Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent heavy rainfall across the central U.S., frosts this past weekend and more on the way, isolated showers in central Brazil, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE RAIN COMING TO MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Heavy rain and severe weather moved through the western Midwest on Friday, with weaker showers in the east on Saturday, and some spotty showers leftover on Sunday. Cold weather also settled in with widespread frosts and some freezes. Damage to wheat may be possible, but not likely to corn or soybeans as emergence is really low across the region. After several warmer days this week, another front will move through on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers, but also bringing in some colder air, at least to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cold air through the region. Western areas may see drought, especially the northwest, while it is more uncertain farther east. The colder forecast may slow down planting intentions, however, as the colder regime will stick around into early May.

RECENT FROSTS DAMAGING WHEAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It was dry and cold in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, with many frosts and freezes in the north and west. Extremely cold temperatures on Saturday morning may have caused damage to some of the wheat or caused corn and soybean planters to sit in the barn for a few extra days. Though it will be warmer early this week, a front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to last into early May. Some showers will move through with the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. A better chance for precipitation comes with another system moving through on Sunday. Though it will be brief, precipitation may be widespread and cover some of the dry areas in the west. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost that could be a concern.

STRONGER STORM AND FALLING TEMPERATURES COMING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A few streaks of snow moved through, but it was mostly dry and cold in the Northern Plains over the weekend. Though a few warm days are in the forecast early this week, a system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air. Accumulating snow will be possible with that system, especially in Montana. That cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature.

MORE COLD AND SNOW FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Extremely cold air lingered across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the weekend, though temperatures rose on Sunday. After a few warm days, another system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, creating widespread precipitation, but as a mix of rain and heavy snow, which will linger around the region into the weekend. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point, unless models make drastic changes to the forecast.

DROUGHT STILL GROWING IN THE DELTA DESPITE WEEKEND RAIN

Scattered showers moved through the Delta on Saturday, but it was not the heavy rain that the region needed to reduce the increasing drought, which is becoming a major concern for this season. Drier weather is expected most of the week, with a front moving through on Friday into Saturday that could bring through some needed showers. Another front should do something similar for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Despite this, widespread heavy rain that the region needs is not in the forecast going into early May.

VERY DRY IN MUCH OF BRAZIL

A few showers dotted Mato Grosso, but most of Brazil was dry over the weekend. Those spotty showers continue this week. A front will move into the far south this week, stalling and producing showers for Rio Grande do Sul. The rest of central Brazil will be drier and hotter this week, unfavorable for safrinha corn. The wet season rains have been shutting down early and the country will look to fronts to bring through showers from now on. Mato Grosso may get lucky over the next couple of weeks, but the prospects are not good elsewhere.

HEAVY RAIN IN ARGENTINA

A system moved into Argentina on Sunday and will linger through Tuesday, producing scattered showers. Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. It may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE GETTING SOME SHOWERS

A system moved through Europe over the weekend and continues to bring showers in the east on Monday and Tuesday, which has hit some of the drier areas in the northeast with some needed precipitation, but not many. The system is bringing in some colder air for eastern areas, and occasional showers will move through as well. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain this week as well, though drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue across the Black Sea region into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it will also be colder this week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace. It may discourage corn planting, however.

AUSTRALIA IS STILL TOO DRY

It was dry in Australia over the weekend, continuing the poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. Though a few showers will go through the southwest this week, eastern areas are forecast to stay drier, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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