Technically Speaking

Corn: The July contract closed 8.00cts higher. The secondary trend is sideways despite weekly stochastics remaining bearish. The latter established a bearish crossover the week of April 6 but has failed to generate increased noncommercial long-liquidation. The July contract is holding near technical price resistance at $5.06 1/2, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.76 through the low of $4.21 3/4. As for breaking out of its sideways trend, the range is between the four-week high of $5.24 1/4 and the four-week low of $4.90 3/4.

New-crop Corn: The December contract closed 4.75cts higher. The secondary trend remains sideways with the contract holding between the four-week high of $5.17 and the four-week low of $4.87 1/2. Weekly stochastics remain bearish following the establishment of a crossover the week of April 7. Longer-term resistance remains near $5.03 1/2, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.14 through the low of $4.35. The 50% retracement level is at $5.24 1/2.

Soybeans: The July contract closed 16.25cts higher. Despite the higher weekly close, technical signals continue to indicate the secondary trend has turned down. The previous week saw the July contract establish a bearish reversal and a double-top formation with the recent high of $15.21 1/2. At the same time, weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%. Noncommercial traders continue to liquidate a portion of their net-long futures position with Friday's report showing a decrease of 28,439 contracts. This means the market is holding solely on buying interest from commercial interests. Technical support remains near $14.07 1/2, then $13.50 1/2. These prices mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $11.80 through the high of $15.21.

New-crop Soybeans: The November contract closed 3.75cts higher. Weekly stochastics continue to indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down following a bearish crossover established at the close the week of April 28. Initial support is pegged between $11.95 3/4 and $11.68 3/4, prices that mark the 33% and 50% retracement levels of the previous uptrend from $10.88 1/4 through the high of $12.49 1/4. The latter was a test of longer-term price resistance at $12.51 1/2, the 67% retracement level of the downtrend from $13.33 through the low of $10.88 1/4.

Wheat: The new-crop July Kansas City contract closed 7.00cts higher. While weekly stochastics continue to indicate the secondary (intermediate-term) trend is up, the contract appears to be losing bullish momentum falling well off its new high of $8.55 1/2. If the contract sees a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics this week, initial support would be pegged at $7.70. This price marks the 33% retracement level of the uptrend from $5.99 through this past week's high.

Cotton: The July contract closed 1.96cts lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains down. Initial support is pegged at 90.43, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from 77.74 through the high of 96.76. Next support would be the 50% retracement level of 87.25.

New-crop Cotton: The December contract closed 0.23ct lower. Last week's lower close coincided with a bearish crossover by weekly stochastics above 90%, indicating the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down. However, the strong uptrend in the December to March futures spread (reflecting a strengthening inverse) indicates the commercial outlook is growing more bullish. This could limit the downtrend to a test of support at 81.58, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from 75.25 through last week's high of 84.74.

Live Cattle: The June contract closed unchanged. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains sideways. Weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% back at the week of March 17, though the contract has continued to trend sideways to up. However, the June to August futures spread has moved into a strong downtrend, indicating a bearish change in commercial outlook. This could lead the June contract to a test of initial support near $133.83, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $121.575 through the recent high of $139.95. The four-week low of $133.925 is also near this price support level.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, May 6.

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