DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A lot of moving parts are forecast across North America through next week.

There are a pair of troughs in central North America, one in Canada and the other in the U.S. Plains. Ridges are found in eastern Canada and in the North Pacific. The Canadian portion of the trough will guide the U.S. portion northeast over the next couple of days while the North Pacific ridge shifts westward to the Aleutians and allows another trough to dive into western Canada midweek. Another will completely replace the ridge in the North Pacific at the end of the week while a ridge builds over the Eastern U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

That eastern ridge is forecast to shift westward early next week toward the Rockies, forcing a trough to develop across the East.

The U.S. and European models are similar despite all the moving pieces. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A stalled front in the northwestern Corn Belt will produce scattered showers this weekend. It is likely to spread through the U.S. next week, but could be slow to do so. Temperatures will be hot ahead of the front, but should fall closer to normal behind it, maybe even below normal. A major hurricane, Erin, is forecast to approach the East Coast in the middle of next week. The front should keep it offshore, but will need to be watched.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...124 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...25 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...RALEIGH-DURHAM, NC 2.33 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A lot of moving parts are forecast across North America through next week.

There are a pair of troughs in central North America, one in Canada and the other in the U.S. Plains. Ridges are found in eastern Canada and in the North Pacific. The Canadian portion of the trough will guide the U.S. portion northeast over the next couple of days while the North Pacific ridge shifts westward to the Aleutians and allows another trough to dive into western Canada midweek. Another will completely replace the ridge in the North Pacific at the end of the week while a ridge builds over the Eastern U.S. That ridge is forecast to shift westward early next week toward the Rockies, forcing a trough to develop across the East.

The U.S. and European models are similar despite all the moving pieces. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A stalled front in the northwestern Corn Belt will produce scattered showers this weekend. It is likely to spread through the U.S. next week, but could be slow to do so. Temperatures will be hot ahead of the front, but should fall closer to normal behind it, maybe even below normal. A major hurricane, Erin, is forecast to approach the East Coast in the middle of next week. The front should keep it offshore, but will need to be watched.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed on Monday as a front passed through. An additional front will move in Wednesday night and bring sporadic showers into the weekend as it stalls. The front should completely move out early next week. The rain is favorable for filling corn and soybeans, but could continue to negatively impact wheat quality and harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to bring areas of heavy rain as it slips through the Southern Plains on Tuesday.

Sporadic showers may develop throughout the rest of the week before the next front moves into northern areas this weekend. Temperatures will be rising ahead of this front and could be stressful to some areas that are still on the drier side. The front will push through next week, bringing showers and a relief in temperature.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front continues through the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing some areas of heavy rain.

Flooding has been an issue in several areas from northern Missouri into southern Wisconsin over the last couple of days. Another front will move into northwestern areas later this week and stall a couple of days before moving eastward next week. Most areas should get chances for at least moderate rainfall over the next week to 10 days, helping with filling corn and soybeans.

However, areas of flooding could cause issues and some areas that get missed this week could see stress from rising temperatures ahead of of next week's front.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Some isolated showers fell across the region this weekend, but most areas were dry.

Showers should increase this week as a front slowly sags through the region and largely stalls, continuing showers into next week. Dry spots are popping up in the region and the rainfall will be important to finish out the crop. The tropics are also starting to become more alive and will need to be watched, though no immediate impacts are forecast for at least the next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Dry conditions and rising temperatures continue to bring spring wheat closer to maturity as harvest starts to rapidly increase and winter wheat finishes up. Only limited chances for rain are in the forecast this week to slow down that progress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of heavy rain over the last week have been favorable for later-developing crops, but have been a negative factor for maturing and early harvest in other areas. Those across the north and east have seen beneficial rainfall to reduce drought and could make for another cutting of hay as we see more rainfall chances coming through this week and weekend in two more waves of showers. It should also help to battle the wildfires across the north.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): It was drier but colder this weekend as some areas of frost were noted across the south. That may have had some impact on early developing wheat in a few spots, but overall should not have been all that damaging. Spring planting will begin in about a month as long as soil moisture is favorable across the south. It will be drier through the weekend, but we could see another front move in next week with showers across the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures this weekend led to widespread frosts and some freezes. Another front should bring another round of colder temperatures later this week and weekend. Wheat should still be vegetative and not be all that impacted from the cold, but will be heading later this month and is in need of some rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions will continue in most places through the weekend, though a front moving through later this week may produce some limited showers in a few lucky areas in the northeast. This will put stress on filling corn, but be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Though some showers are moving through northeastern areas, it continues to be very dry for much of the region. More reports of drought stress continue to pop up on social media as harvest continues for wheat and corn continues to fill. Good weather has come in short bursts this season, with stress due to heat and dryness more common than not.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front moved through Western Australia with showers over the weekend, favorable for building soil moisture there, but is losing its strength moving through eastern areas. Another front will do something similar later this week. Though wheat conditions are improving in the west, they've been more stagnant and fair in the east. Wheat and canola in the southeast should get into their reproductive stages later this month and could use some more rain in which to do so.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought needed rainfall to the North China Plain this weekend, which has endured bouts of hot and dry conditions throughout the season. The front responsible will continue showers in portions of central China for the rest of the week. Another disturbance is forecast for late week with some more favorable rain chances for filling corn and soybeans. Areas in the northeast have had more consistent rainfall and variable temperatures, with largely favorable weather for corn and soybeans there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered showers north Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers north Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal south and near to above normal north Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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