Technically Speaking

Ag Markets: Weekly Analysis

Darin Newsom
By  Darin Newsom , DTN Senior Analyst
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Corn: The May contract closed 25.5cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. However, weekly stochastics above 80%, indicating the contract is overbought, and nearing a possible bearish crossover. Secondary resistance remains at $5.01 3/4, the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $6.76 1/2 through the low of $4.14 1/2. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests adding 72,410 contracts to their net-long futures position.

Soybeans: The May contract closed 43.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend remains up with the May contract posting a new high of $14.60 last week. Major (long-term) resistance on the market's monthly chart is at $14.75 3/4, the 50% retracement level of the previous major sell-off from $17.89 through the low of $8.94. The weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercials reduced their net-long futures position by 1,452 contracts.

Wheat: The Chicago May contract closed 51.75cts higher. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend on the weekly chart remains up. Initial resistance is between $6.68 1/4 and $6.85, prices that mark the 33% and 38.2% retracement levels of the previous downtrend from $8.98 through the low of $5.53 1/2. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reducing their net-short futures position by 11,703 contracts.

Cotton: The May contract closed 4.13cts higher. The market reestablished its secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend, supported by renewed commercial buying interest. The May contract moved to a new high of 93.35 despite weekly stochastics that continue to indicate the market is overbought and nearing a downturn. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial interests reducing their net-long futures position by 754 contracts.

Live Cattle: The April contract closed 1.725 lower. The secondary (intermediate-term) trend appears to have turned down. Weekly stochastics established a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% with Friday's lower weekly close. Initial is pegged near $138.70, a price that marks the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $125.55 through last week's high of $146.825. Friday's weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed noncommercial traders reduced their net-long futures position by 2,383 contracts.

The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders report was for positions held as of Tuesday, March 4.

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