Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Multiple periods of rain that will hit a lot of drought areas in the U.S., a return to dryness in Europe, and recent rainfall in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEST

A front has pushed south of the Midwest. Severe weather and flooding have been issues this week, particularly across the south. Otherwise, the rainfall has been largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture. Another weaker system will move through late Thursday through Saturday with more scattered showers. The front to the system could bring showers to southern areas through next week at times as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

PERIODS OF ALMOST DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front is stalling down around Texas, where periods of showers will occur well into next week. Another system is moving across the Central and Southern Plains through Friday with more scattered showers. The pattern will be messier next week, which will provide more opportunities for precipitation throughout the region as well. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall both this week and next that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. It is largely too late for wheat. In addition, cold air may have caused frost damage in the northwest on Tuesday and northeast on Wednesday.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures were well below normal the last few days, producing some frosts and freezes in the Northern Plains. Temperatures are moderating, with frost chances diminishing. Showers are moving back in with a small system moving through Friday. The pattern will be messier next week, but may include a few chances for rain as well. Though the frosts may have been somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

SPORADIC SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the Canadian Prairies through the end of next week. That should help to increase soil moisture, but should not be heavy enough to discourage planting in most areas. Though planting continues to be behind schedule, producers will find a way. Once the crop is in the ground, plants will find good soil moisture for a while. The pattern does encourage some colder air returning next week in the west, a factor to watch for potential frosts.

STALLED FRONT BRINGING DAILY SHOWERS TO THE DELTA

A front is stalling in the Delta, which will bring through daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through a good portion of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

DRIER IN MOST OF BRAZIL

Wheat planting continues to increase across far southern Brazil and is dependent on showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana on Friday with more showers possible across the far south later next week. Safrinha corn has been suffering outside of the far southern growing areas, which continues as fill progresses.

RECENT FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN EUROPE, BUT GETTING DRIER AGAIN

Recent widespread rainfall has been overall favorable for much of the wheat and corn crops in Europe. Temperatures are increasing this week and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. And drier weather is generally expected through next week. Some areas that are on the cusp of being too dry will find the conditions stressful.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, COLDER NEXT WEEK

An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the Black Sea region over the weekend continues to bring showers for the next few days. Drier areas in the west have been finding more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall, a very favorable situation for much of the region. A larger system may move through next week with more widespread precipitation, but also some colder air.

SOME SHOWERS AMDIST DRIER PATTERN IN AUSTRALIA

A system brought some areas of heavy rainfall to eastern Australia this past weekend. That has increased soil moisture a bit, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. A few isolated showers will move through the west on Thursday, and through the east Sunday and Monday. The pattern is also looking a little more busy with occasional showers next week. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

MORE SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central areas of China, but flooding was outside of the primary growing regions. Some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for corn and soybeans. Models have increased chances for precipitation in these areas for Friday, this weekend, and next week, which would be welcomed. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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