Market Matters Blog

Even though the tariff war between the U.S. and China has been extended to Nov. 10, 2025, the damage has already been done. China has not purchased any new-crop soybeans from the U.S. and because of that, farmers will suffer, especially in the Northern Plains where their soybeans would head to their local elevator and then bound for the Pacific Northwest for shipment.

There is no new-crop soybean basis posted for delivery to the PNW, and there has not been for months. Consequently, elevators that normally post a basis to their farmers reflecting a PNW bid have dramatically pulled back on their basis bids.

"This time of year, and in years in which trade disputes were a non-issue, China has typically ordered an average of 14% of its anticipated soybean purchases from the U.S. before soybean harvest begins in the Heartland, with a high of 27% ordered going into marketing year 2022-23. Other countries have not made up the difference either, with new-crop sales down 81% from the 5-year average," said the American Soybean Association (ASA) in an Aug. 20 article on their website.

Don't forget as of Oct. 14, the China vessel fee program is scheduled to start via the USTR-301, as announced by the United States Trade Representative. Jay O'Neil, of HJ O'Neil Commodity Consulting, mentioned in his weekly freight update Aug. 20, "No USTR-301 China vessel program updates have been released yet, but global shipping lines are already adjusting their vessel routes and schedules to avoid U.S. port fees."

In an email to DTN, Executive Director Soy Transportation Coalition Mike Steenhoek said, "There clearly are points of dispute and disagreement between the U.S. and China that need to be resolved. However, whenever there is friction between individuals or nations, I believe it is prudent to first take inventory of what, if anything, is going well within the relationship. That which is going well should be preserved as it can serve as a springboard and bridge to resolve the other areas of dispute. U.S. farmers providing food for China and other countries is one of those areas that has been going well. It is our hope that this will be protected and preserved."

FARMERS SPEAK OUT TO DTN

Paul Anderson, Coleharbor, North Dakota, told me Thursday, Aug. 21, "I booked all my expected production at -$1.00 bu. off the combine at CHS, Garrison, North Dakota. It's now -$1.10/bu. for October-November delivery." On Saturday, he sent me a note showing the basis at Garrison for new crop has now "eroded" to -$1.60X.

Chris Swenson said, "Usually our soybean basis in northwest Minnesota is -.60X to -.90X. We are now currently sitting at -$1.60X. The last time Trump was in office in 2018 it got down to -$2.25X."

As a reminder, in 2018, USTR posted a press release on Sept. 18, 2018, finalizing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports in response to China's unfair trade practices, "In accordance with the direction of President Trump, the additional tariffs will be effective starting Sept. 24, 2018, and initially will be in the amount of 10%. Starting Jan. 1, 2019, the level of the additional tariffs will increase to 25%."

Austin Riediger, Sibley, Iowa, said on Aug. 22, 2025, "Cargill Sioux City posted -.40X, -.30X for last-half Oct."

David Hankey, Park River, North Dakota, said, "We do all seed. Fortunately, have storage set aside."

Adam Bettenhausen, North Dakota, said, "Our beans will all get stored on farm until the first of the year, then they'll go to crush."

A farmer in northeast South Dakota told me on Thursday, Aug. 21, a local elevator in Oakes, North Dakota, was -$1.20X. He told me a few hours later that the posted basis was now -$1.30X.

Mark Breneman, Clayton, Indiana, said, "We haul our beans to either Bunge Indianapolis, or Bunge Morristown. Indy's fall basis is -.40X, Morristown is -.05X for first-half Sep, -.35X for fall. Morristown is an oil processing plant, so basis/demand has remained strong. Both locations are within normal fall basis with a big crop expected. I'm looking for them to tighten basis once combines start rolling and big yields aren't there."

Neil Clausen who farms in northeast Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota said, "I haul soybeans to a few different places and here is their posted basis right now for October/November as of Aug. 21: CVA/81-20 Grain, Randolph, Nebraska, is -.68X; Southeast Farmers Cooperative, Elk Point, South Dakota, is -.83X; and Norfolk Crush LLC, Norfolk, Nebraska, is -.50X. Basis has widened 5-10 cents the last two days."

Brady Dean, Kansas, said, "To my bin, then I have it picked up and usually hauled to AGP Hastings, Nebraska, is roughly -.55X FOB."

John Pfanner, Tredas, LLC, Madison, Alabama, a risk management consultant for farmers from Iowa to Alabama said new-crop basis is historically lower in many areas he covers. "ADM Quincy, Illinois, is -40X (typically in August we're between -10X and +10X for harvest delivery, so roughly 40c lower than normal). URSA Co-op, Canton, Missouri, is -55X (again 40-45c lower than normal). CGB East Hannibal, Missouri, is -66X (40-50c lower than normal) and ADM St. Louis is -40x (60c lower than normal.)"

"With terminals and processors paying levels this cheap already, the country elevators are running 30-40c less than these bids. So, basis at the country elevator in NEMO (northeast Missouri) for beans is running about -70X to -80X! Down here in Alabama we're in such a deficit area that basis looks crazy different but it's still much lower in the Mid-South and Southeast. Off 10-20c at processors like Bunge Decatur, Alabama, and Cargill Guntersville, Alabama."

On Aug. 22, Tim Rasmussen, west of Fergus Falls, Minnesota, said, "I'm 90% seed production so this basis crashing has hit me hard. Can't do basis contracts. CHS French, Fergus Falls, is at -$1.25X."

Justin Honebrink, central Minnesota, said on Aug. 22, "Local elevator is -1.45X and the big-name guy 25 miles down the road is -1.35X. Worst it's ever been."

Link to ASA Aug. 20 article: https://soygrowers.com/…

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

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