Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Quiet weather in the U.S. for the next few days, the increasing rainfall forecast in central Brazil, and showers across the rest of South America and parts of Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

QUIETER IN THE MIDWEST

A front brought heavy rain to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, disrupting harvest but improving drought conditions and bringing extra water into the Mississippi River system for transportation. A few showers may be possible Thursday and Friday, but drier weather should promote harvest. Another front is forecast to move into the region on Sunday and Monday and will likely stall into next week, which could mean more rain for some areas.

DRIER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front produced some areas of rain as it moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the past few days, that may have slowed down harvest progress in some areas, but those with winter wheat likely found the rain favorable. We could see a few spotty showers into the weekend, but drier conditions are likely, benefiting harvest. A system will send a cold front into the region this weekend that may stick around into next week with scattered showers.

DRY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM

Temperatures are rising in the Northern Plains after a couple of chilly days. A system will move through this weekend and could produce some areas of heavy rain and minor snow accumulations in Montana. We will have to see if another system can form in the region in the middle of next week as well. Drier conditions until then could allow for some significant harvest progress.

MISSISSIPPI WATER LEVELS SET TO HOLD OR RISE BRIEFLY BEFORE FALLING AGAIN

Showers that moved through the Delta on Monday caused drought reduction in some areas while heavy rain in the Ohio Valley will likely provide a boost to water levels on the Mississippi River into next week, at least to some degree. That will likely be brief, however, as drier weather is in place now through next week.

TRUE START TO WET SEASON COMING FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front in southern Brazil has been producing showers this week, favorable for planting and early growth. Central Brazil has been much drier over the last two weeks, unfavorable for soybean establishment after a round of rain got progress going well ahead of schedule in the region. Seeds that have been planted have been at risk of germinating and quickly dying until the rains become more consistent. Models have been consistent this week, suggesting that rainfall will fill in and be more typical of wet season rainfall starting on Friday and continuing thereafter. That should be supportive of soybeans going forward.

GOOD PLANTING CONDITIONS IN ARGENTINA

Most areas have good soil moisture for early corn planting and establishment in Argentina. Soybean planting will increase later in October when overnight lows are more reliably above 10 degrees Celsius. Another system is forecast to go through this weekend with widespread rainfall. Though there is a risk of hotter and drier weather this season due to the developing La Nina, conditions are favorable thus far.

MORE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EASTERN EUROPE

Scattered showers have been consistent in eastern Europe, especially the southeast, over the last week. A small disturbance may produce showers for parts of Spain over the next few days as well, which are sorely needed there for winter wheat establishment. Another system will move into eastern areas this weekend with more showers that may continue into next week, also supportive of building soil moisture, while bringing a burst of colder air that would not be.

RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE BLACK SEA

A system in southeastern Europe has been providing showers to western areas of the Black Sea region over the last week. However, many areas have seen little or no rainfall, especially in southwestern Russia, which is much drier. The system will spread rainfall throughout the region for the rest of the week and another settling in this weekend could continue those showers for at least some of next week. The region will take any and all rainfall that wishes to fall as drought continues to be extensive in much of the region, especially in the east.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Australia is in a drier stretch of weather that continues this week. Some winter wheat and canola areas are struggling with dryness while others are faring much better. The country would like more consistent rainfall as crops go more into reproductive and filling stages, but the forecast is not supportive of that. Instead, smaller areas of showers that are mostly below normal are in the forecast through next week.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF CHINA

Weather continues to be mostly favorable for corn and soybean harvest in northeast China, though colder weather may slow down progress. Central China continues to see regular showers through next week, favorable for more winter wheat and canola planting and establishment.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.