DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...10 AT WHITE SULFUR SPRINGS, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...OKLAHOMA CITY, OK 5.18 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the Southwest and another in the Canadian Prairies. The two troughs will be moving eastward for the rest of the week. Meanwhile, a large ridge is developing behind the troughs in the West and push eastward this weekend. Another trough will move into the West early next week to take the place of the ridge, which would likely move eastward late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will rise again next week and be well above normal again. We will likely see a system move into the Plains near the end of next week with scattered showers, with it then moving eastward over the weekend. Milder air will likely follow behind the system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system in the Central Plains is spreading some showers into the region on Thursday. Colder air will be moving in behind the system for a day or so, but it will become much drier and warmer for the weekend and through much of next week. The next chance for precipitation would come at the end of next week, opening up a fairly good window for producers to do some fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to move through the region on Thursday with some areas of heavy rain across the south. A shot of colder air will move in behind the system, and may produce some light frosts for a couple of days, but warm air will flood the region again next week while the region dries out. Though the rain is disrupting harvest and other fieldwork, and some flooding across Oklahoma and Texas are unfavorable, any rain will be ultimately beneficial for winter wheat and other fall forages as well as reducing drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through the region through Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some colder air will follow behind the system for a couple of days, but will pop right back up going into early next week. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will occur, but unlikely to be long outside of Missouri, which has had some heavy amounts. Dry conditions after Friday will allow for the region to dry out again and for producers to return to the field.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought has been growing for some time now, but rainfall farther north has helped to keep the water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Even a front going through on Friday is forecast to be largely dry. Next week is forecast to be largely dry as well.

The drought will continue to grow until significant rain falls in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Heavy rain continues to shift from southern Brazil into central Brazil, allowing southern areas a chance to dry out a little bit. That would be favorable for both areas as it has been too wet in the south and too dry in the north. Models are suggesting that another system will move through southern Brazil later next week, which could bring back some heavy rain again, but would likely move into central Brazil as well, which would be more favorable.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Areas of light showers are expected to continue through next week, which is helping to increase soil moisture somewhat.

However, colder air has kept soil temperatures from rising very much this spring, which continues through next week. Southern areas may be slow to plant corn because of the cold, but increasing soil moisture should be overall favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern is complicated with a system meandering about the western half of the continent Friday through next week.

While some areas of favorable rain will occur, some areas will not. Overall though, western areas need more rain for winter crop planting and establishment, as do those in the southeast. The prospects for a lot of rainfall are fairly low, but not zero through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system stalling in Ukraine will continue to produce showers there through the weekend, but will be harder to find rain in western Russia. That is creating some mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment with somewhat favorable conditions west and poor conditions east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will continue to produce showers in the northeastern wheat belt into next week, otherwise it should remain fairly dry in a lot of areas, even with a couple of systems moving through.

Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A large system will move through Friday through the weekend with much more widespread coverage of rain that may cause disruption to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest in central and northeast China. However, this should help out winter wheat and canola areas to get some more moisture for establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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