Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Grain Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Corn (Cash): The DTN National Corn Index (NCI.X, national average cash price) closed at $3.40 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support near $3.29 and initial resistance near $3.49 1/2. Weekly stochastics are neutral above the oversold level of 20%. National average basis strengthened by a 1/4 cent last week with Friday's NCI.X coming in about 26 3/4 cents below the close of the May futures contract. The 5-year average for national average basis last week is 21 cents under with the 10-year average calculated at 23 cents under.

Corn (Old-crop futures): The May contract closed 2.00cts higher at $3.67. The double-bottom between the previous low of $3.54 1/4 (from the week of January 4) and the recent low of $3.54 1/2 remains in place. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways, with weekly stochastics are growing more bullish. However, the minor (short-term) trend turned down Thursday, March 17 after a test of minor resistance at $3.70 1/4. Initial support is pegged at $3.66 1/4, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous minor uptrend from $3.54 1/2 through last Thursday's high of $3.72. The 50% and 67% retracement levels are down at $3.63 1/4 and $3.60 1/4 respectively.

Corn (New-crop futures): The December 2016 contract closed at $3.85 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways with support at the recent contract low of $3.73 1/4. However, the minor (short-term) trend turned down late last week. Initial minor support is at $3.84 1/2, then $3.81 3/4 and $3.78 3/4.

Soybeans (Cash): The DTN National Soybean Index (NSI.X, national average cash price) closed at $8.43 3/4, 1/4 cent higher for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks though the NSI.X needs to move above resistance at roughly $8.48 to clearly indicate a bullish breakout. National average basis weakened slightly again last week coming in at about 53 3/4 cents under the close of the May futures contract. The previous week saw national average basis calculated at 53 1/4 cents under.

Soybeans (Old-crop futures): The May contract closed at $8.97 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend still looks to be up with the futures contract posting a new 4-week high of $9.04 3/4. Next resistance remains at the previous high of $9.17 1/2 (week of December 6, 2015). Weekly stochastics are growing more bullish with the latest secondary signal a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20%. However, the minor (short-term) trend looks to have turned down given the bearish crossover by daily stochastics following the sell-off from last Friday's high $9.04 3/4).

Soybeans (New-crop futures): The November 2016 contract closed at $9.09 3/4, up 3 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. With weekly stochastics growing more bullish the initial target continues to be $9.28.

SRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN SRW Wheat National Index (SR.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.19 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned sideways again following last week's bearish close. Secondary support remains at the low of $4.02 1/4 while initial resistance is at the 4-week high, last week's high, of $4.34.

SRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Chicago contract closed at $4.70 1/4, down 12 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend turned sideways following last week's lower close. Support is at the contract of $4.49 1/2 while resistance is at last week's high, the new 4-week high, of $4.86 1/2.

HRW Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRW Wheat National Index (HW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.03 1/2, down 15 cents for the week. Despite last week's sell-off the secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged between $4.45 and $4.69 3/4, prices that mark the 23.6% and 33% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $6.41 1/2 through the recent low of $3.84 1/4.

HRW Wheat (New-crop futures): The July 2016 Kansas City contract closed at $4.80, down 13 cents for the week. Despite last week's sell-off the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up as the futures contract set a new 4-week high of $5.00. Weekly stochastics remains bullish above the oversold level of 20%.

HRS Wheat (Cash): The DTN HRS Wheat National Index (SW.X, national average cash price) closed at $4.59, down 11 1/2 cents for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend looks to have turned sideways again. Support is at the recent low of $4.48 while resistance is at the 4-week high, last week's high, of $4.76 1/2.

HRS Wheat (New-crop futures): The September 2016 Minneapolis contract closed at $5.23 1/2, down 5 3/4 for the week. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up though the contract came under pressure after testing resistance at $5.38 3/4. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.55 through the contract low of $5.02 3/4. The 33% retracement level is up near $5.53 1/2.

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