mostly dry for much of the Delta this week, with a few spotty showers closer to the Gulf. That will push soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stress out any of the crop that is not yet mature; reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

BRAZIL STARTING SPRING IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SCATTERED RAIN

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and will push northward into central Brazil where some areas of showers may develop well ahead of the primary wet season, which is about a month away. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting, and for reproductive wheat across the South.

ARGENTINA NEEDS SOME RAIN AND WARMTH TO START PLANTING

A front pushed out of Argentina and into southern Brazil over the weekend, but didn't bring many showers. Much of the country has been rather dry over the last few months and needs rain in the short term for winter wheat. In the longer term, that rain is needed for corn and soybean planting, but that is several weeks ahead.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING

Scattered showers continue to move across Europe this week, mostly across the North. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but way too late to be beneficial for this year's crop. However, with winter crop planting starting up later this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial. The pattern may stay active next week as well, though those prospects are a bit uncertain.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through the week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA DRIER AGAIN THIS WEEK

Some southern areas may be scraped by showers this week, but the drier El Nino pattern is likely to continue across Australia, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola become reproductive over the next couple of weeks.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA GETTING DRIER, AVOIDING TROPICAL STORMS SO FAR

Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas in China this summer, largely supporting good grain production. It should be a bit drier this week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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