Fundamentally Speaking

USDA reported that corn inspections totaled 55 million bushels (mb) for the week ending Thursday, May 22, 2025.

Total inspections in 2024-25 are now at 1.850 billion bushels (bb), up 29% from the previous year, another sign that USDA is likely to boost our overseas corn sales projection even higher after a 50-mb hike in this month's WASDE report to 2.60 bb.

This chart shows the volume of U.S. corn sold and shipped as of the third week of May as a percentage of the USDA May WASDE export projection on the left-hand axis.

Also reported on the left-hand axis is the amount of U.S. corn shipped to sold also as of the third week in May.

On the right-hand axis is the amount of U.S. corn sold to unknown destinations as a percentage of the total of both known and unknown destinations as of the third week in May.

The last export sales report showed 2.491 bb of corn sold for the 2024/25 marketing year and of that total, 1.835 bb has shipped.

These are the second highest figures ever for this time of year next to the totals in the 2020/21 season, the year of record U.S. exports.

Total commitments are 95.8% of the May 2025 WASDE projection, the second highest ever next to the 2020/21 marketing year with 70.6% of WASDE projection already shipped, the second highest figure in that regard since the 2004/05 season.

That a large percentage of the corn sold has already shipped and the fact that both the sales and shipped figures are more than double the 13% increase the USDA sees for U.S. corn exports this year vs. a year ago, it does portend additional increases in the U.S. overseas sales in subsequent WASDE reports.

We do note that the 143.4 mb or 5.7% of total sales is to unknown destinations, both the highest figures since the 2017/18 season could be canceled if of Chinese origin as they have not bought any U.S. corn this year though it may be to a few EU destinations where chances of cancellations may be less.

Even so, U.S. corn values remain quite competitive even with this marketing year 75% complete as our window for overseas sales usually starts to close right about now.

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