Technically Speaking

Weekly Analysis: Energy Markets

By Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
Source: DTN ProphetX

Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $1.67 higher at $40.39. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $41.25, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $69.63 through the low of $27.10. The next target area is between $43.35 and $48.36, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels respectively. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, still well below the overbought level of 80%.

Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed $2.58 higher at $38.50. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up. The spot-month contract is above resistance at $38.21, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $62.58 through the low of $26.05. The next target area is between $40.00 and $44.31, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels respectively. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, still well below the overbought level of 80%.

Distillates: The spot-month contract closed 5.67cts higher at $1.2180. The secondary (intermediate-term) is up with the spot-month contract working toward initial resistance at $1.4185. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.2633 through the low of $0.8487. Weekly stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%.

Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed 11.22cts higher at $1.4443. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, in line with the markets' seasonal tendency. The spot-month contract has moved above initial resistance at $1.4296, the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.1520 through the low of $0.8975. Next resistance is pegged at the 33% retracement level of $1.6482. Seasonally the market tends to rally through late April.

Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed 4.4cts higher at $1.430. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways-to-up. Weekly stochastics remain bullish, meaning momentum could take the spot-month contract above its previous high of $1.441, establishing a secondary uptrend.

Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed 15.6cts higher at $1.822. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend is sideways with the spot-month contract holding above its recent major (long-term) low of $1.611. However, the minor (short-term) trend is up with next resistance at $1.905. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the previous minor downtrend from $2.495 through the recent major low.

Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed 3.25cts higher at $0.4325. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up as cash propane pushes toward its previous high of $0.4700. However, weekly stochastics are nearing the overbought level of 80% meaning the uptrend could soon be coming to an end.

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